Reborn Industrial Tycoon

Chapter 522: Starting the Lost Thirty Years

Chapter 522 The beginning of the lost thirty years

What Li Weidong said was exactly what he planned to report.

Now that he told Situ Jian his thoughts, he also talked to Situ Jian first. If he could convince Situ Jian, he would have more help when he made the report later.

Situ Jian is outstanding among academicians. If he can get his approval, Li Weidong will also get extra points when reporting.

After Li Weidong made the key judgment on the stock market, Situ Jian thought carefully and his face suddenly turned into a serious expression.

The Asian financial crisis was triggered by Thailand's monetary policy. The attack points of international financial giants are also on the monetary systems of Southeast Asian countries. The focus of economists around the world is also on the currencies of various countries.

Economists are discussing the reasons for the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis and the shortcomings in the financial systems of Southeast Asian countries. Everyone's eyes are fixed on the currency.

Not only was Situ Jian unable to think of the problems in the stock market, so many of the world's top economists, including those who won the Nobel Prize in Economics, also did not expect that Soros would turn his guns and attack the stock market.

Of course, it is possible that some people have noticed it, but they have not revealed it. After all, 80% of the Nobel Prize winners in economics are Americans, and most of the world's famous economists are also Americans.

Many of these economists have part-time jobs on Wall Street, casually acting as consultants and receiving a sum of money every year, so they are too embarrassed to mention the intentions of the father of the funder.

Judging from the perspective of hindsight, Soros's tactics were very common financial warfare methods. However, in 1997, these tactics left economists around the world at a loss.

In fact, for economists, Soros' tricks are not difficult to understand. As long as someone can pierce the window paper, people with a little knowledge of economics will suddenly understand.

But now, Li Weidong has become the one who broke the window paper. With a little reminder, Situ Jian understood what Li Weidong meant.

After thinking about it for a while, Situ Jian felt that the possibility mentioned by Li Weidong was very high, so he said: "Xiao Li, your prediction is very constructive and worthy of in-depth discussion and investigation.

of.

When you report to the leader later, you can confidently state your thoughts boldly, and I will help you check and fill in the gaps."

After hearing what Situ Jian said, Li Weidong let out a sigh of relief. With Situ Jian helping him, the reporting work would be much easier.

After waiting for a long time, Li Weidong was finally met by the leader.

Li Weidong made a report to his leadership on his judgment that the stock market was the key, and Situ Jian also added a few words from time to time.

With Situ Jian's help, the report effect was surprisingly good.

The leader also had questions to ask, but he asked: "Li Weidong, the first time I saw your name was on a report on Japan's future economic policy. That report was written by you.

Economic policy predictions eventually came true.

It seems that you know the Japanese economy very well, and you have said before that the root cause of the Asian financial crisis lies in Japan, so I would like to hear your judgment on the follow-up of the Japanese economy."

At that time, Japan was a US$5 trillion economy, and other Asian countries combined were not as powerful as Japan. It is no exaggeration to say that if Japan sneezes, the whole of Asia will catch a severe cold.

At that time, China, as the second largest economy in Asia, had a GDP of only more than 800 billion US dollars, which was less than one-fifth of Japan's. In addition, the investment and trade exchanges between China and Japan were huge, and domestic decision-makers had no confidence in Japan.

Naturally, we pay special attention to the economic situation.

Li Weidong also did some homework in this area before coming. He organized the language and began to report.

"I think the storm of the Southeast Asian financial crisis will soon hit Japan's butt, and will have a very serious impact on the Japanese economy. The Japanese economy is likely to fall into a long-term recession as a result.

The reason why I made this judgment is mainly based on the following reasons. First, Japan regards Southeast Asia as its most important market, especially the dumping ground for automobiles, electronic products, and industrial raw materials.

These are the core products of Japan's exports. Once the Southeast Asian economy is affected, it will affect the end of the Japanese market and hit Japan's export industry hard.

Second, Southeast Asia is also an important production base for Japan. In recent years, Japan has relocated many industrial chains to Southeast Asia. Panasonic, Sony, Toyota and other companies have set up factories in Southeast Asia, and consortiums such as Mitsui and Sumitomo have also set up factories in Southeast Asia.

Relying on Southeast Asia, we conduct trade activities.

Once the economies of Southeast Asian countries collapse, Japanese companies' business in Southeast Asia will be severely hit. This will not only cause Japan's investment in Southeast Asia to suffer losses, but will also affect Japan's industrial chain transferred to Southeast Asia.

Third, is the ASEAN Free Trade Area that Japan has been promoting. Once ASEAN's economy is weakened, Japan's voice in Southeast Asia will also be weakened, and Japan's overall economic and political status will also be weakened.

The first three points are all affected by external factors. For an economy as large as Japan, they will only hurt the skin and will not affect the bones. The fourth point I want to talk about is the one that hurts the bones of Japan.

matter."

Li Weidong paused deliberately to let the leader's attention focus on him, and then said: "Fourth, it is Japan's bad debt problem.

Japan's real estate bubble and excessive credit in recent years have caused a large number of bad debts. This problem will explode with the financial crisis in Southeast Asia. This will give Japan's economy a fatal blow!"

The leader nodded silently, then looked at Situ Jian next to him, obviously asking for Situ Jian's opinion.

Situ Jian understood the leader's intention and immediately asked: "Xiao Li, is there any evidence to support this?"

Li Weidong replied: "The data provided by various financial institutions in Japan is my evidence support."

"That's not right!" Situ Jian frowned and asked; "I have been paying attention to the data of several major banks and financial institutions in Japan. Their debt situations are relatively healthy. Although it can be seen that

There are risks, but they are all within control.”

"It's because their data is so healthy that they can't even see uncontrollable financial risks, so I feel the seriousness of the problem!" Li Weidong said.

Situ Jian was stunned for a moment, then asked with a surprised look on his face: "You mean, Japanese financial institutions have falsified data?"

Li Weidong nodded: "The size of Japan's real estate bubble back then was really too big. The debt accumulated from bursting the real estate bubble could not have such healthy data."

Situ Jian shook his head: "I don't entirely agree with your judgment. Although I admit that there are probably some financial institutions that will falsify data, but there are so many financial institutions in Japan, and I think they all falsify data.

It’s impossible.”

"Academician Situ, you overestimate the integrity of Japanese companies!" Li Weidong smiled slightly and continued; "If data falsification becomes an unspoken rule, then everyone will do it.

I firmly believe that Japanese financial institutions have engaged in collective fraud in data, and the Japanese financial community and even the Ministry of Finance, which is in charge of finance, have even acquiesced in this behavior.

This has caused great risks to Japan's financial system. Once a certain financial institution is hit by a thunderstorm, it will trigger a chain reaction that is irreversible.

According to my observation, Yamaichi Securities, one of Japan's four major securities firms, may be that bomb. In May, Ogawa Securities, a subsidiary of Yamaichi Securities, had ceased operations. This is not a good thing.

Signal.

Perhaps the fortress of Yamaichi Securities is right in front of us. So I suggest that if our country invests in the Japanese securities industry, it should withdraw immediately to avoid risks!"

During the Asian financial crisis in 1997, two countries adopted a laissez-faire attitude towards the depreciation of their own currencies. After facing attacks from the financial giants of the international group, they simply laid back and allowed their currencies to depreciate.

One is the Philippines. The Philippine government believed that currency depreciation would be beneficial to Philippine exports, so it allowed the Philippine peso to depreciate.

Of course, another reason is that the Philippines does not have that much foreign exchange reserves to confront the international financial giants, so it simply does not resist and lets it go.

What's more, the industry in the Philippines is relatively backward. GDP is mainly driven by the service industry, and the largest part of it relies on the export of foreign workers. The depreciation of the Philippine peso has made the money sent back by foreign workers appear to be more.

The international financial giants are not fools. The Philippines, a poor place, doesn't have much oil and water in the first place. After making a little bit of deboned meat in the Philippines, which is better than nothing, they move to other countries and regions.

It is also for this reason that economists rarely talk about the Philippines during the Asian financial crisis. When everyone is discussing how to eat fattened beef, who will care about the little bit of deboned meat?

The smaller the base, the easier it is to recover. During the Asian financial crisis, the Philippines' losses were not large compared to other countries. After the financial crisis, it only took the Philippines one year to restore its economic level to the level before the Asian financial crisis.

Another country that has allowed its currency to depreciate is Japan.

Japan has the same calculation as the Philippines, believing that the depreciation of the yen will be beneficial to exports.

At that time, Japan was the world's largest exporter. Nearly 40% of Japan's GDP was driven by exports. If the yen depreciated significantly, it would inevitably stimulate Japan's exports and boost Japan's economy.

Moreover, the yen has been appreciating in the past few years, so Japan believes that there is a lot of room for the yen to depreciate.

But Japan made a miscalculation, and that was the Asian financial crisis, which caused Japan's domestic debt system to collapse.

After Japan burst its real estate bubble, a large number of bad debts appeared. However, Japan's economy was still advancing rapidly until 1995, as if it was not hindered by real estate.

But the problem of bad debts in real estate has actually been covered up, but not solved.

After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, the Japanese financial industry was unable to continue to obtain high profits from Southeast Asia. The mines laid by the real estate bubble that year finally exploded at this time.

As early as May 1997, the suspension of Japan's Ogawa Securities was a warning, and that was exactly when international financial giants launched their last exploratory attack on Thailand.

Ogawa Securities is affiliated to Yamaichi Securities, and Yamaichi Securities is one of the four major securities firms in Japan. The bankruptcy of Ogawa Securities also implies that Yamaichi Securities has a hidden agenda.

By October, Kyoto's Kyoei Bank and Japanese retailer Yaohan collapsed.

The main business of Kyoto Kyoei Bank is investing in Southeast Asia, while Yaohan has been frantically expanding its business in Southeast Asia since 1990, while also carrying out trade activities in Southeast Asian countries.

The businesses of these two companies are closely related to Southeast Asia. The financial crisis in Southeast Asia directly led to the bankruptcy of these two companies.

On November 3, Sanyo Securities, Japan’s seventh largest securities firm, officially declared bankruptcy.

Before Sanyo Securities collapsed, it had been struggling for a long time. At that time, Japan's Ministry of Finance, which was responsible for finance, lobbied many financial institutions in the hope of saving Sanyo Securities.

However, at that juncture, no one had any surplus money, and no one was willing to be taken advantage of to increase capital, so Sanyo Securities set a precedent for the collapse of a Japanese securities company after the war.

This also shows from the side that the Japanese Ministry of Finance is aware of the true situation of various financial institutions, but the Ministry of Finance does not find a way to solve the problem, but "covers the quilt" with the major financial institutions.

On November 17, Hokkaido Takushoku Bank, one of the top ten banks in Japan, collapsed.

Hokkaido Takushoku Bank has not invested in Southeast Asia. Their main business is loans to Japan’s domestic real estate industry, which also means that Japan’s real estate bubble has officially exploded.

On November 24, Yamaichi Securities, one of Japan's four major securities firms, announced its bankruptcy. This securities company was founded in 1897 and experienced the baptism of World War II. It remained unchanged, but it collapsed on the occasion of its 100th anniversary.

The collapse of Sany Securities originated from a bribery scandal. At that time, a Japanese gangster discovered that Sany Securities had been conducting illegal transactions for the past six years.

Since 1991, Shanyi Securities has been providing guaranteed dividend services to some large customers, using a method similar to internal competition in the domestic securities market.

Of course, this kind of behavior is not allowed, but many financial institutions at that time often did this kind of thing secretly in order to seize the resources of large customers.

However, after the gang discovered this matter, they blackmailed Shanyi Securities, and Shanyi Securities also chose to pay the money.

Unfortunately, the gangsters were not tight-lipped enough, and the extortion was still exposed.

So according to Japanese tradition, the leader of Yamaichi Securities bowed and apologized, then resigned and ran away.

After the new leader took office, he began to investigate the illegal transactions, only to find out that Yamaichi Securities had tampered with its accounts and hid 260 billion yen of debts, which were left over from the real estate bubble that year.

Bad debts and bad debts.

The new leader of Yamaichi Securities was unwilling to take the blame, so he reported the false accounts to the Ministry of Finance in Japan, and the huge debt of 260 billion yen directly crushed Yamaichi Securities.

However, for the Japanese, the scandal of Yamaichi Securities' false accounting was just the beginning. Investors realized that other Japanese financial companies were not so clean, and they might also be falsely accounting.

When Japanese real estate was at its peak, one real estate in Tokyo was enough to buy the entire United States. If such a large volume suddenly burst, how could it be possible that only Yamaichi Securities was committing fraud? How could a mere Yamaichi Securities be able to swallow such a big bubble?

!

The Ministry of Finance may be aware of the bad debt problems of various financial institutions, but the Ministry of Finance's choice is to "cover the quilt" together. When Yamaichi Securities was hit by thunder, it was already too late to find a solution!

As a result, capital chose to leave, and Japan's various securities firms and major credit banks were all on the verge of life and death. The entire Japanese financial industry collapsed instantly, and then the Japanese economy fell into recession.

Japan's lost thirty years have officially begun!

Thank you all friends for your birthday wishes, and thank you parents for your subscription. After finishing this chapter, I deleted a lot of content. I originally planned to connect the next plot, but I am afraid that this chapter will be deleted again and there will be no continuity by then.

Sex, so let’s leave the next plot to the next chapter!

Tap the screen to use advanced tools Tip: You can use left and right keyboard keys to browse between chapters.

You'll Also Like