Soviet Union 1991

Second update

While Türkiye was busy suppressing the domestic Kurdish unrest, Yanayev took advantage of the situation and proposed an amendment to the Montreux Convention. This is also a small conspiracy that Yanayev has been preparing for a long time, taking advantage of Türkiye's busy civil strife to kill it.

After the October Revolution, the Soviet Union announced the abolition of the 1915 Secret Agreement on Constantinople and the Straits. In July 2019, Turkey signed the Lausanne Agreement, which stipulates that all warships can freely pass through the strait in peacetime and wartime, with only limited restrictions on the number and tonnage of warships. However, the Soviet government did not ratify this agreement.

At the suggestion of the Turkish government, the Montreux Conference was held in 1936 to discuss modifications to the Lausanne Agreement. At the meeting, Turkish representatives pushed for the strait to be closed to any country’s warships. The British representative insisted that the Black Sea be regarded as international high seas and opposed any restrictions on the passage of warships from non-Black Sea countries through the strait. After intense debate, the Montreux Convention was signed on July 20, stipulating that Black Sea countries have the right to freely pass through the strait in peacetime; the type, tonnage and stay time of warships sent by non-Black Sea countries into the Black Sea are restricted; warships from belligerent countries are restricted. No passage through the strait is allowed; if Turkey joins the war or is threatened by war, it has the right to allow or prohibit any warship from passing through the strait.

In August 1945, the Soviet Union asked Türkiye to agree to establish a military base in the strait and for Turkey and the Soviet Union to jointly organize strait defense. However, in 1950, the Turkish government announced its rejection of the Soviet Union and Turkey's request for shared management of the strait. To this day, the Montreux Convention remains the current international convention on the straits regime.

Although the Montreux Convention stipulates that Black Sea countries have the right to freely pass through the strait in peacetime, there are still many restrictions on warships. For example, aircraft carriers must notify Turkey in advance. Therefore, the Moscow-class aircraft carrier built by the Soviet Union was specifically designed to avoid this problem. A very strange ship type name was given, aviation cruiser.

Moreover, this treaty also leaves a tail, which is that when Türkiye participates in the war or is threatened by war, it has the right to allow or prohibit any warships from passing through the strait. In other words, Turkey has the right to close the strait during wartime. In this way, the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be completely trapped in the Black Sea, and the entire strategic situation will be very bad and passive. This is why Yanayev has always been worried about this.

Being unable to cross the Black Sea Strait means that your fleet can only fish in the Black Sea. How could a country that wanted the world to feel the majestic waves of steel let its fleet rust in the harbor?

Of course, in the face of the Soviet government's suggestions, Türkiye flatly refused. The Black Sea Strait was the bottom line for his bargaining. How could anyone get involved?

"We need to make a deal with the Americans so that they can cut off transactions with Turkey. Wasn't there a lot of news about the establishment of an anti-missile interception system in Turkey some time ago? The United States is even afraid that the whole world will know about it. Yanayev said.

If the anti-missile interception system had been established between 1989 and 1991, the Soviet Union might not have had any choice. However, in 1993, the Soviet economy began to slowly recover, and it had the confidence to say no. The United States wants to establish anti-missile interception in Türkiye. Unless he wants another Cuban Missile Crisis.

Therefore, the United States stopped after a period of overwhelming reports. Yanayev knew that this was a signal from the other side. I know that the Soviet Union wants you to ask for help from the United States, and now I am waiting for you to come to me.

If he wants the Americans to relent, Yanayev must find interests that are equal enough to make exchanges with the United States. What the United States cares about most at this time is the issue of Iraq, which had made a deal with the Soviet Union.

The United States will not really be unprepared to deal with Saddam because of the termination of Operation Southern Watch. In fact, although the military is not taking action, various CIA forces are still active in Iraq and conduct secret intelligence collection activities. The United States also waited until the Soviets opened their mouth as they wished. Yanayev said that we could make a deal on the issues of Iraq and Türkiye.

"We lower our support for Saddam's government. How about you also stop aid to Turkey?" Yanayev asked. Lowering its support for Saddam means that the Soviet Union will no longer openly assist Saddam's government forces. At the same time, the veto power would not be exercised on the Iraq issue, but the secret transactions between the Soviet Union and Iraq continued as usual.

"And now you have an excuse to send troops. Iraq does possess weapons of mass destruction." Yanayev had an extensive discussion with President Mario on issues between the two countries. For the Soviet Union, the Middle East issue is a strategic interest, and further opening up the navigation rights of the Black Sea Strait is an immediate interest. Compared with playing a game of chess in the Middle East, Yanayev is more concerned about regaining the glory that has been lost for more than a hundred years.

President Mario was secretly pleasantly surprised by the choice made by the Soviet Union. The Middle East countries of Syria, Iraq and Iran were all allies of the Soviet Union. But Yanayev is willing to give up allies to protect his own interests. As expected, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council all have the same face in private, and national interests come first.

"But the Soviet Union still has a condition, that is, the United States and the Soviet Union must test pressure on Turkey at the same time. Force it to amend the Montreux Convention. Only after we achieve our goal will we give up support for the Iraqi government. This is our bottom line in the transaction. ”

President Mario thought about it for a long time and consulted his U.S. National Security Advisor Anthony Lake to analyze the feasibility of this plan.

Anthony Lake thought carefully for a while, and then said to President Mario. "It should be a very good deal. It is a very wrong choice for the Soviet Union to give up its interests in the Middle East to protect its current interests. Syria, Iran, and Iraq are like a barrier protecting the Soviet Union's Central Asian allies, but if If Iraq is captured..."

"Then it is equivalent to opening a gap in the middle of this barrier, which not only separates the two allies of Syria and Iran, but can even threaten the strategic security development of Central Asian countries. Therefore, giving up a Turkish strait to gain access to the entire Middle East With strategic advantages, this deal is still a very good deal.”

Hearing Lake's answer, President Mario frowned suddenly, "Logically speaking, the Soviet Union should not make such a low-level mistake. Things are not that simple. What are they planning..."

But faced with such a big piece of cake, the United States really couldn't withstand the temptation. After thinking about it, he agreed to Yanayev's request. He really couldn't figure out what kind of conspiracy lay hidden behind such a big cake.

"Happy deal, General Secretary Yanayev." The United States also gave up the interests of its allies for Iraq, just like the Soviet Union did.

"The Americans thought they had acquired the entire Middle East, but in fact, what they did was the beginning of a nightmare." Yanayev finally led the Americans into the chaos of the Middle East, the first step. As the Soviet Union analyzed, instead of adopting a long-term confrontation with the United States, it is better to induce the other party to make mistakes on its own initiative.

A long-term confrontation is nothing more than passively waiting for the other party to make a mistake, but by inducing the other party to make a mistake, you can take the initiative.

The biggest mistake the United States made at the beginning of the 21st century was the terrible war in Iraq. Not only did the confident political elites fail to establish a stable pro-American regime in the Middle East, they even triggered an anti-American wave.

When those who tried democratic systems became disillusioned with liberalism, Islamic religious power continued to gain momentum in the Middle East. The United States' failure on strategic issues has affected domestic economic problems. Although the top government officials and the interest groups behind them have made huge profits through oil futures and arms trade, the downturn in the domestic economy has also exacerbated the widening gap between the rich and the poor.

From the perspective of the current interests of the United States, he is the ultimate winner. However, from a historical perspective, the United States' wishful thinking failed and suffered heavy losses.

Unless there is another Reagan-like figure in the United States, the next president will be worse than the last. As for whether Trump will come to power in 2015? Yanayev said he very much hopes that Trump can be the last straw that breaks the American economy and politics.

"This is my purpose to overthrow the corrupt and incompetent democracy established after that and the poor development of the national economy. Back then, you cheated the Soviet Union once on the issue of Afghanistan, so the Soviet Union also hit you back on the issue of Iraq." Yanaye The husband's chess game in the Middle East is gradually improving, and the United States is finally ready to take the initiative to step into the trap. (~^~)