Start 1861: I Just Inherited the Dutch Throne
Chapter 1003 Paradoxical election polls
On October 18, 1881, when Tsar Alexander III visited Melbourne, the Kingdom of the Netherlands, the warm-up match for the general election in the Kingdom of the Netherlands had slowly begun.
William IV convened the leaders of the Christian Party, the Socialist Party and the opposition Liberal Party of the ruling coalition, Linden, Jules Danetang, and Gerrit de Vries, to participate in the 1882 election. At the same time, he admonished the three parties about the election. situations, especially those that emphasize competition and cooperation.
"The Netherlands is the world's leading representative of democratic politics. Democratic politics in the Netherlands means that the sovereignty lies with the people, values equality, and the exercise of government is based on the principle of majority rule. In the development of democratic politics, it is necessary to conduct surveys to understand what the people want. It is an indispensable industry, and long-term attention to market surveys, public opinion surveys and other related fields is an effective way to understand development trends and grasp social trends.
However, in the past few years, some strange phenomena have often occurred in the Netherlands. For example, some unknown small polling companies, or people without credibility, quickly produce a large number of poll results and appear in the media and newspapers in an attempt to influence public opinion. The most negative polling teaching material is that a single or a small number of capitalists and politicians conduct different types of online surveys at will to solve the problem of insufficient respondents.
To some extent, this phenomenon is indeed consistent with the practice of intervening in the election campaign. These quick-service surveys are obviously different from the experts, scholars and professional teams who have long studied public opinion polls. They strive to be rigorous at all levels of execution and use more index-based explanations and analysis to provide the public with more credible survey results.
On the premise of respecting freedom of speech, the participation of many new polls or small polling companies is a normal phenomenon in today's diversified market competition, and it will also help improve the quality of Dutch public opinion polls. However, if it is carried out without any rules, Opinion polls, and unregulated reporting or one-sided reporting, are likely to cause immeasurable harm to the future development of Dutch democratic politics and public opinion polls.
Basically, no matter whether the poll is conducted by a company, a consortium, a media newspaper, or a university or academic institution, it must abide by the rules of the game when announcing the results of the poll.
For public information involving public opinion data, including success or public opinion information, polling basis and trends, survey execution direction, sampling error, unweighted crosstabs, weighted crosstabs, and crosstab significance tests, etc., regardless of the results of the survey , all must be made public simultaneously.
If you cannot explain everything clearly, then these researchers simply do not have the professionalism to design a complete research plan, let alone design an ideal questionnaire, analyze and interpret the data. "
The three of them were listening attentively, and the pens in their hands and the notebooks under them were sliding down the notes.
"There are many factors that affect the results of the next general election. When conducting public opinion polls, the sponsors are political parties, candidates, newspapers, individuals or groups, consortiums, foundations, etc. This should also be clearly stated. For example, our Socialist Party commissioned the polling company xx to conduct For election surveys, interviewers should indicate that they are interviewers from xx polling company and are conducting a public opinion survey for a certain party. This can be said to be the bottom line of public opinion surveys, so as to avoid the doubts of the interviewees and affect the willingness and authenticity of the answers."
William IV said with great majesty: "The Netherlands, as the world's leading and most recognized democratic-sovereign country, we must set an example and lead the world at the end of the 19th century into the 20th century. Our followers will let it Only with spiritual comfort will they be willing to hang out with us."
“In the past, there were many cases of false reporting of public opinion in various countries to influence the polls. The Tories and Whigs in the UK, the Republicans and Democrats in the United States, etc., were rampant, which also led to the people being indiscriminate and directly and reflexively rejecting all public opinion they did not recognize. Interview surveys not only increase the cost of polling, but also directly affect the results of the survey. For example, if we analyze the relationship between the candidates in the UK based on the opinion rate and voting rate, it will soon be found that condemnation represents the direct expression of the interviewed people. The total number of supporters; the latter shows that except for the Netherlands, it is really difficult for democratic countries to have a high voting rate of more than 70%."
"In addition, regarding the specific operation method of weighting, although weighting adjustments can be made based on the total number of mothers, gender and age distribution, for similar party identification, since there is no way to know the distribution of mother numbers, naturally neither can nor make weighting adjustments. conversion. In addition, the specific operation method of weighting"
The three of them stared at William IV's eloquent speech with wide eyes. According to His Majesty William's set of polls, they could already predict how fierce the Dutch election would be in the future.
The three looked at each other with burning eyes. In next year's general election, the three will be opponents. The Socialist Party has grown up and will not unite with the Christian Party again. This is spread among the people. Therefore, William IV's poll rules came out, but It's timely rain. Obviously, it's easier to do things after establishing rules.
Gerrit de Vries of the opposition Liberal Party said: "Your Majesty, all public opinion polling companies must be registered?"
William IV: "Yes, you must register. When registering, you must also note the political party and attributes of the polling company."
Jules Danetant of the Socialist Party: "Your Majesty wants to exclude small polling companies from government control?"
The other two people heard this and looked over.
William IV shook his head and denied: "No"
Seeing the surprised expressions on the three people's faces, William IV said: "I think that long-term peace and stability should be under the control of Congress."
"I think polling companies can play a very important role in guiding society. They must be well controlled and cannot be biased towards any particular political party. Only in this way can they contribute to healthy competition in the Dutch election and serve the people."
Linden nodded and said: "Now that the political parties in the Netherlands have started running for elections, it is timely that Your Majesty sets the rules."
The other two people also sighed.
The three of them were at odds with each other, and William IV saw it.
Out of this door, perhaps driven by the three people, the general election in the Netherlands, which is still a year away, has become more intense.
Suddenly, Jules Danetant next to him said: "Your Majesty, the Dutch elections need it. If foreign countries learn from us to use polls to manage their domestic elections, how should we intervene?
Your Majesty just said that if the data of the polling company is leaked by the governments or parliaments of various countries, it will indeed become difficult for us to penetrate each other. "
Linden and the two couldn't help but be attracted by this statement.
The Netherlands currently has many interest groups within various countries. Whoever comes to power is related to the changes in the interests of the Netherlands there.
Therefore, if other countries follow the example of the Netherlands, it will cause huge losses to the interests of the Netherlands.
These people have been in the political arena for a long time, so they naturally understand why they value you.
William IV raised his head slightly, put the teacup to his mouth, and said, "Penetrate into their base - Congress, infiltrate into the members. At that time, the Congress still had the final say in polling. Of course, the polling company could also control it. It’s just with the cooperation of local MPs.”
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