Reinventing the Millennium

China’s Spring Festival in 2008 is on February 7th.

Fang Zhuo is going back to China for the New Year.

Because it felt good for the whole big family to get together last year, this format has been silently continued this year.

This Spring Festival Gala has two sponsorships from Yike Mobile. He also wants to listen to the zero o'clock broadcast of "Yike Mobile sends New Year greetings to Chinese people around the world".

However, I need to deal with Lehman's affairs a little before returning to China.

After two extensions, shorting Lehman ended in March. Even though there was still more than a month until expiration, this time it was already very profitable.

Before March last year, Lehman still reached a high of $72. Later, with the release of the New York Stock Exchange's research report, Lehman's stock price fell to $49 before it stabilized. After that, the New York Stock Exchange's stock price did not stabilize. After hearing the news, Fang Zhuo did not continue to issue targeted reports because Fang Zhuo still had short positions.

On the one hand, Fang Zhuo felt that it was unnecessary, and on the other hand, Summers of the New York Economic Institute did not want to pursue the case fiercely.

However, Lehman's stock price did not rebound. By the time Fang Zhuo met Kong Yu in Silicon Valley, its stock price could no longer hold the US$40 mark and was expected to dive all the way to US$35.

Compared to its highs, this is already a drop in half of its market value.

There are rumors circulating in the market that Lehman is going to lay off large-scale layoffs, but this has not been confirmed.

"The liquidity of the market has weakened. This is all-round. However, it is more difficult for Lehman because of its previous short selling." Kong Yu reported on the Lehman business that he took over halfway. "After all, the New York Economic Research Institute's research report on it is more difficult." Get to the point.”

The New York Economic Institute's move was accurate and ruthless, which revealed an aspect of Lehman's difficulties that was difficult to resolve.

Among them is the expert data provided by Kong Yu for the New York Times.

"Mr. Fang, in fact, I think it's good for Lehman to be able to hold on like this now. Fuld is desperately looking for money, and the bank credit financing news that has been circulated several times has not been implemented in the end." Kong Yu said, "Although I don’t think Lehman will end well, but once it gets financing, there’s still the possibility of a rebound, plus…”

He didn't finish his sentence.

Kong Yu actually believed that Mr. Fang did not need to short Lehman and could just make money in a low-key manner.

But...the boss is the boss, so just do short selling, just get out of it in time.

Most importantly, the actions of the MIGA Fund Department remain confidential.

Since December last year, when Yike Mars started its Christmas shock, MIGA Fund has stopped absorbing external funds, no longer accepts new customers, maintains the complexity and confidentiality of its operations, and minimizes its presence.

Kong Yu now increasingly feels that the liquidity crisis caused by the 2007 subprime debt is likely to lead to a wider crisis.

This is of course a good thing for MIGA funds, but Mr. Fang must be cut off in time.

Out of this consideration, Kong Yu strongly suggested that the short selling of Lehman be closed. Even if there is still a lot of profit to be made from this stock, don't make the last copper plate on the bright side.

He didn't know how Mr. Fang thought about it, but anyway, he adopted the suggestion.

Kong Yu likes the domestic evaluation of his boss very much. Mr. Fang is so pure and pure - the reason why he shorted you Lehman is that Lehman did not do it well. Now that the network is closed and cut, Mr. Fang, who is committed to promoting changes in the mobile phone industry, is still as pure and pure.

"It's not easy for Ford." Fang Zhuo understood what Kong Yu meant and sighed as he put down the documents in his hands.

Kong Yu nodded. Indeed, it is difficult to find money in today's environment. Everyone knows that Lehman is difficult and their trust in it is very low.

Fang Zhuo thought for a moment and asked: "I'm going to accidentally upload my short position on Facebook's news feed, then delete it immediately, attract media interviews, and make it even more difficult for Fuld. What do you think? "

Kong Yu: "..."

He considered: "This can easily cause the media and the market to pay more attention to Lehman's situation."

Fang Zhuo asked again: "How will Fuld react?"

Kong Yu took the role of the head of Lehman... Life is already so difficult, and if Mr. Fang continues to push him so hard, should he be asked to look for him with a gasoline barrel? No! Fuld doesn't have such a character. He has already begged for Lehman, and he doesn't mind begging again!

He did not directly answer the boss's question, but instead talked about Lehman's closing of the network: "Let the short selling end in the exchange between you and Fuld?"

"Isn't this good? At first he shorted me, then I shorted him, and finally we exchanged our shorting experiences. From then on, we parted ways, and this matter came to an end." Fang Zhuo said, "I won't continue to short him, and he will have to Thank me?"

Kong Yu nodded without hesitation: "Thank you."

Although Mr. Fang stabbed you twice, he didn't stab you a third or fourth time, so of course you have to thank him.

"That's it." Fang Zhuo planned to settle this matter before returning to China and leave the United States with a clean conscience.

Kong Yu continued to report on MIGA Fund’s short-selling activities.

He has now discovered that although Mr. Fang wants to make money by shorting, he is also using this shorting to weave a network of contacts. There is a group of people from the New York Economics Institute, a group of trustworthy people, a group of people from Illinois, and a group of rich people... …

And these people who were recruited don't care how the fund makes money, as long as it makes money.

Even when Kong Yu encounters some problems that are difficult to solve, he can quickly find people among them to help quickly clear the obstacles.

Everything is business, business is everything.

On the one hand, MIGA funds participate in Paulson's short-selling funds, and on the other hand, they focus on giants such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that are easily affected by subprime debt. In addition, a small number of funds have learned from Goldman Sachs' operations.

Goldman Sachs has one hand of crude oil and one hand of CDS. The volatility of the former makes Kong Yu's operations more cautious and he does not invest much.

Fang Zhuo was like an old monk entering trance when listening to these reports. He only commented after Kong Yu finished speaking: "Not bad."

"A wider crisis is likely to break out this year, depending on how the Federal Reserve operates." Kong Yu said thoughtfully, thinking of the fund's Geithner and other Fed clients.

Just when Fang Zhuo was about to say something, a call from a collaborator appeared on his mobile phone screen.

"Qimengda." Fang Zhuo said these three words to Kong Yu.

Kong Yu's expression changed slightly.

However, the phone call did not last long. It was just Luo Jianhua, the head of Qimonda, who was negotiating with customers in Silicon Valley and stopped by to wish Mr. Fang a happy birthday - this is what the Chinese said on the phone.

When they actually met, Luo Jianhua's dejection could hardly be concealed.

Fang Zhuo invited the boss into his office and asked Kong Yu to accompany him.

Luo Jianhua drank half a cup of black coffee to cheer up and chatted about the Lin'an factory that cooperates with Bingxin and the global economic situation.

Finally, after he congratulated the New Year in advance, he finally revealed some surprising purposes.

"Mr. Fang, we may have to adjust our order production capacity in the near future. As you know, the global storage industry is going down now." Luo Jianhua said helplessly, "Everyone is bleeding, but some people are still thinking about tearing the wound even more." big."

Fang Zhuo said in shock: "What? Adjust the order production capacity? Mr. Luo, did I hear it wrong or did I understand it wrong?"

Luo Jianhua said sincerely: "Mr. Fang, if this matter was not forced out of necessity, Qimonda would never be like this. I think it is necessary to communicate with you face to face. Please understand us."

He meant to cut the order.

In the storage industry, prices have fallen and the pants are almost gone. The more you sell, the more you lose.

Qimonda signed an OEM agreement with Bingxin Lin'an Factory. Lin'an Factory obtained patent authorization and technology transfer, and sold 1.5W wafer production capacity to Qimonda at a discount every month.

It can be said that the Lin'an factory's profits are very meager.

More importantly, the Lin'an factory has just established its production capacity in the second half of last year and is gradually increasing it, and its customers are also very single. They are almost exclusively OEMs for Qimonda. Cutting orders at this time is tantamount to pulling out the bottom of the pot!

Fang Zhuo's face darkened: "Mr. Luo, your New Year's gift really helps me have a good New Year!"

Luo Jianhua could predict Mr. Fang's reaction and said with a wry smile: "Mr. Fang, if I didn't have to, I would never have the idea of ​​touching the Lin'an factory."

The Lin'an plant produces niche storage, which is relatively low-end and is less affected by this industry fluctuation.

"Mr. Luo, do you know what you are talking about?" Fang Zhuo still had a stern face, "You are breaching the contract, you are damaging our cooperative relationship, and you even came to me to discuss the breach of contract!"

At the end of his sentence, he even thought it was a little funny: "Mr. Luo, are you sure you want to discuss breaking the contract with me that will hurt me?"

Luo Jianhua didn't finish his words. He finished the second half of the sentence under the gaze of Mr. Fang: "Mr. Fang, regarding Qimonda's OEM fee, can we postpone it for one quarter?"

Fang Zhuo was stunned!

Agency fee extension?

Unpaid wages?

Luo Jianhua felt much calmer after finishing both demands, and emphasized again: "Mr. Fang, I am actually here to ask for forgiveness. You just listen to me and say how difficult it is. I don't know how difficult it is."

"The market value of Qimonda is now 40% of the same period last year, and has dropped by 60%!"

"The price of our 1G storage is less than 4 US dollars, and it has dropped by almost 60%!"

Fang Zhuo looked at Luo Jianhua and commented: "The decline in the company's market value and product unit price is quite symmetrical."

Luo Jianhua smiled bitterly and said: "The industry is like this, and Samsung is still planning to increase production. It is really driving people to death."

Fang Zhuo was slightly startled: "Samsung is going counter-cyclical again? How far will the price drop?"

"Last year, the storage price was 12 US dollars, and now it is less than 4 US dollars. Once Samsung's news is confirmed, it may be 2 US dollars? 1 US dollars?" Luo Jianhua cited two figures. The most frightening thing is that he is not talking nonsense, but it is true. This trend.

Industry avalanche

Qimonda suffered a hemorrhage!

Fang Zhuo was silent.

After a while, he personally changed a cup of coffee for Luo Jianhua: "Samsung is backed by South Korea. The competition is not about who can make a profit, but who can bleed more."

Luo Jianhua nodded in agreement. This was not the first time Samsung had done this.

He said helplessly: "There is no way, business is so ruthless. I am also looking for Infineon and getting a loan from the German government. I must find a way to stop the bleeding or slow down the bleeding."

Fang Zhuo hesitated and said: "Mr. Luo, this is niche storage. Just cut off the order. Why do you even have to pay this OEM fee?"

Luo Jianhua glanced at Kong Yu, who was silent in the office, then at Mr. Fang, and confided the news: "Qimeng has reached a very dangerous moment, Mr. Fang, we made a profit of 335 million euros in the first half of last year, including the second half of the year. The full-year loss has already been 218 million euros!”

He said seriously: "This year, in this first month of this year, the loss has been close to 200 million..."

Lose the entire year of last year's figures in one month.

"This..." Fang Zhuo was shocked.

The self-report from the head of Qimonda is not wrong, it is indeed a very dangerous moment!

Luo Jianhua drank the coffee in his cup in one gulp and said angrily: "Besides, there are still people shorting our stocks at this time!"

Fang Zhuo took a sip of tea and frowned: "Really? That would really add insult to injury."

He thought: "Short Qimonda? Who could it be?"

Luo Jianhua said seriously: "I suspect it is Samsung."

Fang Zhuo suddenly realized: "Samsung is planning to increase production while simultaneously attacking Qimonda in the secondary market? How vicious!"

Those who engage in storage hope to die together!

But he said objectively: "However, Mr. Luo, I have to say that Qimonda will be in vain as soon as it is done. You also have to consider whether there is a strategic mistake here. Hey, let's get through the current hurdle first."

Luo Jianhua nodded silently. Now that the matter has come to this, he can only get over the difficulty first.

He looked at Mr. Fang again: "Qimonda is actively raising funds. I believe that Infineon and the German government will provide assistance. As long as this level is passed, the Lin'an factory's foundry fees will not be in arrears, and we will pay you back in the future." There can be more collaboration.”

After hearing many difficulties, Fang Zhuo was not really heartless. He sighed and said: "Mr. Luo, you really gave me a problem this time. Well, that's me. Well, I still hope to reduce production as little as possible. As soon as possible Pay off the OEM fee, otherwise, we can’t continue like this.”

Luo Jianhua breathed a sigh of relief: "Mr. Fang, thank you for your understanding. Don't worry, Qimonda will never fall."

Qimonda is the only major storage manufacturer in Europe, the light of European storage, and will never fall!

Fang Zhuo got up and sent Luo Jianhua away, and also bought a new Mars as a New Year's gift to him.

When he returned to the office, he and Kong Yu drank tea quietly.

After a cup of tea, Fang Zhuo suddenly said: "Tell me, are people like us really a little too ruthless sometimes?"

Kong Yu corrected in his heart, not like "us", but people like you. I am just a knife in the hands of people like you, a knife for shorting Qimonda.

He politely replied: "Mr. Fang, Mr. Luo just said that business is so ruthless, and he understands it."

Should we cooperate more after helping Qimonda overcome the difficulties, or should we short Qimonda to seek greater profit space?

This is a callous answer.

Even though Fang Zhuo was cut off from his job and was owed wages, he still felt that he was not in a good mood.

He silently drank half a cup of tea and shook his head: "Forget it, business is business, let's increase our efforts."

Kong Yu nodded respectfully, business is business.

Business is business.