Reinventing the Millennium

In the first week of April, the "Yike crisis" continued to ferment in the pages of China's financial media.

Compared with foreign countries, most local media are restrained in reporting. At the very least, they do not talk much about Mr. Fang’s personal disadvantage in the public opinion confrontation, nor do they mention the ridicule of Big Short Paulson. They are only based on observed facts. Condition.

But just looking at the facts, the situation seems a bit worse.

The ITC made a preliminary ruling on March 27 that Yike used the company's repurchase and the increase in holdings by major shareholders in the secondary market to stabilize the stock price, which did not seem to have much impact.

However, profound changes have occurred inside.

It is now generally believed that the trend that most spread the crisis of Yike is the removal of products from one of the four major telecommunications operators in the United States.

Since the release of Yike's first-generation mobile phone, sales in the US market have not been able to match the 3G market potential that Europe has been cultivating for many years. However, last year's US market performance was almost on par with Europe.

The most important reason here is the cooperation between Yike and Verizon.

Although T-Mobile has increased its investment in 3G construction, its ranking is still behind Verizon. This is an objective measurement.

Now, Yike's important partners in the United States have announced the suspension of cooperation, which has undoubtedly shaken Yike's fundamentals.

Because telecom operators are not only sales channels, Yike or the increasingly popular sharing model has tied operators to manufacturers. The former needs excellent products to attract customers, while the latter needs subsidies and sharing to bring about price increases. competitiveness.

Such a fundamental shakeup deserves the highest level of attention.

Judging from media observation, this has also been confirmed by Yike's actions.

Yike had to advance the press conference to May 10.

Yike had to force another operator, T-Mobile, to release news of a solid relationship.

Yike had to make some concessions on price.

Moreover, it is said that Mr. Fang also has problems with his funds.

Although the ITC's preliminary ruling has been suspended at some levels, it still seems to have brought about a series of chain reactions.

Short-selling institutions are ready to take action, there are problems in the internal camp, and there seems to be hidden concerns about the source of funds.

Some reporters lamented that the winter of 2009 seemed to have come early for Yike.

"China Securities News" has sent reporters to fly to the United States, hoping to interview the parties involved and take a closer look at Yike's situation at this time, and the senior executives of domestic Yike Company or Fan Yike Company are also more or less involved. Being asked about opinions, judgments, and prospects.

As an important high-level person directly involved in the Yike crisis, Wang Yan, the CEO of Sina Company, has been questioned the most.

Because Sina provided very important financial support to Mr. Fang this time, the stocks were sold and pledged, and the market value dropped by billions of Chinese coins.

But Wang Yan was also helpless when facing the media cameras. It was not that Sina wanted to get involved, this was purely because of being involved!

"Of course there is no problem with Sina. We are very confident in the company's future development. After the Olympics, Sina will increasingly show its elegance as the number one portal in China."

"Share price? Oh, the stock price is only temporary and will not affect our judgment. The company maintains its normal work rhythm."

"Well, Yike..." Wang Yan was asked about Yike as a matter of course, but still gave his attitude directly, "As a brother company, I am very optimistic about the development of Yike. Maybe it is indeed encountering difficulties now, but all problems will be solved. It will be solved gradually, but in the end, the product will have to speak for itself.”

He paused and said sincerely: "Besides, there is Mr. Fang. I believe Mr. Fang."

At any time, Wang Yan felt that perhaps only when Yike went bankrupt could he distrust Mr. Fang. However, based on the domestic market alone, Yike would never go bankrupt, right?

Relying on the experience of being toyed with when Sina was acquired in good faith, Wang Yan intuitively believed that there was still drama ahead, and Mr. Fang should not surrender so easily.

Similar to Wang Yan, CEO of Sina, Yike Huaxia President Liu Qiangdong, Yike President, Yike Director Yu Hong, Shenxin Science and Technology General Manager Wang Fengyi and others all mentioned one point when facing the media. They believed in Yike, and even more Believe Mr. Fang.

This seemingly simple cognition was extracted by the media and became a beam of warm light in Yike's winter.

…

On Friday, April 10, another week ended, and Yike’s stock price closed at $98.28.

Since falling by $100 this week, Yike's stock price has not surged higher.

The power of bad news was slightly beyond Fang Zhuo and Kong Yu's expectations.

It can only be said that ordinary investors are still relatively rational, and the situation that Yike is facing now is indeed quite severe.

According to news from Chicago, fund managers from Bridgewater Associates are also investigating Yike’s situation.

If Paulson is now known as "the number one hedge fund person," then Bridgewater Associates is almost the "number one hedge fund in the world."

Fang Zhuo’s previous guess that Goldman Sachs was secretly shorting does not count. After all, it is just a guess. If Bridgewater Fund can take advantage of the trend, I believe the position situation on the 15th will be heartwarming.

In fact, according to Kong Yu's estimate, even by the 10th, the conditions for a run on the market should have been completed, but this kind of thing requires prepared judgment to be implemented. If this condition is not available, forget it. There are official data from Nasdaq Just have to wait until that day.

From Goldman Sachs to the Bank of New York, I don’t know which one finally leaked the news, but the Bingxin shares looking for buyers did not get good quotes. The two financial institutions they found were taking the opportunity to bargain.

The team designated by Fang Zhuo collapsed after two talks, and they couldn't even act on occasion.

I don’t know if the news that was undoubtedly spread again will attract more short-selling funds, but fund managers who have been silent on Twitter are making full use of such an influential media platform to create Yike’s bubble judgment. .

By the way, I also made a little mockery of the blind and arrogant second-best CEO in the world.

Since Paulson has been dismissed and has had exchanges, he is naturally unceremonious.

He has now determined that Fang Zhuo's funds are tight, and there are unfavorable factors in all aspects of Yike. A new round of impact will soon come, and it will almost be time to exercise PUT.

Once a bubble is burst, it will lead to a devastating defeat.

On the night of the 10th, Fang Zhuo, who had been busy all day, wanted to take a look at Twitter that he had not posted in a few days. Unexpectedly, he saw a joke about himself after just browsing.

Regardless of whether it is abroad or in China, the arrangement ability of the people who eat melons cannot be underestimated.

What Fang Zhuo saw was the compiled "President Fang's Quotations".

——Ahead of you is an abyss.

——Are you such a short-selling king?

——I am rich.

--Anxious?

——Then what are you waiting for? Just come here and go short.

——Hahahaha, because I really firmly believe that there is no bubble in Yike.

——Why should Kallasvuo compare with me?

——Notify Sina and submit an announcement to the SEC.

- Greed is a sin.

——Come on.

Fang Zhuo really talks a lot these days, especially discussing with fund managers on Twitter. In some cases, netizens even add relevant information to make him look particularly mocking.

For example, "Notify Sina and submit an announcement to the SEC" was paired with a chart of Sina's stock price, which dropped 15%, and "Why should Kallasvuo compare with me?" was paired with the ITC's ruling announcement.

Fang Zhuo took a rough look at it and felt that he couldn't laugh or cry.

This... there is no need to spread this, it will be embarrassing when the time comes to cut it.

He also saw another joke from Paulson - I am afraid that Yike's current crisis cannot be solved by just one second-best CEO in the world, and several more will be needed.

Fang Zhuo felt a little horrified when he saw Paulson's words.

Is this the spiritual intuition of the number one hedge fund man?

This time, the second-best CEO is enough for the financial means. Next time, it will be impossible to solve it on my own, and it will have to be stamped by the first-best CEO.

There were too many related jokes on Twitter, and Fang Zhuo quickly lost interest. Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow are two days when Nasdaq is closed. If we stick to Monday and Tuesday for another two days, short positions will be disclosed on Wednesday, and the verification hole will be reached. The moment of judgment.

Compare positions on April 15th, and make final adjustments to holdings regardless of capital costs on April 16th and 17th. The call option holdings will be announced on the evening of Friday the 17th. By then, I should have boarded the plane.

Fang Zhuo unconsciously counted time again in his heart.

The siege of the financial market should have been formed, and the cooperation of operators is still an issue that needs to be dealt with. Verizon is indeed annoying, and AT\u0026T is waiting for a price. This situation will not be solved even if the stock market reverses.

Fang Zhuo has discussed with many executives in the past two days, and I am afraid that in the end he will have to cut profits. The third-generation Mars and the first-generation Selfy will not be enough in the increasingly fierce market just relying on T-Mobile's channels.

The two days on the weekend were uneventful. Twitter would not exist if it were not on. Even if he was occasionally surrounded by reporters, Fang Zhuo had a security assistant to help stop him. He was in a hurry and looked serious, and had to face the crisis situation of Yike. .

This also makes the media write more and more about it. Good CEOs and bad CEOs may only be separated by a thought.

On Monday night, Yike's stock price fell slightly, which was expected and irrelevant.

What Fang Zhuo didn't expect the most was that he actually received a call from Paulson.

The king of short-selling, the number one hedge funder, the holder of a new record of making money on Wall Street... He called directly to express concern for Mr. Fang, who had not spoken on Twitter for a long time.

Fang Zhuo was extremely shocked. This was inconsistent with the image of a high-ranking financial elite he had imagined.

However, when he thought about it, Gasoline Man was just that bad, they seemed to be the same.

"Paulson, you asked me directly about my funds like this..." Fang Zhuo said amusedly, "Does this mean hedge funds judge long and short situations in this way? Should I talk to the media about this?"

"There is a saying in China: take a step back and the sky will be brighter, so what are you waiting for?" Paulson said.

"Paulson, I just want to make a mobile phone that consumers like more." Fang Zhuo's tone fluctuated slightly, "Is Yike wrong?"

"Financial markets have their own laws, and everyone must respect them." Paulson expressed his thoughts.

Fang Zhuo really had nothing to communicate with him, and he didn't want to say anything more before the dust settled, so he ended the call silently.

On April 14, there was only one day left before the position was disclosed.

Even if it was Fang Zhuo, he also felt a little nervous.

But seeing Kong Yu pacing back and forth from time to time, he wasn't nervous anymore.

"Mr. Kong, look at Paulson. He still has time to call me while strolling around the garden. Why don't you learn more from him?"

Kong Yu had something to say about this: "When we announce the position, you can see whether he is taking a leisurely stroll or not."

"Then let's learn from Mr. Yu. Mr. Yu is super calm this time." Fang Zhuo then signaled to Yu Hong who was paying attention to the stock price on the other side. Mr. Yu was very elegant in sitting quietly.

Yu Hong said calmly: "I have been suffering from insomnia since the day before yesterday."

While Fang Zhuo was pondering, the office received another interview call from a well-known media.

When he picked up the phone, it was time for Nasdaq to close. Yike's stock price fell to $96.46, falling for two consecutive days, and the main force taking orders had reduced.

Tomorrow is the time to announce positions.

Fang Zhuo held the microphone, feeling suddenly moved in his heart, and responded to the media briefly.

"Financial markets have their own rules, and short-selling institutions are like vultures, but companies including mine must face up to the covetousness from vultures."

"I respect the laws of the market and hope that Yike can survive this challenging period."

This can be considered a positive response in recent days.

Fang Zhuo felt that this attitude was very mild.

However, what he didn't expect again was that the media directly intercepted a sentence and added another sentence to the "President Fang's Quotes".

——Short-selling institutions are vultures.

Yu Hong was nervous and insomnia, and Kong Yu's hair fell out.

Fang Zhuo maintained a relatively stable sleep.

April 15th was an ordinary Wednesday. The sunshine was very good, and the vultures could see the ground clearly. They could also see the vultures when they raised their heads.

Nasdaq releases data on short positions on the exchange as usual.

The short position of Yike stock increased from 3.268 billion US dollars to 4.212 billion US dollars, accounting for 15.6% of the total share capital of Yike, while only 10.7% of the outstanding shares on the market remained.

-

4.9%.

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4.9%!

That is to say, with the joint wishes of a series of factors such as Fang Zhuo, Yike, Goldman Sachs, and short-selling institutions, everyone finally completed a successful encirclement.

"How do you feel?" The moment Yu Hong saw the data, she subconsciously asked Mr. Fang immediately.

Fang Zhuo looked very calm.

He thought about how he felt at the moment. He seemed to be relieved, but it seemed that nothing had changed.

"How should I put it?" Fang Zhuo looked at the exchange data again and said thoughtfully, "Shanghai Hang Lung is a street, Wall Street is also a street, they are all streets, there seems to be no difference."

Kong Yu confirmed the data again and again. After doing this several times, his expression changed from nervous to calm: "Well, Mr. Fang is right. In fact, Paulson is not bad, but this time he calculated mentally but not carefully."

I have been doing some calculations mentally but not intentionally. I have been locking in options since last year, and today, I have finally filled the last gap.

If people don't harm me, I won't harm others. If people harm me, I will harm others.

Kong Yu thought in his heart, well, it should be almost like this.