Soviet Union 1991

Fourth update

During the 1998 financial crisis, international speculators tried to attack Hong Kong, but because the central government transferred nearly 200 billion land funds to Hong Kong when Hong Kong returned on July 1, it withstood the impact of Soros and other crocodiles at the time. In addition, Russia played a more extreme move at the time and directly announced the extension of the repayment of 13.5 billion US dollars in debt, which was equivalent to a blatant default. As a result, Russia had at least 13.5 billion US dollars on hand to deal with the attacks of international speculators, which was far beyond the tolerance of international speculators. Under the influence of the failure of Hong Kong and Russia, they finally chose to withdraw from the game.

Now Yanayev does not need to be so crazy as to use debt extension to resist the financial crisis. The foreign exchange reserves that can be mobilized are enough to make any country that attempts to attack the Soviet Union have no return. And those who dare to try to attack the financial stability of the Soviet Union will be gently knocked on the door of their homes by the KGB.

Now oil revenue is the lifeline of light industry, and Yanayev regards it as a trump card to save Soviet industry. If it weren't for Yanayev relying on the government's tough policies, the poor light industry would not have survived from the last gasp to the present.

The Soviet Union had no labor cost advantage, no capital and technology advantage, and even no huge market support. If Yanayev had waited until he earned a high income from selling oil and natural gas, it would have been even more impossible to develop light industry. The high per capita GDP made the light industrial products produced too expensive and there was no market at all.

The Soviet Union could not have low labor costs to engage in low value-added light industry. Because of the high per capita GDP, if it wanted to engage in light industry, it could only start with medium and high-end light industrial products, otherwise there would be no profit to support the enterprise. Since the abnormal development of the Stalin model, such industries in the Soviet Union have always been a shortcoming and lacked social foundation. The income level of a country determines what kind of industry your country can develop. This principle also applies to Europe, the United States, and Japan. In the 1990s, these high-income countries mostly relocated or outsourced the low-value-added manufacturing parts of light industry to low-wage countries such as China and Vietnam, retaining only the high-value-added parts such as design and branding. The Soviet light industry, which has neither high-quality design nor branding, is difficult to develop.

If it were now, it would be a dead end. But fortunately, the foundation laid during the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance is still there, and Yanaev still has a chance to fight back. In fact, Yanaev couldn't figure out why the leaders at the time would come up with the idea of ​​letting other countries develop agricultural light industry while they specialize in heavy industry. Perhaps everything is the fault of the socialist thinking model. It just makes it more and more difficult to clean up the mess later.

Since Yanaev came to power in 1991, he has been working on solving these problems, including encouraging childbirth, and even forcibly opening up immigration policies to attract foreign populations to enter the Soviet Union to engage in low-end labor industry production. The foreign population recruited is also mainly concentrated in some countries in East Asia and Southeast Asia. The government allocates funds every year to develop light industry and provides various preferential policies.

As a result, there was a lot of opposition within the Kremlin. They believed that the government provided so many low-interest policies every year to ensure the development of light industry, which was far less costly than importing from abroad, and that the Soviet people could live comfortably with the income from oil alone, so there was no need for such a self-abuse development method.

However, no one dared to oppose the policy decided by the General Secretary. In the face of such a tough attitude, the light industry, which started almost from scratch, also improved slightly.

In fact, Yanaev did not fail to consider it. From the situation of selling resources later, it can be seen that the single oil export strategy is simply not feasible. One day, the world oil price will fall sharply and then jump off the building. Focus on heavy industry, and import light industry. China's model? It is feasible according to the principle of seeking benefits and avoiding harm, but this will only fall into the vicious cycle of the Stalin model.

Only by combining oil and heavy industry, and then vigorously supporting the development of light industry, can the industrial proportion of the Soviet Union be brought into a benign situation.

It is difficult to reverse the accumulated problems. It is difficult to reverse the accumulated problems. It perfectly explains the current situation of the Soviet Union.

The domestic reform situation can only be regarded as laying the foundation, and the real improvement still has to be handed over to the people who come later. Yanayev has done his best to achieve this step, and he can be regarded as knowing his destiny.

And so far, the Kara Sea oil field is the last life-saving trump card. Although the Soviet Propaganda Department has spread the news that the Soviet Union has the oil reserves of the Gulf of Mexico in just one sea to the world, the real situation directly fed back from the oil mining platform is not optimistic.

The main reason is that the development cost of offshore oil fields in the Arctic Circle is extremely high. The detergent oil developed by China and the United States cannot be used in the permafrost in the far north. This is an important factor restricting the development of the Kara Sea oil field. The result of the high cost of oil extraction is that it has lost its competitiveness.

Yanayev closed the feedback report and felt that the weight of a piece of paper became heavier than a ton of iron.

From now until around 2000, the Kara Sea will officially produce oil. There are still two years for Yanayev to use this trump card as a trump card for blackmail. This is his bargaining chip in the negotiation with OPEC. If a joint advance and retreat agreement can be reached, Yanayev will be under much less pressure.

He stood in front of the window of his office, his back looked a little gloomy. After so many years of confrontation, Yanaev was almost exhausted, but the Kremlin would not age, and it was still solemn and waiting for his next leader to take over everything.

Continue to maintain and raise the trend of oil prices and the Far East development strategy. This is an important measure that Yanaev must get on track as soon as possible before he leaves office in 1999. Money is still the most important thing to solve the contradictions and correct mistakes in the Soviet Union. Without sufficient financial support, everything is empty talk.

"I just hope to complete the last move before everything is over. I have been waiting for almost eight years, and it is almost over."

In the international political situation, the Soviet Union dealt with East Germany, and the next step is that he will target Eastern European countries. Sorry, the current situation facing Eastern Europe is not as superior as it was in history. The continuous global economic weakness has made Eastern European countries incomparable with the development in history.

If the Soviet Union chooses to stop the attack, then NATO will accelerate its eastward expansion, and it will eventually be a situation of death or death.

And death will never belong to the working class.

...