Reborn Industrial Tycoon

While the discussion was still going on, a staff member quietly walked up to the host and handed over a note.

After the host read the note, he said: "Chairman Li mentioned the possibility of large-scale quantitative easing in the United States. I would like to ask the experts, if this possibility occurs, what impact will it have on our country's economy?

What kind of impact?”

The host asked this question after receiving the note. Obviously, this question was not asked by the host, but by the people listening in the audience. And there were only a few people who could hand the note to the host.

A leader of a ministry.

Obviously, the policy-making department wants to know what the consequences will be after the United States implements quantitative easing.

If this "Financial Rescue Act" can really restore the U.S. economy, then for countries around the world, it will be nothing more than business as usual. Everyone will act in accordance with the previous economic order, and policy-making departments will not need to study and introduce new policies.

But if it is true, as Li Weidong said, that the United States will carry out large-scale quantitative easing, it will definitely have an impact on the world's economy, and as a decision-making department, it also needs to introduce countermeasures.

Therefore, for the leaders of the ministries and commissions participating in the forum, they would rather hear about different possibilities. If things continue as usual, there is no need to listen to the nonsense of these economists.

The topic of quantitative easing came up temporarily, and several economists were obviously not prepared in advance. However, to be an expert, after all, you have a certain level, and you can also make a few words on the spot.

Just listen to Professor Huang say: "Quantitative easing means that the currency will be released, and the increase in currency on the market will inevitably lead to currency depreciation. In other words, if the United States implements large-scale quantitative easing, the dollar will inevitably depreciate.

And this means that other currencies will appreciate against the U.S. dollar. If the RMB appreciates against the U.S. dollar, it will inevitably have an impact on our country's exports, and the specific situation depends on the extent of the U.S. dollar's depreciation."

Hearing that quantitative easing would affect exports, many people at the scene showed nervous expressions.

Professor Sun spoke up: "I would like to add to Professor Huang, if the US dollar depreciates, other countries will most likely learn from the United States and carry out quantitative easing in order to stabilize their exchange rates. At that time, there will be a situation where everyone will release money together, which is inevitable

It will cause global inflation."

Both professors gave relatively pessimistic answers, and the microphone fell into the hands of Dean Cai.

Just listen to Dean Cai say: "Let me talk about the impact of quantitative easing in the United States from a monetary perspective! When the U.S. dollar depreciates due to quantitative easing, other countries can also carry out quantitative easing by holding more

of dollars to stabilize the exchange rate.

If more people hold U.S. dollars, there will be fewer U.S. dollars on the market, and the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar will naturally rise. As the main trading currency, the U.S. dollar is also the most important foreign exchange reserve for countries around the world, so holding more U.S. dollars will

It is not a problem for countries around the world.

But this is equivalent to other countries absorbing the excess currency issued by the US quantitative easing, and it is also equivalent to the US passing on inflation to those countries that hold US dollars. If these countries want to obtain US dollars, they must use their goods

To carry out exchange, this is equivalent to the Federal Reserve turning on the money printing press and exchanging goods from other countries for Americans to use.

The U.S. dollars held by various countries cannot generate income when placed in the treasury. Instead, they will shrink due to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Therefore, purchasing U.S. debt will become the most reliable way to preserve the value of U.S. dollar assets. The United States also sells U.S. debt

way to allow dollars to flow back to the United States.

This means that the U.S. dollar traveled around the world and then returned to the United States. At the same time, the United States also received goods provided by the world. Countries around the world lent money to the United States to allow Americans to engage in various consumption activities.

.Even the goods sold to the United States are more like a credit account than a sale!"

In 2008, the concept of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world's wealth was not well known to people. The theory mentioned by Dean Cai was still very new to many people.

But it was new. After listening to this theory, everyone in the conference room couldn't help but frown. Previously, everyone thought that by selling things to Americans, they earned their dollars and earned foreign exchange through exports.

Now, listening to Dean Cai's analysis, I can't help but think that someone printed a bunch of paper and then exchanged their own goods. In the end, they even took back the printed paper. After working hard for a long time, I got a credit!

It’s so heartbreaking!

The host finally looked at Li Weidong: "Chairman Li, you were the first to bring up the possibility of quantitative easing just now, so what are your views on quantitative easing?"

Li Weidong picked up the microphone: "The views of the three experts just now are all correct, and I agree with them very much. However, I am a businessman, so I am still used to looking at and analyzing problems from the perspective of the actual industrial structure. So my views are not like those of the three experts.

Experts are so pessimistic.

In my opinion, if the United States implements quantitative easing, it may not be a bad thing for our country's enterprises. What I see is an opportunity, an opportunity for industrial upgrading!

Here we must first make it clear that when the United States implements quantitative easing, how will the excess currency flow into the market? Is it through investment? Trade? The financial system? Social welfare? Or is it directly distributed to the people?

money?

Just like the financial rescue bill proposed by the U.S. government this time, it is to purchase derivatives of subprime loans. Who holds these derivatives of subprime loans? It is obviously a financial institution. In other words, this money is directly

flowed into financial institutions.

Financial institutions have received the money, and its only purpose is to invest. But now the United States is experiencing a financial crisis, the financial industry is struggling, and the real economy is shrinking. Are there any other areas worth investing in?

In addition to the United States, developed countries such as Europe and Japan have also been affected by the financial crisis. As far as I know, some European countries have already experienced problems with their sovereign debt, which is definitely not a good place for investment.

Other regions, such as Africa, South America, and India, have always been the sphere of influence of Western countries. If Western capital were willing to invest in these places, they would have done so long ago. There is no need to wait until now.

So I think there is only one place where Western capital investment can invest, and that is China. If the United States implements quantitative easing, a large amount of funds will inevitably flow into China, and because our financial system has strict restrictions on foreign investment

, so this capital will inevitably enter our real economy.

This is of course a rare opportunity for us, and what we have to do is to make full use of this opportunity, explore overseas markets, and more importantly, upgrade the industrial chain, build a complete industrial chain, and transform our manufacturing industry from

Transform from low-end to mid-to-high-end!”

Comparing what the three economists said before about the impact on exports, inflation, and the harvest of dollar hegemony, what Li Weidong said is obviously positive and good news. The leaders of the ministries and commissions sitting in the front row couldn't help but their eyes lit up.

However, Li Weidong continued: "But don't be too happy. In addition to investment, the inflow of Western capital will also bring competition. The West has brand advantages and technological advantages, and in many industries there are still formulations

Advantages of rules.

When Western capital enters, it will bring all these brands, technologies, and rules to China. When the time comes, our local companies will inevitably be impacted, and many companies will be eliminated by then."

The host then asked: "Chairman Li, if it is true, as you said, that Western capital brings brands, technologies, and rules to invest in the Chinese market on a large scale, how should our Chinese companies respond?"

"Two words, upgrade!" Li Weidong continued: "If companies want to upgrade their own technology and make more competitive products, it is best to compete with Western companies for the right to speak in the industry.

If we can formulate rules like the West, we will be invincible. But if we want to become the rule-maker, we need to build a complete industrial chain so that we can have the ability to formulate rules."

"It is easier said than done to formulate industry rules, but very difficult to do!" Professor Huang said from the sidelines.

Li Weidong responded: "The road to the rise of a great country is inherently full of thorns. If industry could be developed so easily, then there would be industrial powers everywhere in the world!"

Dean Cai said: "Chairman Li, it's great to be a rule maker, but I don't think it's necessary to build a complete industrial chain, at least not in all fields.

The globalization process has been carried out for so many years, and the global division of labor in various industries has long been mature. If we deliberately pursue a complete industrial chain, it will break the existing mature global division of labor.

Let’s not talk about whether building a complete industrial chain can be successful. Just talking about the cost of building an industrial chain will definitely be much higher than using an existing industrial chain. Even if the industrial chain is completed, it will still face the same problem as the existing industrial chain.

Competition in the industrial chain. From a cost perspective, this is not cost-effective."

Li Weidong smiled slightly: "To be honest, I have never believed in globalization! Let alone global division of labor. The concept of globalization was proposed by Americans. The Clinton administration at that time was pushing the so-called globalization.

But I think the reason why Americans promote globalization is because globalization is beneficial to the United States. As you just said, the U.S. dollar is the global currency, and the United States can harvest the world through the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt, so Americans will hope

Globalization.

But what if one day, globalization is no longer beneficial to the United States? Will the United States continue to support globalization? Maybe by then, the United States will withdraw from various international organizations, give up dialogue with other countries, and only engage in unilateralism, and that is

Put U.S. interests first.

Just like international trade, the United States no longer abides by WTO agreements, but negotiates with more than 100 WTO members separately and reaches more than 100 different bilateral agreements. With the strength of the United States, this bilateral-only model

Clearly there are more benefits to be gained!”

"How is this possible! Free trade is the value of the United States, how could the United States give up its own values?" Dean Cai curled his lips.

"The value of the United States is only interests!" Li Weidong shrugged and continued: "Of course, what I said are just predictions now. Predictions, some are accurate and some are inaccurate. It will take time to see whether my prediction is accurate.

inspection.”

Dean Cai nodded. He felt that Li Weidong's mention of the word "prediction" at this time was tantamount to taking a step back and finding a way down. There was no need for him to add insult to injury.

However, Li Weidong went on to say: "It's just that my predictions are not inaccurate yet. So here, I also remind all entrepreneurs to have an extra back-up in the supply chain.

You can’t build the entire supply chain, but you must at least ensure that if the supply chain encounters a malicious interruption one day, substitutes can be found so that the company can survive!”

…

The outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis accelerated the relocation of U.S. industries overseas, and the biggest beneficiary of the relocation of U.S. industries is naturally China.

In the early 21st century, China could only make some hard-earned money through low-end manufacturing, but by 2010, China could already dominate parts of the international supply chain.

And when the United States completely resolved the subprime mortgage crisis in 2012, they suddenly discovered that China's position in the international supply chain was no longer something the United States could handle on its own.

So after the *** government entered its second term, it began to promote the TPP and wanted to form cliques to deal with China. During the period of understanding the king, it simply used a trade war and sanctions as a big stick to directly help China promote industrial upgrading.

The accelerated relocation of U.S. industries abroad is inseparable from the four rounds of quantitative easing.

During the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States had four quantitative easings. The first was to lend money to the U.S. government to purchase subprime financial derivatives. The second, third, and fourth times were to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds. Treasury bonds are issued by the government, which is equivalent to

The Federal Reserve prints money and lends it to the U.S. government.

All the money from QE1 went into the pockets of financial institutions. When financial institutions received the money, they would naturally reinvest it. At that time, the United States and Europe were in deep financial crisis, and there were no suitable projects for investment, so the money was just

Being able to invest in developing countries also promotes the relocation of American industries overseas.

Part of the money from QE2 to QE4 was used for wars, such as maintaining military missions in Afghanistan and Yinlaq, the war in Libya, the war in Syria, and the fight against ISIS. These all cost money.

Another part is used for the economic policies of the Japanese government, which is the so-called "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act", including reform of the financial system, reform of education and medical care, increased investment in infrastructure construction, investment in the energy field, etc.

As we all know, the final result is that except for the achievements in the energy field, the United States has developed a shale oil industry and achieved oil self-sufficiency, but almost nothing has been achieved in other aspects.

Take investment in infrastructure construction, for example. Dozens of major infrastructure projects were set up at that time, and then discussions began. However, the discussions ended with no results until the end of the *** term.

The Communist Party of China has the ambition to build 20,000 kilometers of high-speed rail for the United States. However, it took 14 years to demonstrate the California high-speed rail. In these 14 years, China has built nearly 40,000 kilometers of high-speed rail.

Moreover, this demonstration alone cost 5 billion US dollars. After all 5 billion US dollars was spent, not a single railroad track was found.

In the end, the money from QE2 to QE4 also entered the U.S. financial system, and was then used by financial institutions to invest in some profitable industries.

It is also for this reason that although the Japanese government's quantitative easing has stabilized the U.S. economy, it has not been positively evaluated because the money went full circle and eventually fell into the hands of capital without the people seeing it.

Compared with the unlimited QE carried out by the Sleeping King government, the evaluation is much higher, because there is a lot of money in the unlimited QE, which is directly distributed to the people in the form of cash. At that time, the news reported every day that the United States had distributed money again.

The National People's Congress has a few hundred dollars, and this is what it uses.

Although a large part of this money also flowed into the stock market and real estate market, pushing up the Nasdaq index and sending Tesla stock to sky-high prices, according to economists' estimates, at least one-third was converted

For the direct consumption of ordinary people.

However, after a period of time, ordinary people still have to bear the consequences of inflation caused by the money distribution. Not only the United States, but also countries that distributed money to all people during the epidemic have all experienced severe inflation more than a year later. This is also the result of the money distribution.

of sequelae.

In the face of inflation, the rich must not care. Daily necessities have doubled, but for the rich it is just drizzle. They are all driving Bentley and Rolls-Royce, and they still care about the 10 yuan a liter of gas.

Money? 98 can be refilled directly, not much beep beep!

However, for the poor, it is an unbearable burden of life. It hurts to spend ten yuan more to fill a tank of oil. The hundreds or thousands of dollars that were paid back then were all spit out by inflation, and they still had to pay a rebate.

Pen.

Closer to home, the process of four quantitative easings during the subprime mortgage crisis accelerated the transfer of industries in the United States. At that time, Europe had a sovereign debt crisis, and it certainly could not accept industrial transfers.

The economies of countries such as South Korea and Mexico are insufficient and they can undertake very few industries. Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia lack sound infrastructure. As for India, everyone knows that it is a trap.

Therefore, the only destination for American industrial transfer is China. China also used this period to establish a complete supply chain system.

By the time low-end intensive manufacturing has moved to Southeast Asia, China has already controlled the upstream supply chain, and countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh can only supplement China's supply chain.

For example, Vietnam has worked hard for half a year to achieve a trade volume of 370 billion U.S. dollars. It claimed that the trade volume increased by dozens of percent. However, when the accounts were calculated, it only had a surplus of 700 million U.S. dollars, and the calculated profit was less than 0.4%.

You can make more money than this even if you go for volume promotions on Xixi.

This is because Vietnam is engaged in low-end processing of supplied materials and does not have a complete industrial chain. The upstream is controlled by raw material suppliers and the downstream is controlled by market sellers. It has no pricing power at all.

If we follow Japan's flying geese theory, in the process of industrial specialization, the countries undertaking the industries should be dispersed. The United States, the leading goose, left part of the core industry and gave some of it to Western Europe, Mexico, Japan and other countries.

Western Europe then distributed the eliminated industries to Central Europe, followed by Eastern Europe, Mexico spread its industries to Latin America, and Japan distributed its industries to the Four Asian Tigers, and then from the Four Asian Tigers to the Four Asian Tigers, and then spread to other countries in Asia.

In the end, the developed and wealthy countries retain high value-added industries, while the poor and backward countries accept low value-added industries. All countries combined form a complete industrial chain, forming the so-called globalization.

However, this theory does not work when it comes to China. China is large enough to absorb the entire industrial chain. Therefore, when the industrial chain arrives in China, it becomes digested within China, and eventually a complete industrial chain is formed.

But this is not the most critical thing. The most critical thing is that while China has formed a complete industrial chain, it has also formed a huge domestic demand market for terminals.

Therefore, when the United States wants to remove its industrial chain from China, it will face two problems. One is that it cannot find a country to undertake such a huge industrial chain, and the other is that capital can no longer do without the Chinese market.

The first question is that the *** government launched the TPP, bringing in a large number of Pacific countries, hoping to use the entire Pacific countries to take over China's industrial chain.

As it turns out, after King Wang came to power, he withdrew from the group first. Instead, China wanted to join the TPP and make other TPP countries become vassals of China's industrial chain.

The second problem is that there is really no solution. It is simply impossible to keep capital away from the market.

For example, in order to suppress China's chip industry, the United States spent more than 50 billion U.S. dollars in subsidies and enacted the "Chip Act." One of the contents is that companies that receive my subsidies will not be allowed to invest in China within ten years.

.This makes it clear that companies are allowed to choose one side or another.

However, the first one to jump out to oppose this clause was not South Korea's Samsung, nor the other side's TSMC, but the United States' Intel.

Intel not only sells tens of billions of dollars in chips in China every year, but also invests in industries such as cloud computing, big data analysis, Internet of Things, smart devices, wearable technology, smart robotics, drones, Internet of Vehicles, virtual reality and other industries.

, Intel’s early layout in these industries is to gain more market share in the future.

In order to get billions of dollars of subsidies from the U.S. government and give up a market worth tens or hundreds of billions, do you really think that Intel is a stick?