Reborn? The Kind You Can Choose!

The futures market is divided into internal market and external market.

The internal market refers to the trading of a certain futures on the exchange, such as the soybean No. 2 that Yuan Zhou just traded. Some people are buying and some are selling. This is the internal market.

If there are more people buying goods, the futures price will rise; if there are more people selling goods and fewer people buying, the futures price will fall.

In this way, the futures' falling and rising curve will be directly formed~!

Ultimately, depending on the ratio of scanning and selling, the rise or fall of a certain futures product on that day can be determined!

However, the premise of this kind of rise and fall is based on the situation that there is no movement in the external market, which is the so-called external market, and the rise and fall basically remain unchanged.

For example, in the international futures market, the actual product market price of soybeans tends to be stable, etc.

Once the prices of these markets start to rise or fall sharply, no matter how many people buy goods in the internal market, they will still fall when they should. This is the influence of the external environment, referred to as the external market.

For example, if the output of soybeans increases sharply, the price will definitely fall. Everyone knows this.

As international soybean prices begin to fall, soybean prices in the futures market will also fall accordingly.

These are factors that cause ups and downs, that is, the so-called external market affects the internal market, which causes the price of the futures market to fluctuate up and down.

"It would be interesting if some news came out at this time!"

News is one of the most important channels for external market influence.

The most common thing is that CCTV directly reports how much soybean production has increased. The futures market will definitely surge in an instant, and prices will fall in response.

This is what Liao Jie expected.

Because as soon as this kind of news comes out, it means that Yuan Zhou... will go bankrupt in an instant!

Once soybean production increases, the price of yellow soybean No. 2 in the futures market will be good, let alone 4,355 yuan/ton, but 4,000 yuan/ton.

"The price of 4,355 yuan is already the highest price for soybeans in history!"

“There is a limit to how much further it can rise!”

"The soybeans in the United States have been tense for a year, and it's time for a good harvest, right?"

Liao Jie was thinking about it and casually browsed some industry news. Not to mention, he didn't see any sign that soybeans would plummet.

"It seems that Yuan Zhou has done some research!"

"It's just that this wave of risks is a bit high..."

Seeing that he could not access any internal information, Liao Jie could only report Yuan Zhou's transaction status to his boss, Shen Yian, the boss of Guotai Junan. He reported the price and purchase quantity of Yuan Zhou's goods.

Shen Yian only has one instruction: "Monitor at all times!"

“Once the risk threshold is breached, close the position directly!”

In Shen Yi'an's opinion, this transaction has more risks than benefits.

Because at such a high level, the probability of falling is countless times higher than the probability of rising.

This is just like the water level. It rises to tens of thousands of meters. It will become more and more difficult to rise further; and to fall, it may be done in an instant, minutes, or even several thousand meters in one go... Yuan Zhou's Soybean No. 2 futures warehouse has this concept in their eyes.

This is a high-risk position, and it is very likely that within a minute, you will lose billions.

So they must treat it with caution.

At this time, Yuan Zhou was sitting in a taxi and had just bought all the No. 2 soybeans from the Dalian Commodity Futures Exchange.

"With 20 million tons, the market will be full!"

"It's a pity that I have 80 times leverage and still have more than 30 billion in savings..."

Yuan Zhou curled his lips, closed the laptop, and let out a long breath.

He was also afraid that some unnecessary butterfly effects would occur in the futures market because of his stocks. Facts have proved that he actually thought too much.

The futures market is still the same futures market, and the price of soybean No. 2 has also reached a mark of 4,300 yuan that no one can believe.

And his final price is actually 4,400 yuan/ton!

This is a set of data that Yuan Zhou remembers before he was reborn, and it is also the highest level tomorrow, April 3.

Yuan Zhou's sweeping of goods may increase the price of soybean No. 2 again, but in fact the increase is limited.

"At 4,500 yuan/ton, it should be too much!"

Yuan Zhou was calculating there.

"If this is the case, you can earn almost 150 yuan/ton!"

150 yuan/ton, Yuan Zhou swept a total of 20 million tons, which is 3 billion!

Only one day!

Although this may seem like a lot of money, compared to Yuan Zhou's principal of 120 billion, it is actually nothing at all.

What Yuan Zhou is optimistic about is not the rise of soybeans, but the fall!

Starting from April 4, the price of soybean No. 2 will begin to fall directly into Waterloo, rapidly falling below the price of 4,000 yuan/ton, or even 3,000, and finally reaching 2,200 yuan/ton.

It only took 3 months!

This is one of the ten most famous futures events in Chinese history - the 2004 soybean crisis!

This incident also directly caused an indelible impact on China: From then on, China could only survive by importing soybeans from the United States.

Yes, this incident is completely a conspiracy designed by the Americans for a whole year.

In August last year, the United States had been advocating that the soybean harvest was very bad due to the impact of weather. It made major adjustments to the monthly soybean supply and demand report, and even adjusted the soybean inventory data to the lowest point in more than 20 years.

Such news has caused collective panic among Chinese soybean crushing companies, and they are preparing to increase purchasing efforts.

In order to help domestic enterprises, the Chinese government led by its second-in-command, negotiated with the U.S. Ministry of Agriculture, and then asked the other party to purchase up to 8 million tons of U.S. soybeans. The market price at that time was 4,400 yuan/ton!

The contract price of Huaxia is RMB 4,300/ton, a saving of RMB 100.

Don’t underestimate this 100 yuan, 8 million tons of American soybeans, which means a saving of 800 million.

The date of signing is April 4, 2004, which is the day after tomorrow.

Not surprisingly, tonight, April 2, 2004, CCTV's "Xinwen Lianbo" will broadcast this news heavily.

Then CBOT Chicago International Soybean Futures soybean prices skyrocketed. At the same time, international financial speculators also began to spread rumors in China through the media and experts they controlled.

"Hurry up and buy soybeans. The U.S. production cannot increase. Buy it now! It will be too late if you don't buy it!"

"The price will rise to 5,000 yuan per ton! If you don't buy it, the price will rise to 6,000 yuan per ton..."

This is actually a routine used by later generations of Americans to control the financial market through international fishing boats.

But now, the Chinese government doesn't actually know this trick, so it has directly fallen into their trap. Even if it suppresses the surge in the futures market tomorrow, April 3, it still allows soybeans to suddenly rise to 4,400 yuan/ton. !

After that, the script began to undergo a shocking reversal.

…Please give me flowers…

As soon as the purchasing group left, CBOT prices plunged sharply!

International soybean prices fell by nearly 50%.

In just two or three months starting from April 2004, the price of soybean futures in the Chinese market fell from 4,400 to 2,200.

Domestic soybean processing has turned from a profit to an industry-wide loss.

More than a thousand suppressed companies have all gone bankrupt, and 90% have been acquired by foreigners. So now, 90% of the suppressed companies are in the hands of foreigners!

Faced with such a price difference, some domestic processing companies, especially private companies, had no choice but to breach the contract and abandon the purchase contracts and deposits originally signed at high prices. The so-called "shipwash" incident.

In this regard, the measures taken by the United States include: some large international soybean suppliers began to sue Chinese importers for breach of contract, with claims amounting to about 6 billion yuan!

International grain merchants have united to boycott Chinese private enterprises. Except for some Chinese enterprises in which they hold shares, they will no longer quote prices to other Chinese importers!

These suppliers jointly revised the text of the soybean export contract to China. The revised contract terms are even more unfavorable to Chinese importers.

Even in 2020, this dispute is still unresolved.

This purchase caused heavy damage to China's private soybean crushing enterprises. One shipment of soybeans cost hundreds of millions of yuan, and almost the whole army was wiped out. The only thing that escaped the disaster was due to operational difficulties.

According to conservative estimates, this purchase caused at least 15 billion losses to the Chinese crushing industry!

The four major international grain merchants ABCD, of which A is ABM, B is Bunge, C is Cargill, and D is Louis Dreyfus, took the opportunity to acquire and invest in many soybean crushing companies in China at low prices, giving international grain merchants a presence in China. A solid road has been paved.

As a result, China's soybeans have always been imported from the United States, because... the import price of soybeans from the United States has always been lower than the local price!

This not only hurts domestic farmers, but also puts the entire industry directly in the hands of foreigners.

In 2020, it is still the same!

Therefore, Yuan Zhou will never let these things happen again in this life.

He is ready to snipe, the increase is second, what he wants is to go short!

Before the Chicago International Soybean Futures began to go short, he shorted the market first, sounding a powerful alarm bell to the Chinese government and crushing companies!

As long as the 8 million tons of soybean orders are not signed, a plunge will follow.

This is something that everyone can foresee.

The United States has failed to achieve success with its bamboo basket. They simply cannot afford such a high price!

In the end, the price of soybeans can only be lowered. At that time, China's disadvantage will instantly become an advantage, and the negotiating power will be in the hands of China, not the United States.

This is why Yuan Zhou mobilized such a large sum of money.

This is a strategy that kills two birds with one stone.

It can not only benefit him, but also remind the Chinese government.

After all, even if he knew the truth of the matter, no one would believe him if he went directly to the Ministry of Commerce to tell him that it was an American conspiracy.

The short market is different.

This will make the financial circle alert. There are people in China who can do short selling, so why not internationally?

When the signing is signed the day after tomorrow, a very dramatic scene will definitely occur.

Yuan Zhou is looking forward to it, and he is also looking forward to the day when he can short the soybean pattern!

This is the charm of futures.

In addition to making money when the price rises, going short when it falls is the real opportunity to make big money!