The Fourth Financial Crisis
Chapter 228 The Art of Valuation
The entry of the Qingning Chamber of Commerce is equivalent to sharing the shares of other members of the consortium, which will definitely cause dissatisfaction among other members of the consortium. However, Su Yuanfeng gave other shareholders an irresistible reason: behind Li Qingning stood Li Qingyang, the president of the Lingshi Reserve Bank, to win over Qingning. The entry of the Ning Chamber of Commerce will greatly enhance the political bargaining chip of the consortium!
I have to say that Li Qingyang's banner is really easy to use.
Su Yuanfeng didn't even need to state the reason clearly. As long as he gave some hints, other members of the consortium would understand it.
According to the estimates of the Haiya Chamber of Commerce, with the support of the consortium's strong economic strength and strong political background, the Yangjiang Port equity transfer transaction is at least 60 to 70% certain to be successfully won. As long as this deal is concluded, it will undoubtedly bring the cooperation between Qingning Chamber of Commerce and Haiya Chamber of Commerce to a higher level.
However, during the quotation stage, the Shenhuo Sect quoted an extremely high price that was very unacceptable.
I saw Li Qingning stretching out two slender fingers and saying with a rather unhappy expression: "The Shenhuo Sect is simply greedy. According to the quotation they gave, our return on investment for the acquisition of Yangjiang Port may not even reach 2%!"
However, Yang Lu shook his head disapprovingly: "Shenhuo Sect is not doing charity, so the price will definitely be higher!"
"But this is too outrageous!" Li Qingning had an unreasonable expression on his face, and he complained wildly about the greed of the Shenhuo Sect, "If we buy shares at this price, the return on investment of Yangjiang Port will even be lower than the normal business of the Qingning Chamber of Commerce. Not comparable. Now even the Haiya Chamber of Commerce is hesitant to accept this business. After all, there are many poorly managed chambers of commerce in Zhongzhou. There is no need to accept the deal from the Shenhuo Sect. As for Arctic State Haiyuan The overseas chambers of commerce on the island are now becoming hesitant."
Is there such a thing?
Yang Lu's hand holding up the tea cup froze slightly, and his mind quickly analyzed the cause and effect of the matter.
It wasn't until Miss Qingning couldn't sit still that Yang Lu asked again: "I heard that the equity transfer of Yangjiang Port is a major matter promoted by Tian Daxiao personally. Is that true?"
Li Qingning didn't know why Yang Lu asked this, so he nodded honestly and said: "It is said to be like this!"
Yang Lu slowly put down the tea cup and said in a decisive tone: "Then tell Han Fulai and Su Yuanfeng that we must win this business. If they want to ask, then you can say that it was me, Yang Lu, who suggested this!"
"Why?" Yang Lu answered without a doubt, but Li Qingning was put off. "Why do we have to go to such an outrageous offer? What's more, Shenhuo Sect also requires our Haiya Consortium to send someone to take over Yangjiang Port. Their daily operations and management work, isn’t this asking us out-of-state workers to work for them in vain? No matter how you look at it, this business is not worth it!”
Looking at Li Qingning's confused expression, Yang Lu smiled and asked: "Miss, do you think it is difficult to manage the port terminal?"
After all, Li Qingning had three years of experience in chamber of commerce management, and he replied without thinking: "In fact, it's not difficult. Managing ports and terminals is more of a tedious daily job. For a business like this to collect rent, even if you want to lose money, it's very difficult. Difficult. However, this matter cannot be called simple. After all, it still requires a lot of practical daily management work, which will inevitably involve a lot of energy."
"That's it!" Yang Lu showed an encouraging smile, and then continued to explain, "Terminal management, port operations, official road maintenance, and warehouse leasing are all good businesses that collect rent on the ground, and their management difficulty is much lower. For manufacturing and commerce. According to the most basic business logic, if the return on investment is the same, all major cultivation chambers of commerce should be inclined to invest in these businesses. However, this is not the case. Do you know why?"
Yang Lu's question stopped Li Qingning on the spot.
This seems to be the truth!
When the return on investment is about the same, there is no need for the major cultivation chambers of commerce to work hard on manufacturing or ocean-going trade. Isn’t the franchise business of “I drive this road and plant this tree” such as terminal management, port operation, official road maintenance, and warehouse leasing not exciting enough? Are we all fools who can't see that it's more comfortable to sit on the ground and collect rent?
"If the investment return rate is similar, it must be more suitable to collect rent on the ground than to produce and operate. In this way, Huoyunzhou's price is still reasonable? But why did no one see such an obvious thing in the past?"
Seeing that Li Qingning had been deceived by his own logical trap, Yang Lu smiled and directly announced the answer: "Of course you are not stupid. Infrastructure such as ports and docks seem to be able to collect rent on the ground, no matter what the weather is. Whether it is bad or not, it does not affect one's own profits. However, the biggest risks are hidden behind these businesses. Think about it, what happened to Haiya City official road and Haiya City port during the Ascension Conference and the Outlying Island War. …”
Li Qingning suddenly had a flash of inspiration and suddenly realized: "I understand! You are referring to the policy risks of the Infinite Sword Sect!"
Compared with Yangjiang Port, Haiya Port, which has a larger cargo flow, should theoretically be more profitable.
Yang Lu once thought that the Haiya City port and the several official roads connecting Haiya City should be the main source of profit for the Haiya system, but later he discovered that this might not be the case.
Even in the long term, the profit contribution of Haiya Port and Haiya Official Road to the Haiya System is almost zero.
Although ports and official roads are indeed businesses that collect money from the ground, their maintenance and operating costs are not low.
If all affairs in Haiya City can be decided by the Haiya Department itself, and all commercial activities can be carried out normally in accordance with market-oriented principles, then there is no doubt that these two infrastructure assets will contribute a lot of profits. However, this is only the most ideal situation, and the real situation is far from this.
It had only been a year since Yang Lu came to the Kyushu cultivation world with full intentions, and the Haiya City port and the official road had already been shut down once.
The first time was to hold the Immortal Ascension Conference. The ocean trade in Haiya City was temporarily suspended for two months, and even the official roads were open for free to the crowds of mortals seeking immortality.
The second time was during the Outlying Island War. In order to ensure that the Haiya Fleet could complete supplies in time and support the outlying island battlefield as soon as possible, the Wuliang Sword Sect directly issued a temporary ban to prohibit any goods other than war supplies from occupying the official road.
However, whether it was the closure of Haiya Port or the requisition of Haiya official roads, it was not decided by the Haiya faction itself, but by an administrative order from the Wuliang Sword Sect. During this period, the daily maintenance and management of the port and official roads cannot be stopped, which means that during this period of shutdown, these assets will face huge losses every day.
And due to extremely high fixed costs, this type of business only needs to be shut down for a month, and the work will be wasted in a year. This is why infrastructure assets such as docks, official roads, ports, and warehouses seem to be particularly easy to make money, and the return on investment is not bad, but everyone's investment enthusiasm is still not high.
Seeing that Li Qingning had understood what he meant, Yang Lu continued to explain patiently: "No matter where it is, the biggest risk of infrastructure assets is political risk, or it can also be said that contract risk. On the surface, our Cultivation Chamber of Commerce is When buying ports, we are actually buying the credit endorsement of the forces behind the ports. In other words, we are actually betting that the political forces where these assets are located will respect property rights and the rule of law. This is why ports with the same throughput, The valuation of the Zhongzhou port is several times higher than that of the Donghuangzhou port, but no one is interested in the Donghuangzhou port!"
Li Qingning also knew about the situation in Donghuang Prefecture.
As one of the seven major sects in Kyushu, the Overlord Guiyi Sect of the Eastern Barren State is the only overlord-level sect trapped in the quagmire of civil war today.
The monks of the Gui Yi Sect and the secular monks have been vendetta against each other for thousands of years. The two sides have already accumulated a blood feud. Even President Lu Yang personally intervened to mediate, but he could not end the bloody vendetta between the two sides.
It is precisely because Donghuang Prefecture has been in a state of civil war for a long time that the prices of various local infrastructure assets are as low as cabbage. Overseas cultivators often just sign a contract to buy a port. As a result, within a few years, the cultivator forces behind the port are easily Then the new cultivator forces that came to power refused to recognize the contract signed by the previous ruler, directly took over the port that had been sold, and then put it up for sale again.
Under this situation, no matter how high the potential revenue of Donghuang State Port is, no one would dare to lick the blood.
Although Zhongzhou has maintained peace and stability for a long time, the Infinite Sword Sect has always been the Sword of Damocles hanging in the air.
For example, Tianshu City was severely damaged by a beast disaster. In order to help Tianshu City complete its reconstruction as soon as possible, the Wuliang Sword Sect announced that all caravans transporting building materials to Tianshu City would be exempted from tolls for three years.
However, much of the maintenance and collection of official roads in Tianshu City has been outsourced by the Shanying Sect to private chambers of commerce. As a result, the Wuliang Sword Sect issued an administrative order. These private chambers of commerce that contracted the maintenance of the official roads in Tianshu City directly Will face huge losses.
Although many cultivation chambers of commerce that suffered heavy losses protested to the Wuliang Sword Sect, they were angrily rebuked by Lin Jianxing, the leader of the Wuliang Sword Sect, saying that you, a bunch of unscrupulous cultivation capitalists who are struggling to make a fortune, do you want to force the people of Tianshu City to death? ?
When Yang Lu talked about this public case in Tianshu City's official road, there was a hint of ridicule in his tone. This made Li Qingning feel a little confused and said: "Do you think Wuliang Sword Sect has done something wrong? I think what the head of Lin Jianxing said is right! The people in Tianshu City have no houses to live in, and these unscrupulous cultivation chambers of commerce continue to operate in the official way. Setting up a card to charge fees is indeed a bit unkind!”
Yang Lu just smiled coldly: "Of course Lin Jianxing is wrong! This is simply nonsense without understanding the basic principles of economics!"
"Why did you say that?"
Yang Lu lightly knocked on the table and said: "The Wuliang Sword Sect waives tolls. The original intention is to subsidize the Shanying Sect. However, this approach itself hurts the credibility of the Shanying Sect. The terrain of the Tianshu Mountains is dangerous, and the Shanying Sect sect The main source of finance is the income obtained from contracting out the official roads of the Tianshu Mountains. If the Wuliangjian Faction ignores the interests of the contractors and uses administrative orders to force them to give profits to the Mountain Eagle Faction at will, who do you think will dare to contract the mountains in the future? The official reputation of the Eagle Faction? In the end, it is the Mountain Eagle Faction and the people of Tianshu City who are damaged by this!"
"Then what do you think the Infinite Sword Sect should do?"
"Which is the lesser of two evils, Wuliang Sword Sect might as well just give money to the victims of Tianshu City!" Yang Lu snorted coldly and expressed his opinion, "However, Lin Jianxing is short-sighted and does not understand the value of credit at all. Using the legal system as a tool to unite the party and oppose dissidents can only be a short-sighted move that is generous to others. In the end, it is the interests of the entire Zhongzhou that will be harmed. Similar assets in Zhongzhou can only be sold at cabbage prices, causing greater indirect damage to the cultivation sects in various places. Loss. Because no one knows whether the assets they bought at a high price will be lost because of an order from the Infinite Sword Sect!"
This kind of naked practical economic theory is obviously difficult for the naive and simple Li Qingning to accept immediately.
After thinking for a long time, she showed an expression that seemed to understand, nodded slowly and said: "I understand what you mean. They are also ports and official roads of considerable value. They can be sold at high prices in places with good credit. Places with bad credit cannot sell at high prices. Due to the years of civil war in Donghuang Prefecture, the political credibility of the major cultivation forces has been reduced to waste paper, so the assets they are responsible for managing are also waste paper. No one dares to buy them no matter how much they pay. , and although Zhongzhou is peaceful and stable, because the Wuliang Sword Sect often interferes in local affairs, the credit level of the Wuliang Sword Sect is not high, and the assets cannot be sold at high prices..."
"...This is why I said that what we buy is not a port, but the credit endorsement of the cultivation forces behind the port. Even if it is a port with the same throughput, the backer behind it is the Shenhuo Sect, the Infinite Sword Sect, or Guiyi Door, its valuation will be very different." Yang Lu put on a teachable expression and completed what Li Qingning had not finished.
If someone else had taught him such an unworthy expression, Li Qingning would have drawn his sword in a hurry.
But now Li Qingning had subconsciously regarded Yang Lu as the person he trusted most, so he didn't feel there was anything wrong with his preaching tone, and fell into deep thought again.
Yang Lu's theory was also summed up by his many years of hard work in the earth's capital market. Even among the earth's rulers and investors, there are only a few people who can see this level. The more Li Qingning thinks about it, the more he feels that it is It makes sense, I even got a little distracted in the end.
She had only experienced this kind of subtle meaning, the ability to see through phenomena and see the essence in just a few words, from her great-grandfather. Now she actually felt the same quality in Yang Lu. The way Li Qingning looked at Yang Lu Nothing is right.
Yang Lu noticed that Li Qingning was suddenly staring at him infatuatedly, and he couldn't help but blush: Miss, although we are quite handsome, don't look at me with such a nymphomaniac expression!
Fortunately, Li Qingning did not keep staring at Yang Lu, but quickly lowered his head again. Yang Lu was not in a hurry, and just looked at Li Qingning's perfect profile with a slight frown on his face. This is the benefit of a beautiful girl. Even if she does nothing and lets others watch, it is a visual enjoyment!
A few days ago, Yang Lu heard Ji Sihan accidentally mention that Tian Beixi was also a rare beauty, and her beauty was almost as good as Li Qingning's. Although Yang Lu and Tian Beixi fought in the air for several rounds, he never really observed the opponent's appearance carefully. He only saw Tian Beixi's appearance from a distance through the enhanced five senses, and he didn't know whether Ji Sihan was bragging.
Considering that Ji Sihan is one of the very few people who has met Tian Beixi and Li Qingning at the same time, this evaluation should be fairly objective...
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