Reborn Industrial Tycoon

Chapter 378 Academician Li is also called Li Weidong (please subscribe)

On the day of the lecture, Li Weidong arrived at the lecture early and was then taken to a lounge.

There were six people giving lectures today, and Li Weidong was ranked fourth. It was a time period when he often went to the toilet when he was tired of listening.

The first teacher talks about international politics, the second teacher talks about stocks and futures markets, and the third teacher talks about finance and trade economics.

Li Weidong talked about Japanese economy, the fifth teacher talked about sociology and population, and the sixth teacher talked about the latest technology in the world.

A young staff member came forward with a document. He thought for a moment about how to address Li Weidong, and then said: "Teacher Li, your handouts are ready. Please take a look at it first. If there are no questions,

, it will be sent to the leaders of the ministries and commissions attending the lecture soon."

Li Weidong took the handout, read it once, and then nodded: "No problem."

The young staff member continued: "Also, I heard that you didn't prepare any slides, so we won't turn on the slide projector when you speak later."

"It's better not to turn on the slide projector, at least the room will be brighter." Li Weidong said.

In 1993, lectures did not have as many computer-aided equipment as now, let alone PPT courseware.

At that time, the normal operation of teaching was a blackboard with handouts. If it was more advanced, it would be equipped with a slide projector. The teacher lectured on it while the assistant manually changed the pictures on the slide projector below.

The principle of a slide projector is very simple, with a light box and a convex lens. Nowadays, the young people born in 2000 and 2000 have probably never seen that kind of old-fashioned slide projector. However, in the 1990s, the slide projector was still a very commonly used teaching aid.

In those teacher lecture competitions held by the education department at that time, classrooms with curtains were often chosen to facilitate the use of slide projectors.

Li Weidong waited in the lounge for a while, and an old man was invited in. Behind the old man was a young man, who should be the old man's student, helping to change the slides during the lecture.

"Academician Situ, please come this way!" The young staff member brought a handout as usual and asked the old man to check it.

The old man had brought slides, so the staff took the slides to test the clarity of the slides and whether they could be played normally.

At this time, Li Weidong already knew the identity of this old man. His name was Situ Jian, an academician of the Academy of Social Sciences. His current official work unit is the Institute of Finance, Trade and Economics of the Academy of Social Sciences, a top think tank in domestic finance, trade and economics, and has participated in many projects.

Formulation of economic policies.

The third lecturer on finance, trade and economics today is Academician Situ.

Situ Jian was also idle. He looked at Li Weidong and asked, "Young man, where is your mentor?"

Situ Jian regarded Li Weidong as coming with his mentor.

Li Weidong immediately stood up and replied respectfully: "Academician Situ, I have no mentor."

"I don't have a tutor? Is it possible that you are the one giving the lecture today?" Situ Jian asked with a smile.

"I'm the one giving the lecture." Li Weidong nodded seriously.

"Tell me, what can you say?" Situ Jian thought Li Weidong was joking with him again.

"I'm talking about Japan's economy." Li Weidong replied.

Situ Jian was slightly taken aback and said with a face full of ridicule: "I really don't know the person who is talking about Japan's economy today. Looking at his resume, he is both the chairman and the director of the factory. He should be a businessman.

Could it be you?"

"Yes, my name is Li Weidong, and I am in business." Li Weidong nodded shyly.

Situ Jian looked Li Weidong up and down, still refusing to believe what Li Weidong said.

Li Weidong said: "Academician Situ, if I wanted to lie to you, I wouldn't choose a place like this! And not just anyone can come in to this room. If I don't give lectures, they might ask me to stay here.

What are you doing?"

"That's right! Liars will not be brought here." Situ Jian nodded, and then asked with a surprised look on his face: "How old are you this year?"

"Twenty-five years old!" Li Weidong replied.

"So young!" A shocked expression appeared on Situ Jian's face. It took more than ten seconds to regain his composure, and then he sighed: "When I saw your resume, I thought you must be at least fifty or sixty years old.

, I didn’t expect that I was only twenty-five years old.”

For general large-scale state-owned enterprises, it is normal for someone in their fifties to become a top leader, and to be a top leader in their forties is considered young and promising. So when Situ Jian saw the titles of "factory director" and "chairman"

, I instinctively feel that Li Weidong must be in his fifties.

But I didn't expect that Li Weidong was so young, only twenty-five years old.

At twenty-five years old, he is younger than all the students under Situ Jian!

Fortunately, a top scholar like Situ Jian has seen many geniuses in his daily life. For example, Tsinghua's prodigy class, where students study for undergraduates at the age of twelve or thirteen and graduate with doctorate degrees at the age of seventeen or eighteen, Situ Jian also saw it with his own eyes

Saw it.

We usually see a lot of geniuses, so after learning Li Weidong's age, although Situ Jian was surprised, he didn't seem too embarrassed and he immediately calmed down.

At this moment, a voice sounded from the door: "Situ, what are you talking about with a young man!"

Situ Jian looked back and said: "Old Huang, this is not a junior. This young man is called Li Weidong. Like us, he is here to give lectures!"

Hearing the name "Lao Huang", Li Weidong immediately realized that the person coming was Professor Huang Liwei from the Central University of Finance and Economics, the professor who explained stocks and futures. It is said that the establishment of the two major domestic stock exchanges and the formulation of trading rules,

Professor Huang has participated in all of them and can be said to be the top securities expert in the country.

"Li Weidong? You are that Li Weidong!" Professor Huang Wei looked Li Weidong up and down, and then said: "I heard Professor Zhao from our school mention it before, saying that there was a young man who accurately predicted Japan's economic policy.

, even the rotation of Japan’s political parties was predicted by him, is it you? I thought he was a young man of about forty years old, but I didn’t expect him to be so young! What a terrifying young man!”

The "Professor Zhao" in Huang Liwei's mouth is the Professor Zhao Yue whom Li Weidong met at the symposium before. He is also from the Central University of Finance and Economics.

Li Weidong nodded and replied humbly: "Professor Huang is right. In front of these two teachers, I am just a junior."

Situ Jian asked: "Old Huang, what did you mean by predicting Japan's economic policy and political party rotation?"

"The thing is like this..." Huang Liwei gave a general introduction to what happened, and finally added: "Our young man also predicted that Japan will fall into a liquidity trap!"

"Liquidity trap? How can this be..." Situ Jian suddenly stopped talking, and then started to think seriously.

Huang Liwei said: "When I first heard it, I thought it was impossible, but looking at Japan's current interest rate cut trend, I really can't say for sure! I study securities. In the past month, the Nikkei Index has gone from

It fell to more than 17,000 points from 19,000 points. The Bank of Japan’s interest rate cut did not stimulate the stock market, which is not good news for the Japanese economy.”

Situ Jian said, "Japan's trade data is relatively normal. After a decline in 1991, it began to rebound last year. Judging from the first two quarters of this year, it has returned to the level of 1989. From this aspect,

The likelihood of falling into a liquidity trap is unlikely.”

Li Weidong said, "Academician Situ, don't forget that Japan's current trade structure has changed. In the 1980s, Japan's trade was dominated by Japanese manufacturing. Japan's trade figures are truly Japanese products.

Now, direct overseas investment in industrial transfer has gradually become part of Japan’s domestic industrial supply chain, and the figures for this part have also been added to Japan’s trade data. Japan’s trade figures now are much larger than they were in the 1980s.”

Situ Jian said, "In the modern industrial system, industrial transfer is a normal thing. And we have experienced similar things in the past. For example, after World War II, some industries were transferred from the United States to Japan and Europe, and Japanese industries were transferred to Asia.

In the Four Tiger countries, these industries are now beginning to transfer to China, as well as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries.

In the process of this industry, many emerging economies were born, such as the economic recovery of Western Europe in the 1950s, Japan in the 1960s, and the Four Asian Tigers in the 1970s. Countries whose industries have been transferred away, such as the United States and Japan

Wait, their economy didn't fall into recession."

"That's because the previous industrial transfers were all to the right places! Whether it's Japan or South Korea, they all have an environment for industrial development."

Li Weidong continued: "Nowadays, Japanese industries are rapidly moving to Southeast Asia. This is not a suitable place for investment. These countries have no industrial genes."

"Are you saying that the political situation in Southeast Asian countries is unstable?" Situ Jian asked.

"This is just one aspect, such as infrastructure, population quality, market potential, etc., which are all unstable factors. But the most critical thing is finance, which will be a huge risk." Li Weidong replied.

"The finance in Southeast Asia is relatively weak, but in terms of huge risks, I really don't see it." Situ Jian said.

Li Weidong answered: "Emerging economies in Asia such as Japan and South Korea are all export-oriented economies. They are highly dependent on the world market. Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and Malaysia are also becoming export-oriented.

The path to a new economy.

Once all of East Asia and Southeast Asia become export-oriented economies, it will really affect the whole country! As long as there is a breach in one of the countries, there will be a chain effect, making the entire East and Southeast Asia regions export-oriented.

The whole economy collapsed!”

"What breach are you talking about?" Situ Jian asked.

Li Weidong continued: "As for the real economy, it is more difficult to crack down, but the financial system is different. Developed countries like Japan are unlikely to be hit by financial crackdowns, but what about countries in Southeast Asia such as Thailand and Indonesia? Can they?

Can it withstand a financial hit?

In the financial market, through leverage, one dollar can move a hundred dollars. If a few international speculators gather hundreds of millions of funds, the leverage can reach tens of billions of dollars. With the wealth of Southeast Asian countries, they can stop it.

What?

Once there is a financial breach in Southeast Asian countries, it will attract people from all over the world to pick up bargains. With the ability of Wall Street, it shouldn't be a problem to spend tens of billions of dollars, right? Even Japan will probably be able to do so by then.

Protect yourself!

When the financial system suffers a blow, it will inevitably drag down the real economy. Japan has huge investments in Southeast Asian countries, so the losses suffered by Japan may be even greater than those in Southeast Asian countries. By then, the liquidity trap will really come!

"

Professor Huang Liwei immediately said: "If what you say comes true, it will be an economic crisis sweeping across Asia! Then what do you think is the probability of such a thing happening?"

"One hundred percent! Because this is a structural problem. If the economic structure of Southeast Asian countries remains unchanged, the Asian financial crisis will happen sooner or later!" Li Weidong sighed and continued: "In terms of time, I think within five years, what I said will definitely happen.

of the Asian financial crisis.”

"Within five years? Asian financial crisis? How dare you say that!" Situ Jian shook his head, obviously not believing what Li Weidong said.

Li Weidong did not defend himself. He smiled slightly and said, "Of course, these are all immature speculations of a younger generation like me. If the two teachers feel that something is wrong, they have the right to treat it as Tu Yile!"

"That's alright, just have fun with it!" Situ Jian said with a smile.

Situ Jian has never played games, so he obviously doesn’t know what “Tu Yile” is!

…

Japan's share of global trade peaked in 1986, when the foreign trade shares of the United States and Japan were almost equal. In 1994, Japan's trade reached its second peak. Japan's share of global trade that year was only smaller than that of 1986.

A little younger.

Since 1994, Japan's global trade volume has continued to decline. By 2020, Japan's foreign trade proportion will be similar to that of the 1960s.

The reason is, of course, the structural problems of the Japanese economy, and the Asian financial crisis has also become a catalyst to accelerate this situation.

In the late 1980s, with the appreciation of the yen, Japan began to increase its foreign investment, with hundreds of billions of dollars being spent, creating the so-called Four Asian Tigers.

The Four Asian Tigers have also become part of Japan's supply chain because they have accepted Japan's transferred industrial chain, and in this process, Japan's trade figures have also been generated.

However, Southeast Asia has many problems, such as backward infrastructure, unstable political situation, low worker efficiency, etc. Simply put, the real economic industries of the Four Asian Tigers are unable to absorb Japan's large capital investment.

For example, Japan invested a lot of money to build a factory in the Philippines. After the factory was built, it found that it could not recruit qualified workers. Filipinos would rather bask in the sun than work in the factory. After finally recruiting workers, they found that the power supply was insufficient.

; After solving the power problem, we found that the products produced could not be transported because of poor transportation facilities;

After the traffic problem was solved, the Philippines' political dignitaries were re-elected, and the newly appointed officials changed the policy; after the newly appointed officials were dealt with, the drug lords and anti-government armed forces came to cause trouble again, and kidnapped two Japanese company executives at random, which was enough.

Japanese investors have a headache.

In addition, Southeast Asian countries have never established a complete industrial system. They cannot consume too many industrial products themselves, so they can only serve as a link in the industrial chain of Japanese companies.

When the real economies of the Four Asian Tigers cannot absorb Japan's huge investment, then funds will inevitably flow into those virtual asset industries, such as the financial industry, thereby pushing up the local currency bubble.

Southeast Asian countries were obviously aware of the bubble in their currencies, but they resorted to control measures, but instead of choosing capital controls and tightening monetary policies, they adopted loose monetary policies. This was obviously a death-seeking behavior in the eyes of later generations.

International financial speculators like Soros have long smelled the smell of this bubble, but they have never had the opportunity to take action. It was not until Thailand announced that it would abandon its fixed exchange rate and adopt a floating exchange rate that the financial speculators finally realized that their opportunity had come.

Got it!

There is a concept of "triple paradox" in economics, which refers to the fact that under the conditions of an open economy, the independence of the country's monetary policy, the stability of the exchange rate, and the complete liquidity of capital cannot be achieved at the same time. At most, they can only be satisfied simultaneously.

two goals while giving up the other.

Theoretically, it is also possible for these three elements to coexist, that is, a country has an infinite amount of foreign exchange. When the foreign exchange market fluctuates, it can use an infinite amount of foreign exchange to stabilize its own currency.

Therefore, the Three Yuan Paradox does not apply to the United States. After all, the Federal Reserve can print money unlimitedly.

Thailand originally had exchange rate stability and capital liquidity, but it did not have the independence of monetary policy.

The vast majority of countries in the world do not have independent monetary policies, and there are no more than ten countries in the world that truly have independent monetary policies.

To know whether a country has monetary policy independence, it is easy to see if the United States has classified the country as a currency manipulator.

As long as the country is listed as a currency manipulator by the United States, it means that the domestic currency can be used as a tool to adjust the economy without having to look at the face of the US dollar, then this country can be regarded as having the independence of monetary policy.

When Thailand faced its own currency bubble, it hoped to control it through monetary policy, so Thailand decided to abandon its fixed exchange rate in exchange for the independence of monetary policy.

However, Thailand did not have enough foreign exchange to cope with international speculators. As a result, the Thai baht suffered a blow, dominoes fell, and the Asian financial crisis broke out. The Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, and Malaysian ringgit became the targets of international speculators one after another.

Later, as more and more international speculators joined, the Hong Kong dollar, Korean won and Japanese yen also came under attack one after another.

The Hong Kong dollar relied on the foreign exchange supported by the state, and a large amount of foreign exchange was poured into it, and finally repelled the international bankruptcies; South Korea sold its assets to Wall Street, and even its state-owned banks were sold, and finally exchanged for foreign exchange for emergency relief, but in the end it was

Their vitality was severely damaged; Japan, on the other hand, had a strong family background and large foreign exchange reserves, so it was able to carry it through.

However, Japan's investment in Southeast Asia has suffered huge losses. Those investments that originally brought profits have become worthless, and some have even become negative assets.

Therefore, although the Asian financial crisis was caused by the economic structure of Southeast Asian countries, it was Japan that caused this economic structure.

Japan transferred its economic bubble to other Asian countries through investment, and then when the bubble burst, everyone was finished together.

However, international financial speculators are not only found on Wall Street, but also in Tokyo. During the Asian financial crisis, the shadow of the Japanese yen can always be seen. Japanese financial speculators probably made a lot of money as a result.

…

Several other scholars also arrived one after another, and Li Weidong finally got to know some of the top experts.

These scholars can all meet the leaders through appointments and can speak well in front of the leaders. Being able to know such people is an extraordinary resource in itself.

At the same time, leaders of ministries and commissions participating in the study also arrived at the venue one after another.

He Anan's uncle walked into the venue and greeted everyone he met.

"Old Wu, you came very early!"

"Lao Zhu, I've sent someone to send the plan I mentioned last time to you. Please take a look at it when you have time. I'm still waiting for your reply!"

"Wang Department, I went to investigate that policy last week. If we really want to implement it, we need the cooperation of the two units. We can't slap it with just one slap!"

"The documents I mentioned on the phone yesterday have been sent to my secretary. Okay, I'll take a look at them right away when I get back!"

Uncle He was also very busy. He walked in and took care of several things.

Finally, Uncle He found his seat and sat down. The staff immediately came forward and poured water into the tea cup in front of Uncle He.

Uncle He opened the folder on the table, which contained the lecture notes for today's lecture.

"International Geopolitics after the Collapse of the Soviet Union, the speaker, Wang Changning, is Professor Wang from the China Foreign Affairs University!"

"The development of modern stock and futures markets, the speaker is Huang Liwei. Let me think about it, he seems to be a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics."

"Econometric analysis of regional fiscal differences and foreign investment. The speaker, Situ Jian, is Academician Situ of the Academy of Social Sciences!"

"Interpretation of Japan's economic policy after the 1990s and its impact on Asia. The speaker is Li Weidong... Who is this? Is the one who talks about Japan's economic policy from the Institute of Japan, Academy of Social Sciences? Since when have there been so many leaders around?

Such a wise man?"

"By the way, this name sounds so familiar. Yes, I remembered that the person An An is looking for is also named Li Weidong!

There are quite a few people with the surname Li, but with a name like Wei Dong, they have the same name as another academician!

"It's true that the same name has a different destiny! We should really let that boy Li Weidong come over and see how Academician Li, also named Li Weidong, can speak in front of the leaders! Look at you, self-employed, eh!"

Thinking of this, Uncle He curled his lips unconsciously, and his dissatisfaction with Li Weidong rose again in his heart.

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