Soviet Union 1991

First update

It is not that Yanayev is not worried about Japan's economic situation. After all, he is the iron-clad General Secretary of the Soviet Union and the Japanese Prime Minister's cabinet is slippery. [?[?[In his impression, Hashimoto Ryutaro, who formed the second cabinet of Japan in 1997, decided to raise the consumption tax from 3% to 5% in order to consolidate the financial situation. As a result, Japan's economy fell into recession and Hashimoto resigned. Although part of the blame was due to the Asian financial crisis that broke out a few months later, the consumption tax hike also bore a large share of the blame.

After Hashimoto Ryutaro steps down, Yanayev's previous efforts may be in vain, and everything will have to start with a new round of negotiations with a new prime minister. In fact, the new phase may not be easy to fool.

Yanayev could not interfere in Japan's internal affairs, so he could only finalize the deal in advance. And Ryutaro Hashimoto is the key point. He was considering another person in Ryutaro Hashimoto's cabinet, Foreign Minister Keizo Obuchi, who was on a state visit to Moscow.

Another reason Yanayev took a fancy to Obuchi Keizo was that he succeeded Ryutaro Hashimoto as prime minister after his administrative reform failed, and formed the Obuchi Cabinet in 1998. Facing the future Japanese Prime Minister, Yanayev believed that it was necessary to establish a good relationship with him now, otherwise Japan's plan to cooperate with the Soviet Union to open up the Far East would be in vain.

It was not convenient for Yanayev to take action in person, so Shevardnadze replaced Yanayev and instilled ** soup into Obuchi Keizo. Of course, this exchange was private and not an informal occasion, because Yanayev did not want to attract too many people's attention.

Keizo Obuchi was a little surprised by Shevardnadze's visit. After all, it is very rare for external ministers to communicate in private.

Obuchi Keizo asked, "Is Minister Shevardnadze coming this time because of the oil pipeline?"

Shevardnadze shook his head, "Not entirely. The issue of laying oil pipelines is left to the delegation to solve. I want to discuss another matter with Minister Keizo Obuchi."

Obuchi Keizo was a little confused about Shevardnadze's purpose, coughed slightly, and then asked, "What does the other thing refer to? If it is a state visit, we should conduct it on a formal occasion."

"If it can be done on a formal occasion, we don't need to go to the hotel where you are staying." Shevardnadze tested Obuchi Keizo's attitude step by step. His tone sounded very cautious. "Because this is related to the issue of partners in the Far East Region's Grand Opening Project, we think we should explore each other's opinions first."

The expression on Obuchi Keizo's face was disappearing little by little, because the Far East Open Project mentioned by Shevardnadze was an issue that Japan had repeatedly considered before. The natural gas and oil that the Soviet Union has not exploited in the Far East are what they dream of.

Once the oil pipeline project from the Soviet Union to Japan is opened, the pipeline gas transmission method will be much cheaper than Japan's current import of liquefied gas by ship. If pipeline transmission can be realized, the cost of importing liquefied gas to Japan will be significantly reduced. Natural gas is one of the electric fuels in Japan. Japan now mainly adopts the method of liquefying natural gas and then importing it. However, the liquefaction input method requires large-scale equipment and special ships, which incurs huge costs. Therefore, the import price of liquefied gas in Japan is more than 5o% higher than the price imported through pipelines in European countries. If Japan can lower its import prices to European levels, based on the import volume in 1997, Japan will pay more than 500 billion yen less.

This is undoubtedly good news for Japan.

Shevardnadze first made a suggestion, "In the future, if we consider the actual situation, we can build a natural gas pipeline from Sakhalin to Hokkaido, Japan. In this way, we can also save Japan a lot of money to pay for imported natural gas. ”

Senior officials of Nippon Gas Company, the Japanese partner of the Soviet gas industry, stated that laying a pipeline from South Sakhalin to Hokkaido was feasible and economically justified. Nesterov, an expert on Soviet economics, believes that Japan is the world's largest natural gas consumer. The price Japan pays for Russian gas is much higher than the price paid by European countries to the Soviet Union. Therefore, the Soviet Union certainly hopes to increase gas supply to Japan, but Increasing the gas transmission capacity and liquefied gas of the Sakhalin oil and gas field project is more beneficial to the Soviet Union, which can increase Russia's flexibility.

Independent Soviet analyst Dmitry Lyukiakin said the project made sense from an economic perspective. Japan's energy shortage is inevitable, requiring more oil and natural gas imports.

"This is indeed a key issue." Obuchi Keizo sighed. Now we are facing Japan's economic problems. If we can use Soviet energy projects to open up the situation, the Japanese government will be able to significantly reduce its burden.

Seeing that Obuchi Keizo became interested, Shevardnadze began to strike while the iron was hot, "And in various levels of negotiations between Japan and the Soviet Union, the issue of building natural pipelines has been raised many times, but it always comes up. Political obstacles. Due to territorial disputes, the Japanese government does not allow investors to cooperate with the Soviet Union on costly projects, such as the construction of oil pipelines. Japan is very close to Hasalin Island, and Sakhalin Island is rich in oil. Natural gas resources. If transported by pipeline, it is much cheaper than using liquefaction technology.”

When it comes to political issues, Obuchi Keizo was a little confused about what Shevardnadze wanted to express, "I don't understand what this sentence means."

"Abandon our political prejudices, put aside disputes, and open up together. If Japan is willing to join the Far East Opening Plan and become a partner, then we are willing to give Japan the maximum benefits. This is why I came to see Minister Keizo Obuchi privately."

After a round of twists and turns, Shevardnadze finally got to the crux of the matter. He told Keizo Obuchi that he was here to need a partner, and Japan would be the target of the Soviet Union.

"So that's how it is." Keizo Obuchi nodded. Although he was already 63 years old, in terms of political insight, Keizo Obuchi might not be as far-sighted as Shevardnadze, who was nearly 15 years younger than him.

"So you hope that I can talk to Ryutaro Hashimoto about it?" Keizo Obuchi did not express his opinion. He was just testing Shevardnadze's attitude.

"I didn't leak the information to Hashimoto Ryutaro, but I just mentioned this project to Minister Keizo Obuchi." Shevardnadze whispered, "And now the Japanese government is trying hard to adjust the consumption tax, right?"

Keizo Obuchi's eyelids finally twitched. He no longer listened to Shevardnadze's words listlessly. This was the first time he looked the young man in front of him in the eye.

His eyes were cunning and witty.

"Since the late 1970s, consumption tax has been the most concerned issue in Japanese politics. In 1978, then Japanese Prime Minister Masayoshi Ohira proposed the idea of ​​"consumption tax". However, due to the defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party in the election, it had to be cancelled. In 1986, Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone changed his name to Shangshui and proposed the idea again, but failed. In 1988, Prime Minister Takeshita Noboru realized the consumption tax idea and implemented it the following year."

"I know that the recent financial situation of the Japanese government is not optimistic, but have you ever thought that the Japanese economy is in a weak period now, and if the consumption tax is adjusted, it may lead to a decline in consumption..."

Shevardnadze stopped at that point. Even if he told Keizo Obuchi that there would be an Asian financial crisis next, the other party would not believe it.

"Believe me, Minister Shevardnadze." Keizo Obuchi said coldly, "We know Japan's problems best ourselves, and we don't need your guidance."

"Then please remember what I said today, Minister Keizo Obuchi, maybe you will regret it in a few months." Shevardnadze said with a smile.

When Japan is at its wits' end, it will return to the Soviet Union, and the initiative in the negotiations will be in Moscow's hands. (To be continued.)