Return to Singapore 1995

Li Xiaofan looked back and saw that the person talking to him was a young Western girl with excellent temperament. She had big clear eyes, a delicate face, golden hair, snow-white skin, and thick eyebrows under her high forehead. Below are beautiful blue eyes, and a simple pink dress showing off her graceful figure.

She looks very much like Audrey Hepburn in "Roman Holiday", exuding an elegant aristocratic temperament.

Li Xiaofan smiled at her and said: "I should be considered a little fan of Mr. Hemingway. I read his "The Old Man and the Sea" when I was in middle school..."

"The Old Man and the Sea is so classic that it won the American Pulitzer Prize in 1953 and the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1954..."

After exchanging a few words, Li Xiaofan discovered that the blond girl in front of him was a true fan of Hemingway and knew Hemingway's life and works well.

After a brief exchange, the blonde girl introduced herself as Carolina and she was here for vacation.

When Carolina heard that Li Xiaofan came to attend the Sun Valley Summit, she said strangely:

"Mr. Li, this afternoon's Sun Valley Summit event should be the most exciting speech by Mr. Buffett. It is hard to get a ticket. Why didn't you go to listen?"

Li Xiaofan smiled and said: "I listened to half of it and came out."

"Isn't Mr. Buffett's speech wonderful?" Carolina asked curiously.

"It's wonderful, but the scenery outside seems to be even more wonderful!"

Regarding Li Xiaofan's answer, Carolina flashed her big clear eyes and thought it seemed incredible.

While the two were chatting, Li Xiaofan's cell phone rang. It was Yang Zhiyuan calling to greet him.

It turned out that Yang Zhiyuan saw Li Xiaofan beside him and didn't come back for a long time after going to the bathroom, thinking that he was feeling unwell.

"Carolina, then I'll go back and continue listening to Mr. Buffett's speech. Nice to meet you. Goodbye!"

"Goodbye, Mr. Li, it was a pleasure chatting with you..."

Back at the Sun Valley Convention Center, Lao Ba continued his speech.

"Although innovation may lift the world out of poverty, investors in innovation historically have not ended up happy..."

He waved his arms like an orchestra conductor as he spoke, finally managing to switch to another slide.

The content on the slide came from a 70-page list he had on hand, which included all the car companies in the United States.

"This list contains information about nearly two thousand car companies. The car was the most significant invention in the first half of the 20th century, and it had a huge impact on people's lives. If you witnessed how the country was in the era when the first cars were born, Developed because of cars, then you might say: This is an area I must invest in! However, decades ago! Of the nearly 2,000 auto companies, only a handful have survived. And, at one time or another, these few auto companies sold for less than their book value, which is less than the amount of money that was originally invested in the company and retained. , although cars have had a huge positive impact on the United States, they have had the opposite impact on investors!”

Buffett then showed another slide: "Another greatest invention in the first half of the 20th century: the airplane. From 1919 to 1939, a total of about 200 aircraft manufacturing companies were born. If you saw the Wright brothers test flight at that time Kitty Hawk, you must be excited about the investment prospects of the aviation industry at that time, but in fact, as of 1992, the combined net profit of all airlines was zero, yes, not even a dime."

"I tell you, if I had been there when the Kitty Hawk was being flown, I would have had the courage to shoot down the Wright brothers, and I would do it for future capitalists."

At this time, the audience in the audience burst into laughter.

Li Xiaofan could see that everyone was a little tired of the old cases listed by Lao Ba, but out of respect, they decided to continue listening patiently.

Later, Lao Ba began to talk about the industries in which these Internet upstarts such as Yang Zhiyuan and Li Xiaofan worked.

"Promoting and publicizing emerging industries is a good thing, because new industries are easy to sell. It is very difficult to promote existing products. In contrast, it is much easier to promote products that few people understand, even if they are loss-making products, because There are no quantitative requirements..."

Lao Ba's words seemed to be directly aimed at audiences like Yang Zhiyuan and Li Xiaofan in the audience, and they were very lethal.

"But, you know, people keep investing. It reminds me of a story about an oil explorer. This guy died and went to heaven.

God said: I checked your situation and you meet all the requirements, but there is one problem. We have strict residential zone laws here and we keep all oil explorers in one area. As you can see, this place is completely full and there is no room for you.

So, the oil explorer said: Do you mind if I say something?

God replied: I don’t mind.

So the oil explorer put his hands to his mouth and shouted: There is oil in hell!

As you can imagine, the door to hell opened and all oil explorers began to rush downward.

God said: This is really a wonderful idea. Then, go in and be casual as you are at home. This place is yours.

The oil explorer paused for a moment, then said: No, I think I'll just go with them.

This is how people understand and feel about stocks. It’s easy for people to believe this truth! "

Lao Ba's words caused a burst of moderate laughter, and then everyone's laughter stopped abruptly. Because the audience immediately understood the meaning of Buffett's words: they seemed to be as brainless as oil explorers, listening to rumors and going to hell to find oil.

Buffett changed the topic and returned to the bird in the forest.

"There is no new model in this world. The final price in the stock market only reflects the output of the economy."

Laoba put on a new slide, and the chart showed that market value has greatly exceeded economic growth in the past few years.

"This means that the market conditions over the next 17 years will not be much better than the conditions from 1964 to 1981, during which the Dow Jones index did not grow at all. If I had to give the most likely return during this period, it would be It may be 6%, but a recent Gallup survey showed that investors expected a stock return of 13% to 22%..."

Lao Ba walked to the projection screen, his thick brows moving, and he pointed at a cartoon of a naked man and woman on the projection: Excerpted from a legendary story about the stock market, "Where is the Client's Yacht?" 》. In the comic, the man said to the woman: There are some things that cannot be explained clearly to a virgin, whether it is telling her or showing her pictures...

This time, the audience understood clearly, it meant that people who bought Internet stocks had been deceived. But everyone sat there stiffly and said nothing. No one laughed, not even a chuckle or a snicker.

After all, the previous decades of history have proven Lao Ba right. If someone had invested US$10,000 in Buffett's company in 1965, by 1998 last year, he would have received a return of US$4.33 million! In other words, whoever chose Buffett 33 years ago would have been on the rocket to get rich...

Buffett's words made Yang Zhiyuan and other Internet upstarts look very embarrassed. Only Li Xiaofan was snickering.

Lao Ba returned to the podium and showed the "candy bag" brought from Berkshire Hathaway.

"I just bought a company called Netjet, which sells fractionally owned jets. I was going to give each of you 14 shares of a Gulfstream IV. But when I got to the airport, I realized For most of you, this is really an injustice..."

At this time, everyone laughed.

Lao Ba continued: "As an alternative, he is going to give each of you a small magnifying glass used by jewelers to use it to look at the rings worn by each other's wives, especially the third wife's."

These words had the finishing touch, and the people in the audience laughed, clapped and cheered. But then people fell silent again. A feeling of resentment surged quietly throughout the room.

Li Xiaofan discovered that Lao Ba's current speech about the over-inflation of the stock market was like preaching chastity to a room of people with a bad reputation. Lao Ba's speech may have attracted the audience and made them sit in their chairs, but it does not mean that they will show weakness.

Finally, Lao Ba held up a book and signaled to everyone:

"This book is a detailed and in-depth analysis of the manic stock market of 1929 and full of wisdom. Edgar Smith's book Investing for the Long Term with Common Stocks proves that stocks always return better than bonds. Smith discovered Five reasons, but the most novel one is that the company can keep a portion of its earnings and then earn the same rate of return Reinvest. That’s Reinvesting Earnings: The Innovative Idea of ​​1924 But, as my mentor Benjamin Graham always said: Good ideas get you into more trouble than bad ideas! There are limitations. Keynes wrote in the preface of his book: It is very dangerous to predict the future from a historical perspective!”

"I agree: one can't just assume that stock prices have accelerated in previous years! Is there anyone out there who I haven't taken a dig at?"

Lao Ba finally asked back, but no one raised their hands.

Li Xiaofan naturally remained silent.

"Thank you everyone!" Lao Ba ended his speech.

The audience gave a polite round of applause.

Li Xiaofan asked, feeling that Lao Ba’s speech today was full of “counterattacks”.

In the first half of 1999 this year, technology stocks on Wall Street were replacing the "old economy". The Dow Jones Industrial Index broke through the 10,000 point that once seemed out of reach, doubling in the past three and a half years. In the eyes of many people, Buffett, who claims not to touch technology stocks, has fallen behind in this craze.

Before attending the Sun Valley Summit, Time magazine openly humiliated Buffett on its cover: "Warren, what went wrong?"

Warren Buffett is one of the biggest bears on Internet stocks, but it seems he was wrong this time. Since 1999, Internet stocks seem to have become the only hot stocks. Coca Cola? It sounds like a term from the last century.

During this period, Dairy Queen, one of the largest dairy companies in the United States, Geico Insurance, Coca-Cola, Disney and American Express, Buffett's heavyweight stocks, performed poorly in 1999! In an era when tech stocks are skyrocketing, they are falling.

In 1999, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway's market value fell 19.9%, while the S\u0026P 500 rose 20% during the same period.

After Buffett's speech in the afternoon, there was a great debate among the audience of bigwigs who attended the summit...

Li Xiaofan didn't want to participate in their discussion. He felt very relaxed. He was just here for vacation.

In the evening, the organizers of the summit arranged a closed-door cocktail party.

After entering the banquet hall, the enthusiastic old man Sun from SoftBank Group introduced Li Xiaofan to many bigwigs.

In the luxurious banquet hall, a young beauty in an evening dress caught Li Xiaofan's attention.

Old Sun introduced: "Li, the gentleman in front is Sir Monaxi. His family has European royal blood and is one of the richest hidden families in the world. The one next to him is his beloved daughter, Princess Carolina. Come on, I'll introduce you to her..."

Please remember the domain name of the first release of this book:. _wap.