Simulation: Great Power Technology

Half an hour later, Chen Hao came to Ye Zhou's residence as scheduled. After sitting down, he first went to the kitchen to boil water and brewed tea. After everything was ready, he sat back opposite Ye Zhou with a tea cup.

"How long has it been since you brought this tea to you, and I haven't seen you drink it... What's the matter, don't drink tea anymore?"

Ye Zhou glanced at the tea leaves in his hand, shook his head and replied:

"No, it turns out that the bag hasn't been finished, so it can't be wasted."

"...Well, I really can't refute what you said. I won't gossip with you. In this case, do you want to hear the abbreviated version of the report or the full version?"

Ye Zhou hesitated for a moment and replied:

"Let's talk about the abbreviated version first."

Chen Hao took a sip from the teacup, and after moistening his lips with tea, he said:

"The abbreviated version is just one sentence: the story of Qi Wan Lu Yu in modern society."

Hearing Chen Hao's words, Ye Zhou immediately understood what he was referring to.

The so-called Qi Wan Lu Zhen actually refers to the story of Guan Zhong destroying Lu during the Warring States Period.

At that time, both the Qi and Lu states were producing silk, but in order to weaken the strength of the Lu state, Guan Zhong ordered the Qi state to put away all the clothes previously made of Qi Wan as the fabric, and only use the fabrics of the Lu state.

Such a decree made the unidentified state of Lu see huge business opportunities. The merchants of the state of Lu began to purchase Lu Zhan in large quantities, and many people of the state of Lu also gave up growing grain and actively joined the textile industry.

This year, the grain output of the State of Lu dropped sharply, and the State of Lu turned to import food from the State of Qi through the border between the two countries. As a result, the State of Qi raised the price of food and controlled the export of food a year later, and the State of Lu had to pay a lot of money for purchases. Grain, the domestic economy almost collapsed, and it was no longer an opponent of Qi.

However, the core of this strategy is "production reduction", and Ye Zhou has not seen the shadow of the so-called "production reduction" from the current confrontation about grain.

After thinking for a moment, he asked:

"What about the full version?"

"The full version is: this is an upgraded version of Qi Wan Lu Yu's strategy."

Chen Hao pushed away the teacup, put a brief in front of Ye Zhou, flipped it and said:

"Actually, as I told you at the beginning, the food price spike this time was an illusion from the very beginning, or rather, a false attempt."

"They don't expect to use just one price shock to knock us down, because this is a state-to-state confrontation, and under our huge grain reserves, even in a short period of time, they can cause a certain amount of food to rise and cause a certain amount of chaos. , we can also recover quickly.”

"There is only so much they can gain from this short period of chaos - a tactical victory, not a strategic one."

"It's like two knights facing each other. Before entering a life-and-death fight, the two always have to probe each other's bottom. Such a bottom-out may yield results or not, but it doesn't matter."

"What really matters is the real move after the trial is over."

Chen Hao opened a page of the briefing, pointed to the content above and said:

"According to our current speculation, the opponent's strategy is divided into three parts in total."

"The first part is to push up grain prices regardless of the cost through over-issuance of currency and water releases, thereby forcing the official release of grain reserves in various countries, and they then consume these grain reserves through the four major grain merchants and their agents."

"In this step, they will pay a huge cost of capital, but it doesn't matter. Anyway, Dao Le's credit has almost collapsed. Their goal is to make one last big gamble before the old system is completely drained."

"By doing this, they can hoard the largest grain stocks in history and have the most leverage."

After listening to Chen Hao's words, Ye Zhou nodded slightly.

Indeed, at this stage, although they have already felt the impact from the enemy, no matter from any point of view, it is not too difficult to deal with such an impact.

The pressure of public opinion has basically collapsed. Malicious hoarding and a small package of sales are enough to solve it. Although the crisis of srbija has caused a certain threat, on the whole, the solution has been extremely smooth.

This is a trial hand, and neither side has done their best.

----- However, many countries have almost been killed in this trial.

The boss fights with the second child and kills the third child. This kind of thing is all too common.

"So they are still in the process of the first part of the strategy... Until the food crisis in Yindu is resolved, shouldn't they enter the next step?"

Ye Zhou asked.

"No, the food crisis in Yindu will not be resolved."

"That's their second step: gaining control over other countries through food aid."

"There is definitely more than one country in the world that has fallen into famine because of their first attempt, and even many old and powerful countries, especially in Northern Europe, have begun to show signs of food shortages."

"For these food-deficient countries, they will give food aid without hesitation -- remember? In the first stage, they just forced countries to put their stocks in storage by raising prices."

"And now, they want to feed these grains back to these countries through 'aid'."

"Of course, aid can't come without a price. What they want to replicate is the experience of the last century with Mexico and Argentina."

"At that time, it was through a large amount of grain exports, dumping, and aid that they broke the pattern of grain independence between the two. For a long time after that, and even now, Mexico is still under the control of the ugly country."

"In fact, the role of food does not stop there."

"They will re-stabilize the status of Dao Le's international currency through such a large-scale aid - all aid will be distributed in the form of Dao Le, and then use Dao Le to buy food from the four major grain merchants."

"At this point, the second step of their plan is basically completed."

"They will rely on this strategy to pull up a broad alliance of interests and form what may be the largest alliance group since the Cold War."

"And the pressure of these alliance groups will all be given to us."

After finishing this paragraph, Chen Hao took a sip of the slightly cold tea, and then asked:

"Can you understand this part? Is there a problem?"

Ye Zhou shook his head and replied:

"No problem. However, you haven't explained why the futures price is so different from the spot price."

Chen Hao put down the cup, gently wiped off the water stains accidentally spilled on the table, and continued:

"This involves the third part of their plan, which is the most core part, the food production reduction part."

"You have to understand that in the second part of the strategy, the control they have achieved over the alliance of interests is temporary, because from the current trend, the international grain production is always increasing, and the patience of businessmen is also limited. , the crisis of food shortage will always pass.”

"So, they have to figure out a way to keep food from being disrupted in a 'dangerous balance'."

"This method is to reduce food production."

"But how to reduce food production?"

"Two ways: planned production reduction and physical production reduction. I will not talk about physical production reduction. It is nothing more than seeds, viruses, climate and other things. The former is relatively difficult to understand."

"The former creates forward expectations through the futures market, anchors grain hedging prices, consumes forward grain demand in advance, and creates the illusion of a bumper grain harvest for major grain-producing countries, so that they can take the initiative to make adjustments to their grain production plans."

"A very simple example, if a customer needs 10 tons of grain in December, and he has locked the order of 10 tons of grain through futures now, then, when December really comes, he will obviously not spend any more Any funds to buy food, then, under the control of the market economy, such long-term demand will eventually be communicated to the supply side."

"The supply side will adjust the production plan according to the forward price of grain. Combined with the current high spot price, but the grain supply is gradually stabilizing under the strategy of the ugly country's slow release of grain reserves, they will definitely make a decision to reduce production."

"That's the nature of capital."

"Through such an operation, the overall grain market situation will become like this: in the spot market, grain prices soar, and exchanges and officials tend to obtain grain through aid to survive the short-term crisis, while investing funds in the long-term. Cheaper food, but again, the supply side will start to cut production, stabilizing food prices that they think will plummet after a surge.”

"But who is the biggest grain seller in this futures market? Is it a real grain producer? No."

"So the answer is obvious. Their production cuts will not stabilize food prices in a healthy range, but will trigger a new round of skyrocketing."

"At that time, the ugly country with industrialized grain production, and China, which has an unbreakable red line of arable land, will become the last isolated island."

"And the ugly country has been distributing food, and the spear will be directed at us immediately."

After saying this, Chen Hao breathed a long sigh of relief and finally concluded:

"So, the real encirclement and suppression of us in the grain market has not yet begun. These actions now are just foreshadowing."

"When Africa starves to death one-tenth of its population, when Europe begins to be in chaos, when Yindu is at war with Pakistan, and when international seed companies start to control seed patents on a large scale, then they will truly embrace this chaos. when it comes to us."

Ye Zhou nodded heavily, and then asked:

"So, do we have to play the whole game with them?"

A smile appeared on Chen Hao's face, seeing his expression, Ye Zhou suddenly woke up.

Yes, the core of this strategy is, in the final analysis, production cuts.

However, what if there is no reduction in production?

What if, even if the major grain-producing countries cut their grain production plans, the international grain supply would increase instead of decreasing?

Ye Zhou recalled what Chen Hao told him before.

If the gene editing technology to increase production is successfully applied, it will not only be promoted in China.

But China, Maoxiong, srbija, the three major grain-producing countries in the world.

The food production of these three countries accounts for more than 30% of the world's total.

So, this is the key to breaking the game.

The improvement of productivity is the most essential strength.

If you cut production by 20%, I will increase production by 40%.

No matter how fancy your tactics are, as long as I keep growing food, all my designs and conspiracies will fail.