Reinventing the Millennium

The ice core is bound to experience this.

This is the judgment that Fang Zhuo made categorically, both inside the ice core and when communicating in the capital.

Everyone generally agrees with this prediction.

However, when, in what form, and to what extent, this judgment is still questionable.

Now, outlines seemed to emerge from the mist.

This is when the ice core approaches the world's first-class manufacturing process level.

When Fang Zhuo confirmed the situation, many conference rooms in the country immediately closed their doors to discuss the current situation.

In the entire semiconductor industry chain, wafer manufacturing is one of the most important and high-end quality indicators. As the leader of the mainland industry chain, Ice Core has an immeasurable role in promoting the development of the entire industry.

If there is uncertainty in the external environment of the ice core, according to Mr. Fang, the possibility of increased restrictions cannot be ruled out, and related domestic substitution will immediately become urgent.

The question is, can domestic products take the lead?

The 12th Five-Year Plan released last year has once again emphasized the importance of the development of the integrated circuit industry, but many links still take time.

For several days in a row, industrial materials including but not limited to the Wafer Service Alliance quickly appeared on the conference table again, and risk and substitution assessments as well as situation evolution were also assessed one by one.

At the same time, although it is still uncertain whether the ice core will come back to the market, the "green light" signal has been passed. Both Xiangjiang and Big A need procedures, but the latter's procedures must be lightning fast.

In mid-June, because Bingxin quietly announced the suspension of listing, relevant public opinion was suddenly ignited.

In addition to the clichés on the American side, Marco, who had previously launched a proposal for ice cores, also stood up proudly, believing that this was only a phased first step and that ice cores must face more stringent controls.

But Fang Zhuo ignored him.

At the same time, domestic media also noticed the situation here.

The semiconductor industry chain is deep, and the major links are divided into design, manufacturing, and packaging. Currently, Yike has first-class mobile phone chips in design, and Bingxin has a quasi-first-class wafer process in manufacturing. In the field of packaging, it has already competed with Bingxin. The overall performance of the joint venture Changdian is also good.

Such a development situation of Yike Department can be said to be a good thing in the business competition.

Because of the performance in the local market + overseas market, Yike is increasingly expected to become the next "Nokia" in China, or some people think that the development model of the entire industry chain is the next "Samsung"...

However, if Yike lacks the advantages of ice core in wafer manufacturing, what will its development momentum be like?

If Ice Core stops making progress, it may be possible to seek OEM services from other foundries. However, does Yike's rapid development have its limitations?

If no other OEM can be found due to the existence of ice cores, will Yike stop there?

It stands to reason that semiconductors are a relatively unpopular field, but after being linked to a brand like Yike, domestic media and websites such as Zhihu set off a wave of intensive and mostly worrying discussions.

After some people in the industry popularized the importance of ice cores and the possible situations they may face, many people came to a consensus.

The ice core is in big trouble.

And, will this also become a big trouble for Yike?

Just at the beginning of this month, Yike has announced the time of this year's press conference. Uncharacteristically, it will no longer be held in June, but will be held on September 29, a full quarter late.

Routines are broken and anomalies gain new interpretations.

Combined with the news that the development of the Ice Core 28nm process, which has been released since the beginning of the year, is not ideal...

Suspension of listing, suspected restrictions, delayed release, R\u0026D difficulties...

Putting all the circumstances together, the Yike Department may also be in big trouble.

Fang Zhuo, who had returned to Silicon Valley from Washington, was photographed looking solemn and hurried, and waved down interviews with reporters.

Just two days later, another piece of related bad news came out.

One of Bingxin's customers, Marvell executives, informally stated that they may end their foundry cooperation with Bingxin due to doubts about the stability of the technology.

Marvell is located in California and is a semiconductor manufacturer that provides broadband communications and storage solutions. It was founded by Indonesian overseas Chinese Zhou Xiuwen and is also a customer that Bingxin has cooperated with for a long time.

Such a statement undoubtedly intensifies speculation that the ice core will encounter difficulties.

However, Fang Zhuo briefly responded to part of the situation on Twitter.

"Strange, Yike is not the only one to delay the release. Don't worry, everything is normal."

The other two Yusan families he pointed to also have no plans to release new phones in June this year. Samsung has pushed the time to the end of July, while Apple has pushed it to mid-August.

For three consecutive months, Yusanjia has appeared one by one. It is unknown whether there is a situation of avoiding war or a problem with the craftsmanship, but this is the situation currently displayed.

This announcement also caused confusion among other manufacturers.

There was some tacit understanding between the three companies' products last year. Faced with Motorcycle's final counterattack, Nokia's attempt to join forces with Microsoft, and Sony Ericsson's desperate breakout, they jointly blocked their advanced routes.

This year...

Blockbuster products were released for three consecutive months on July, August, and September, and the choice was immediately available.

Just pick whoever you want to hit.

Although the media is discussing it and laymen are watching the excitement, there may be real problems with ice cores, but mobile phone manufacturers are aware of the situation. Taiwan has launched 28nm production capacity, but chips based on this process are still in the research and development stage. This year, they can be used in flagship mobile phones. What is online is still 32nm.

However, this 32nm is combined with the new HKMG process, which can have lower energy consumption and higher performance, and Ice Core has clearly mastered this technology.

There is a lot of news, and others don’t know it. Competing mobile phone manufacturers know best. At least this guess is definitely not true.

so……

This year I will go around Yike once, and next year I will destroy the ice core.

Many manufacturers adhere to this mentality and avoid September when discussing the launch date, but there are also brands that insist on launching an attack on Yike at this time.

Motorola, which has been constantly letting off steam since it was acquired by Google, quickly set the time for the press conference after Yike determined the time for the press conference. It was on September 29, without even one day in advance or later. It was obvious that it would need hard steel. Yike, one of the three imperial families.

Similarly, China also has its own motorcycles. OPPO, which still obtains period chips from Qualcomm this year, announced that the launch of its new machine will be on September 25. Although it is not as clear as Motorola, the meaning is also revealed.

While you are sick, I will kill you.

A saying that had been mentioned by Fang Zhuo on different occasions was repeated again: business competition is so ruthless.

Faced with this competitive situation in Yike, business is ruthless and people are ruthless.

On the last day of June, Fang Zhuo participated in an online meeting of relevant domestic departments in Silicon Valley, where they discussed domestic supporting products for domestic industries and also talked about his latest experience in American.

However, just as the meeting was coming to an end, he was asked - "Is this year's Mars really the swan song?"

"Ah? How could it be? Director Zhao, the problem with the ice core is more serious, but our Yike is okay." Fang Zhuo was a little surprised.

"Really? I saw that Sina and other websites called Mars the 'swan song', and I thought Yike had already prepared the worst internal expectations." Zhao Si on the screen said in shock.

"Uh..." Fang Zhuo didn't ask about the publicity strategy for the domestic market. Hearing this sentence, he couldn't help but comment, "A swan song? It's a bit contrived, no, no, our expectations weren't to that extent. I should say this It won’t be there for two or three years.”

Zhao Si nodded and understood the situation.

After the meeting ended, Fang Zhuo looked at Sina. The word was indeed used, but the modifier was added very rigorously, "It may become a 'swan song'."

However, Zhihu and Weibo are not so rigorous, just...

This year’s Mars will be a masterpiece, a masterpiece. Anyway, it will be a masterpiece.

Judging from Fang Zhuo's simple observation, this emotion is probably not spontaneous, but must be guided more or less by someone.

He called Liu Qiangdong directly.

Faced with the inquiry, Liu Qiangdong admitted simply: "Mr. Fang, I don't know what will happen next year. This should be quite effective. We will sell the mobile phones first this year and then talk about other things."

"You guys, your propaganda is a bit artificial." Fang Zhuo put his true evaluation in front of him.

Liu Qiangdong said: "Mr. Fang, just tell me whether this will work?"

Fang Zhuo pondered: "It does work, but it doesn't seem to be like this."

Liu Qiangdong said directly: "I want to do OPPO."

"Forget it, you are the Huaxia president of Yike." Fang Zhuo respected each other's different division of labor and acquiesced to Dongzi's decision, which may have been based on temporary emotions.

Then, after he ended the phone call, he called Yu Hong to talk about the matter and asked whether it was necessary for overseas markets to do this.

"It's good. I'll try it on a motorcycle too." Yu Hong quite agrees with this propaganda argument. A company must be prepared for any risks. If the ice core is dragged deeper into the valley, Taiwanese reporters and Samsung are unwilling to accept it. What about massive orders?

Although it is unlikely, it is still possible.

What she approves of is implemented very quickly.

It has just entered July, and sentimental arguments mixed with "the last song" and "the last song" have been focused on Yi Ke.

Motorola and OPPO are not stupid. After witnessing Yike's blessing and becoming more ferocious, they immediately realized something bad... Do consumers really accept this? Is Yike going to this extent?

How big can this kind of emotional blessing be?

Picking Yike as his opponent in September seemed... a bit abrupt.

The two manufacturers are entangled in whether to change the time, and other manufacturers are a little gloating. I don't know what will happen to Yike in the future. I am afraid that this year will achieve more than expected growth.

It will take time to verify the duel between Yike and its friends.

But after a lot of bad news, some positive news also emerged.

Apple CEO Cook was asked about the competition with Yike Mobile Phones at a public event on the first weekend of July. He did not disparage Yike, but admitted that it was a competitor that could be a healthy competitor.

"Cook, what do you think about the possibility of commercial restrictions on ice cores?" After Cook answered the question, the reporter asked a question that was more relevant to current affairs.

"You all know that I have been responsible for the supply chain for a long time. If I start from my experience, I think from the perspective of the entire industry, the blockade will only lead to the acceleration of the independent chip industry on the other side." Cook said of himself thoughts.

The reporter was immediately surprised and made it clear: "Don't you support restrictions on ice cores?"

"It can be understood this way, but it can also be understood that I don't think it is easy to stimulate the development of an ecosystem dominated by competitors." Cook said seriously, "The final result may be more harmful than good."

Apple CEO unexpectedly expressed his views on the recent ice core controversy.

As Cook spoke out, Nvidia's Huang Renxun also accepted an interview and talked about ice cores.

"I don't understand why a company with a wide range of overseas users should be targeted. Is it just because it has not built a factory in the United States? If so, I think we can talk to Mr. Fang to see if he can put his knowledge of the company in Germany The factory will be moved here." Huang Renxun supported his partners, "Bingxin is an excellent foundry company. It provides high-quality services to many American customers and creates value."

"The value that American companies gain from this should not be ignored, and things in the commercial field should also be attributed to the commercial field. This is my idea."

"Any action that disrupts the division of labor will cause additional trouble."

Jen-Hsun Huang expressed his views.

Cook and Jen-Hsun Huang have spoken out one after another. As the heads of two widely influential companies, their voices have received support from the industry.

Even Intel's top executives have expressed a relatively neutral stance, but his view is that "dumping is always more powerful than blockade", which is a disagreement with the handling method.

Fang Zhuo, who lives in Silicon Valley, has not been idle either. He has attended multiple dialogue events, taking advantage of the voices of support and discussion to express his views on the long-term value brought about by economic globalization and industrial division of labor.

The American semiconductor industry and Silicon Valley high-tech companies have shown support. They do not support ice cores, but do not support such inappropriate intervention.

Economic globalization/industrial division of labor/dumping is better/American companies obtain higher value/banning non-commercial EUV is ineffective/enlarging the scope can be effective...

In any case, these collective voices are contrary to the anecdotal view of limiting ice cores.

On July 14, Fang Zhuo called his "close friend" Austin to inquire about the relevant situation. The restriction of ice core this time will have a small impact in the short and medium term. Since it cannot be avoided, he also hopes to use this to help the country. A stress test, and a more focused effort to promote industrial development.

"Mr. Fang, the business side is making new considerations, and there may be a turning point." Austin unexpectedly delivered new news.

Fang Zhuo: "?"

This turning point...

"The voice of Silicon Valley deserves attention. After all, they understand business better." Austin said the reason. This time he encountered opposition from large companies such as Apple, Nvidia, and Intel for different reasons, and the business side had to consider it more seriously.

Fang Zhuo asked with complicated emotions: "Is there a high possibility of a turnaround?"

"It's not clear yet, but SMIC may be included in the discussion." Austin said seriously, "CSIS said that Bingxin is known as China's second SMIC, and both are equally important."

Fang Zhuo: "?"

It is difficult for him not to try to save his friends and businessmen who are all in the same camp: "SMIC's development is quite slow. Is it really to this extent?"

"If possible, I hope SMIC can attract the firepower." Austin said sincerely, thinking of his investment in ice core.

Fang Zhuo was silent for a while and said: "Expanding the battlefield is a bad idea, and everyone's interests will be harmed."

Austin sighed. In addition to investing in Bingxin, he did have a lot of Yike stocks. The allocation of the MIGA fund also included optimism about the development of Yike.

As far as I know, this is not an exception.

There is me in you and you in me. We really shouldn’t let bad ideas ferment. (End of chapter)