Reinventing the Millennium

One week after the release of Amei Yanxuan, the stock prices of Bingxin and Yike have both suffered a shock, with the former falling by a large margin and the latter falling by a large volume.

As many people have said, the wealth lost by Yike's boss this week is more than the money he has spent in many business competitions in the past. However, in this week, the media has not received any response from Mr. Fang, and Yike has remained silent.

It is observed that Yike's production capacity supply does not seem to be affected, and the sales volume of the Mars 8.8 series has increased instead of decreased, which provides certain support for the company's market value.

However, just on the first day of the second week, a measure with a clearer goal was conveyed from the Washington BIS, which proposed to add new regulations for Bingxin International.

In addition to the first trial, two restrictions and three prohibitions last week, it is now required to review Bingxin International's Meilijian and its listed customers in the United States, that is, to impose additional import restrictions and license requirements on technologies and products from Bingxin International.

In the first week, Bingxin's imports were restricted, and in the second week, Bingxin's exports were restricted, and both the buyer and seller were shackled.

In this way, Nvidia, AMD, Yike and other Bingxin customers will be directly affected, especially... BIS's goal is already very clear, but it also supplements it, providing buffer time for Bingxin's customer companies, and will provide temporary import licenses to protect the interests of Meilijian and listed companies.

Bingxin has many overseas customers, with 23% in the Americas. Even if a temporary license can be applied for, this will undoubtedly cast a deep shadow on the prospects of smooth cooperation between the two parties.

As a part of the supply chain, any company naturally hates uncertainty.

As the only user of Bingxin 16nm, Yike naturally bears a greater shadow, and the impact and doubts it has suffered are naturally deeper. This is reflected in the market value that it has fallen from the highest point of 420 billion US dollars after the Q4 financial report to 370 billion US dollars.

Yike fell to 3700, but there was still no reaction. It just applied for a temporary license from BIS as soon as possible in accordance with regulations.

However, it did not react, and some people needed it to react.

On March 9, the SEC asked Yike to explain the reasons for the recent stock price fluctuations, disclose more information, and provide other factors that may affect stock price changes.

One day later, which was also the 11th day of the restrictions on Bingxin International in Eastern Time, Yike finally gave a formal response.

"We are deeply concerned about the significant fluctuations in Yike's recent stock price and fully realize the impact this may have on investor confidence and market stability."

"We are trying our best to ensure the stability of Yike in the global supply chain and actively explore cooperation with other suppliers."

"We have applied for a temporary license from BIS and have conducted effective communication."

"We will continue to pay close attention to market dynamics and further strengthen communication with investors based on actual conditions to ensure information transparency and protect the interests of shareholders and investors."

The statement jointly reviewed by Yike's management, legal team and financial department mainly released two pieces of news that relieved the market. One is that a license has been applied for, and the other is exploring cooperation with other suppliers.

From the market's perspective, although Bingxin is indeed an important supplier of Yike, Yike is not without choice, nor is it unable to cooperate with other wafer manufacturing companies. However, Yike's silence in the past 11 days is disturbing.

What is Yike thinking?

Or, what is Mr. Fang thinking?

Silence always leads to the spread of anxiety.

Now, Yike's statement has at least broken the silence, and it is considered a positive attitude.

However, just after Yike's response, the media are still trying to find Mr. Fang's voice. Without his personal response, can Yike's current statement represent his true attitude?

But Fang Zhuo still did not accept any interviews from any media at home or abroad.

At the same time, some media turned to interview Taiwan Reporter, Samsung, GlobalFoundries, UMC and other world-leading wafer foundries to try to verify the authenticity of Yike's statement.

Taiwan Reporter: No contact with Yike for the time being.

Samsung: We are positive about cooperation with Yike.

GlobalFoundries: Yike has made preliminary contact with us.

UMC: We are willing to cooperate deeply with Yike, but we have not discussed related matters yet.

The media asked for answers from four companies, and only GlobalFoundries said that it had contacted Yike, which is... not satisfactory. At least, Yike did not lie.

But can GlobalFoundries' technology replace Bingxin?

This needs to be marked with a big question mark.

On March 11, just three days after BIS added measures, the affected customers of Bingxin International received the first temporary import license, and AMD announced that it had completed the approval of BIS and obtained a 90-day import authorization.

In just three days, AMDA became the first temporary licensed company.

Moreover, before this, AMD and Bingxin had only a few cooperations, and it was only recently that it strengthened technical exchanges with Yike.

Some media believe that AMD is obviously "others are afraid of me and I am greedy", and wants to seek Bingxin's blessing in advanced technology, and BIS's approval is also very fast...

Why did BIS approve it so quickly?

This is also seen as a signal to comfort the market. It is not difficult to obtain a temporary license.

Yi Ke's stock price has achieved a certain stability. After all, once the supplier problem is solved, the reputation and R\u0026D over the years will still have strong competitiveness.

And whether it can be solved...

The product situation in the second half of the year will become an important sign. Assuming that Yi Ke can obtain a temporary license from BIS, the 90-day period will only be until the end of June. Two licenses will still be required for Q3 and Q4. Since it is temporary, it is destined to be impossible to exist for a long time.

Therefore, the time left for Yi Ke to solve the problem is unlikely to span to next year. According to the habits of the past two years, whether the new products in Q4 can maintain competitiveness will determine the rise and fall of Yi Ke in the global market.

The short-term shadow has not spread for the time being, and Yi Ke still faces great challenges in the medium and long term.

Not only that, just as Yi Ke is entangled with the SEC, BIS and public opinion media, direct competitors in the market have begun to launch their new round of strategies.

On March 14, Apple settled in Alibaba, set up an online flagship store, and opened up an official direct online channel outside the official website. There are also reports that Apple and Alibaba will carry out greater cooperation on June 18 this year.

What kind of greater cooperation?

It's nothing more than price discounts.

Unlike Apple's still hesitant attack, Samsung's mobile phone discounts are very straightforward. Not only are the flagship phones discounted, but they are also tied to a number of unprecedented discount packages with domestic operators.

Since the release of its flagship last year, Samsung has been the worst performer among the three major companies, and its market share has been eaten up the most by Yike. This time, it encountered a rare opportunity and went all out to make a comeback in Yike's base camp.

In addition to the two old rivals, Samsung and Apple, Qualcomm's head Chen Fuyang, who lost the lawsuit not long ago, also appeared in mainland China, intending to provide more competitiveness to Chinese mobile phone manufacturers while Yike was in trouble.

Thanks to the development of Yike, the mobile phone industry chain in mainland China has become increasingly mature, and the competitiveness of mid- and low-end mobile phones has become stronger. After losing the lawsuit, Qualcomm's standard essential patents had to modify the licensing framework and adopt a different strategy from the past, and this shift started from the Chinese market, which occupies a large proportion of Qualcomm.

With rivals promoting sales and Qualcomm hovering, Yike is facing a situation of internal and external troubles. Even many short sellers who have suffered from Yike are ready to make a move.

At this time, the spread of some gossip dispelled the short sellers' ideas.

It is said that Intel has started negotiations with Yike and will provide wafer foundry services.

In addition, Yike YMS's president posted a small essay in the circle of friends, talking about Yike's Zhurong chip and exploring the possibility of external authorization.

So far, Intel and Bingxin International are the only two companies in the world with 14/16 process technology, and the former does not provide wafer foundry to the outside world, so it has not been included in the discussion of replacing Bingxin by the industry and the media.

But now... Intel's feasibility is undoubtedly a blockbuster.

If Yike's Zhurong chip is sold to the outside world, it will no longer be used only for its own models. The market value of high-end mobile phone chips will undoubtedly rise again, which will further increase competition with Qualcomm.

With the continuous spread of such news, the short sellers stopped in time. It seems that Mr. Fang still has a lot of cards to play, so... let's let each other go for now.