Reborn Industrial Tycoon

Chapter 297 If you don’t say anything shocking, you will never stop until you die.

Compared with a few years ago, Xiao Yuanzheng has gained a lot of weight. The middle-aged man who used to look very capable has now grown into a fat man. Apparently, he has not escaped the law of getting fatter in middle age. Fortunately, his hair is still there.

"Director Li, it's not easy to find you! I called your clothing factory based on the phone number you left before, but no one answered. Later, when I asked someone about it, I found out that the clothing factory had closed down.

, then I asked around again and found out which electric furnace factory you went to..."

Xiao Yuanzheng's words are definitely exaggerated. With his ability, although it is not easy to find Li Weidong, it is not difficult either.

"Mr. Xiao, I really didn't expect you to come to me! If I had known earlier, I would have definitely paid a visit. How dare you condescend to come to Qinghe!" Li Weidong laughed, and then asked: "Mr. Xiao is still doing this now.

Foreign trade?”

"No, I was transferred to the State-owned Assets Administration Bureau last year." Xiao Yuanzheng said.

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission was established in 2003. Before that, the representative that performed the functions of state-owned assets was the State-owned Assets Administration Bureau. It has the ownership of state-owned assets, supervision and management rights, state investment and income rights, asset disposal rights and other functions. Its powers are very large.

.

Mintai Foreign Trade is originally a state-owned foreign trade company, and Xiao Yuanzheng is also a state cadre. His transfer to the State-owned Assets Administration Bureau is also a normal operation.

Li Weidong nodded in realization and immediately said: "Mr. Xiao has been promoted now. No, I can no longer teach you Mr. Xiao. I have to call you Director Xiao!"

"Director Xiao, I am a junior director of the State-owned Assets Administration Bureau." Xiao Yuanzheng replied with a smile.

However, Li Weidong knows that within the system, the title "director" is the most "mysterious". You never know how big an official a "director" is.

Xiao Yuanzheng continued: "Director Li, I haven't seen you in the past few years. You are also a big business. Your electrical appliance factory is not small. It also has a production line for microwave ovens, which are high-end household appliances. And I heard

You said you also have an agricultural machinery factory?"

"They are just some larger workshops, not worth mentioning." Li Weidong said with a smile.

Li Weidong is not humble. In front of the leaders of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau, his industry is really no more than a big workshop.

The two exchanged some pleasantries before Li Weidong asked: "Director Xiao, you came to Qinghe specifically to find me. What instructions do you have?"

"I want you to write an article." Xiao Yuanzheng said.

"Write an article?" Li Weidong was stunned for a moment, and then said, "I'm not a writer. It's not my turn to write an article!"

"You have to do this!" Xiao Yuanzheng continued: "You still remember, when we first met, you told me some about Japan's economic situation!"

Li Weidong nodded. In order to prevent Xiao Yuanzheng from underestimating him, he did talk about the development trend of Japan's economy after the "Plaza Accord".

Xiao Yuanzheng continued: "When I went home, I mentioned the things you mentioned to my old man. The old man thought it was very interesting, so he asked me to compile a report and show it to him later. I didn't mention it at the time.

I took this seriously, so I simply wrote down some content and submitted it.

Who would have known that two days ago, the old man came to me again and said that the Japanese economic development predicted in that report had all come true! So the old man asked me to write another report and talk about Japan's economic development in the next four to five years.

Trend. But how can I understand these things, so I came to find you!"

Li Weidong's heart suddenly tightened, and he asked: "Director Xiao, does the report you want need to be handed over to the leader again?"

"That should be the case. Otherwise, the old man at home wouldn't have specifically asked me to take out the report." Xiao Yuanzheng nodded.

Li Weidong hesitated for a moment, and finally asked: "Director Xiao, I also know that there are some things I shouldn't ask, but I still have to confirm that if this report is written, which leaders can see it? In this way, I

I also have some confidence in my heart.”

"I don't know!" Xiao Yuanzheng chuckled, and then said: "I really don't know, but even I don't know. That is definitely not a general-level leader. You can figure it out for yourself."

"I generally understand." Li Weidong nodded, and then said: "Then I will write a more detailed report, and you can select some suitable ones and report them to the leader."

"No, don't be like this!" Xiao Yuanzheng shook his head: "I'm very busy over there, so I don't have the time to get involved in this matter. If the leader takes a fancy to it, let me write four or five reports and forecasts.

Forecasting the economic development of the United States and Europe is too much for me! You will write this report and submit it with your signature, and I will have nothing to do with it!"

"My signature!" Li Weidong was shocked, and he instantly realized that this was a big opportunity!

Xiao Yuanzheng continued: "I have already told the old man at home that the report was written according to your instructions, so I will ask you to sign it this time. If the leader wants to read the report again in the future, let him

They will come directly to you! I won’t be the mouthpiece anymore!”

…

The report was to be handed over to the leader, so Li Weidong naturally had to pay special attention to it.

There have been too many scholars in later generations to study the rise and fall of the Japanese economy, and various conclusions have emerged one after another. Many of the studies and analyzes made by these scholars are also very reasonable.

Although scholars have different opinions on the Japanese economy, one thing is certain, that is, the Japanese economy has really lost a certain amount of money for thirty years.

When this statement was first proposed, it was in 2011, when a Japanese economist wrote a book called "Twenty Lost Years", which was about the growth of the Japanese economy in the two decades from the 1990s to 2010.

matter.

As a result, in 2020, the Japanese economy is still half-dead, so the lost twenty years have become a lost thirty years.

According to Xiao Yuanzheng's request, Li Weidong was asked to write a forecast for Japan's economy in the next four years, probably until 1995.

However, Li Weidong felt that only predicting until 1995 was obviously too mediocre. If he wanted to show his face to senior leaders, why should he boldly predict for another two years? It would be more appropriate to predict before the Asian financial crisis.

1995 was the peak of Japan's economy, at least in terms of numbers.

That year, although Japan's real estate and stock market had collapsed and a large amount of capital was trapped, the exchange rate of the Japanese yen reached its highest peak, and Japan's GDP reached 5.45 trillion US dollars.

After that, Japan's GDP began to decline, falling by one-fifth within three years. Even in 2020, Japan's GDP was only 5.05 trillion US dollars, which was far lower than in 1995.

The same is true for per capita GDP. In Japan in 1995, per capita GDP was US$43,000. In 2020, it was US$40,000. Not only did it not increase, it actually dropped by one-tenth.

For those who study economics, it is easy to predict an upward economy. They just need to slowly add up the model according to the economic growth rate. This is not considered a skill. Any college student studying economics can do it.

But being able to predict an economy's transition from prosperity to decline is much more eye-catching, because this is not a judgment made by simply calculating a data model.

Li Weidong felt that it was not easy to have the opportunity to show his face in front of the leader. It was estimated that this was the only chance in his life, so he might as well show his face more thoroughly to leave a deeper impression on the leader.

So in his report, Li Weidong not only stated the problems existing in Japan's economy, but also made detailed predictions about what will happen to Japan's economy in the next few years, what measures the Japanese government will introduce, and predicted Japan's economic growth.

, will reach its peak in 1995, and then decline.

In economics, there are actually many predictions like this, but almost all of them are just guessing, and none of them are accurate. It is not so much a prediction as it is to attract people's attention.

But as long as one can predict accurately, he will probably be worshiped as a master of economics.

…

At this time in his last life, Li Weidong had already arrived in Japan and was working hard to learn Japanese in order to get job opportunities.

In order to master Japanese as quickly as possible, Li Weidong would watch the news on TV whenever he had time and practice listening and speaking. Therefore, Li Weidong was very familiar with Japan's current political and economic conditions during this period.

It took Li Weidong three days to finally finish writing the report and then handed it over to Xiao Yuanzheng.

"Let me appreciate Director Li's masterpiece first!" Xiao Yuanzheng took the report and read it carefully.

"In order to cope with the possible economic recession, the Japanese government will reform its currency, adopt a vigorous expansionary monetary policy, and adjust interest rates. It is expected to lower interest rates starting from the second half of 1991, and the interest rate cuts will be carried out 10 to 12 times in a row.

, interest rates will reach zero within four years!”

Xiao Yuanzheng's eyes widened, and he continued: "Director Li, how dare you predict this? The Japanese government has just raised interest rates five times. I remember that the interest rate in Japan is about 6% now, right? How can it be lowered?

To zero interest rates!”

"Yes, this is my judgment. I think Japan will eventually fall into a liquidity trap!" Li Weidong said.

Liquidity trap is a concept in economics, proposed by the economist Keynes. It refers to when the interest rate level in a certain period is reduced to no longer low, and the elasticity of demand may become infinite. At this time, no matter how much money is added,

will be stored by people.

Once it enters an epidemic trap, monetary policy will be unable to change the interest rate market. Looking around the world, only Japan has entered a liquidity trap.

Xiao Yuanzheng shook his head and said: "Japan's stock market and real estate are now falling. Many economists predict that Japan will cut interest rates, but it is estimated that only a 1% to 2% reduction will be enough to bring down the stock market and real estate."

The market has recovered. Moreover, Japan’s current economy has always maintained growth, so how could it fall into a flow trap?”

Li Weidong smiled slightly: "We'll just wait and see."

Xiao Yuanzheng continued to look down, and frowned again: "It is expected that starting from 1992, the Bank of Japan will increase the issuance of bonds, and it is estimated that it will issue 45 trillion yen within three years! 45 trillion, I read that right! According to the current daily yen

The exchange rate of Yuan to U.S. dollar is equivalent to... Do you have a calculator here?"

"Don't forget it, it's equivalent to 350 billion US dollars!" Li Weidong replied.

"Yes, 350 billion U.S. dollars, how is this possible! Japan's GDP last year was just over 3 trillion U.S. dollars! How could it be possible to find so many national debts!" ​​Xiao Yuanzheng said, shaking his head.

"Director Xiao, you see clearly, the 45 trillion yen I mentioned is the additional issuance of national debt on the original basis. The original normal issuance of national debt is not included in this." Li Weidong replied with a smile.

"Your prediction is even less reliable than those economists in Beijing!" Xiao Yuanzheng curled his lips and continued to read the report.

"The Japanese government will implement tax reform and increase land price tax. Isn't that right! Real estate in Japan has been falling now. If there is a land price tax, then the real estate market will never recover! How could the Japanese government do such a stupid thing?" Xiao Yuanzheng said.

said.

Li Weidong smiled slightly and said nothing. Japan is indeed about to levy a land value tax. This land value tax was levied until 1998, but after that the land value tax was only suspended rather than abolished.

"The Japanese government will increase financial investment in the fields of communications and science and technology; impose import restrictions on lending, reduce foreign trade excesses, and expand the scope of import tax; adjust commodity prices, reduce energy and other public utility charging standards; establish new low-interest loan radicals and

Special insurance system; reduce corporate tax burden and promote foreign investment. I don’t know how many of the items you listed can be realized!" Xiao Yuanzheng said with a smile.

The items listed by Li Weidong are all measures introduced by the Japanese government in the 1990s to deal with the economic bubble. All of them will naturally be implemented.

"Japan's GDP will reach its peak in 1995, and will enter negative growth from 1996! Director Li, do you really dare to say this? Japan's economy has been growing for forty or fifty years, even if it cannot maintain rapid growth

, it won’t be negative growth!” Xiao Yuanzheng kept shaking his head with an incredulous expression.

Li Weidong laughed and thought to himself, I haven't predicted that China's economy will surpass Japan's in 2010! Otherwise, I will scare you silly!

Xiao Yuanzheng finally turned to the last few pages of the report.

"The decline of Japan's stock market and real estate market will have an impact on Japanese politics. The Liberal Democratic Party will lose the election? How is this possible!"

Xiao Yuanzheng raised his head: "Director Li, this is a big joke! Since World War II, Japan has been governed by the Liberal Democratic Party. How can the Liberal Democratic Party lose!"

"Nothing is so absolute in the world. It is normal for governments in Western countries to be driven out of office by voters if they do not manage the economy well, just like the old..."

Li Weidong's fierce words, he originally wanted to say that Bush Sr. won the war in Iraq, but because he failed to do a good job in the economy, he was ultimately unable to be re-elected.

But as he spoke, Li Weidong suddenly remembered that it was 1991 and Bush Sr. had not yet stepped down!

Li Weidong had to change his mind and said: "Just like President Hoover in the United States in the 1920s, he lost to Roosevelt because he failed to do a good job in the economy!"

"Having said that, your prediction is still too outrageous!" Xiao Yuanzheng continued: "This report of yours is really shocking. If I submit this report, I don't know how many people will get it."

, take this as a joke!”

"You came to me for a report, isn't it because my predictions about Japan's economic prospects are different from others! If my predictions are consistent with other economists, then the leaders should go directly to the reports of those economists!

"Li Weidong said with a smile.

Xiao Yuanzheng put on a show of dismissing the shopkeeper: "Come on! Anyway, I just want a report to communicate with my old man. Just laugh at the joke! You will be the one who gets laughed at then!"

This chapter has more than 4,000 words. Thank you for your subscription. The next few chapters are still being revised. It is a coherent plot and will be published tomorrow. Please give me a guaranteed monthly ticket! Thank you for passing.

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