The investment era of rebirth

When Gu Chijiang heard this, he glanced at the trading team leader and asked, "Do you think we can take it again?"

“I think the underlying logic of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group has not changed.” The trading team leader said, “And as a major domestic economic center, the Shanghai stock market is expected to return to economic growth, like Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group.

I think Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, a basic logic stock that directly benefits from the local economic construction of the Shanghai stock market, can continue to hold and wait for further reversal of relevant fundamentals. At least... we should wait for the annual report before making a decision."

"Team Leader Lin, you are a bit reluctant to hold on to your logic!" Hao Weilai said with a smile, "The most important thing to avoid is hesitation when holding stocks. The semi-annual reports of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group have already revealed their performance.

The nature of recession, and... Looking at the second half of the year, based on our research and various market information, it is not enough to prove that these two stocks can usher in a reversal of performance in the second half of the year, that is, it cannot prove their performance.

able to get back on the growth curve.”

"in my opinion……"

"The process of holding shares is a process of continuous trial and error."

"We cannot determine which stocks can truly reverse their predicament, so... we can only continue to remove the weak and retain the strong, leaving the targets with the highest probability and the highest recognition of market capital."

"Judging from the performance of today's call auction, it is obvious that market funds' recognition of Jincheng Fenjiu's performance is significantly higher than that of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group."

"Market funds don't lie..."

"This means that the probability of Jincheng Fenjiu's predicament reversing is significantly greater than that of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group."

"Furthermore, comparing the overall performance and performance of the three stocks this year, as well as the current valuation level, Jincheng Fenjiu is obviously oversold than Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, with a lower valuation level and better performance. So

…What’s wrong with eliminating the weak and retaining the strong, and converging the future risks of investment toward individual stocks with smaller risk probabilities?”

"I'm not saying that it's wrong to eliminate the weak and retain the strong when the performance of the holding target is lower than expected." Leader Lin retorted, "I'm just saying... As a long-term investment fund, our 'Jingda No. 1' should look at

Take a longer-term view and don’t just look at the immediate quarterly report when making investments.”

"If we really follow the quarterly report..."

"In the performance report announced yesterday, the widely discussed Netspeed Technology and Fenda Technology, as well as many Apple industry chain stocks, such as Goertek, OFILM Technology, etc., all have very good performance growth rates. Do we want to go high?

Should we pursue these stocks that have doubled or tripled in the short term, and whose PE is over 100 times?”

"That's naturally impossible." Hao Weilai said, "A bear market focuses on quality, and a bull market focuses on momentum. Popular stocks such as GEM are too far away from normal valuations. Chasing prices at high levels is extremely risky."

"That's it." Team Leader Lin paused and continued, "I'm not saying that Jincheng Fenjiu or even the liquor sector is not good. Compare the overall average valuation of the liquor sector in 2011, 2012, and even the entire sector in the previous ten years.

, At this time, the liquor sector has indeed been significantly underestimated and is very cost-effective, but..."

"Don't we already have enough positions in Jincheng Fenjiu?"

"If we increase our position in the liquor sector, I'm afraid there will be a risk of concentrated holdings!"

"If you remove the weak and retain the strong, how come there is a risk of concentrated shareholding?" Hao Weilai did not agree with the words of Team Leader Lin. He chuckled and said, "At present, in addition to Jincheng Fenjiu, the current funds in China Baosteel and Shenhua Coal

Aren’t the positions held in the industry and commercial banks not counted?”

"Moreover, we know that the current liquor sector has all the conditions and expectations for a reversal of the predicament."

“Furthermore, valuations have hit rock bottom, and the ratio of shareholding risks to future profits is already quite attractive. In such a situation... we still have to hold onto risks that are relatively high, and there is no prospect of it being seen for some time in the future.

Risk stocks showing signs of reversal, will they continue to lose money?”

While the two were debating, the time had reached 9:25, and the collective bidding in the two cities ended.

Jincheng Fenjiu opened higher by 2.1%, and a total of 1,231 lots of orders were traded in the call auction, which was significantly higher than the previous trading days. The Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao Two Checks also had a call auction volume of 1,000 lots.

The above also reflects the trend of heavy volume.

It's just that Jincheng Fenjiu's price is rising due to heavy volume, while these two checks are falling due to heavy volume.

Facing such an opening scene, Gu Chijiang was silent for a moment and said: "Let's see how the market goes after the opening. As Director Hao said, everyone has different psychological expectations when it comes to the fundamentals and future of stocks.

, it’s difficult to make a decision, but the market’s capital selection will not deceive people.”

"If Jincheng Fenjiu, and even the entire liquor sector, has indeed received significant recognition from market funds."

"And the funds on the market of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group have been outflowing, and their ability to take over is not strong, and the stock prices are also falling, so there is really nothing to hesitate."

"As for the funds released by stopping losses if the stock trends of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group are seriously worse than expected..."

"We can make further plans and discuss where to invest."

The market has been oscillating back and forth for almost 20 days at 2000 points, and the GEM index has clearly broken through upward with volume. Although Gu Chijiang does not understand the logic of the GEM's continued dominance, like many institutional fund managers, he thinks it is the market.

Hot money is on the GEM, taking advantage of the ease of market regulation to speculate randomly, but at the same time, he clearly feels that this is the bottom of the market.

According to the overall investment strategy.

Here, he no longer needs to panic and can enter the position with confidence and boldness.

Therefore, even if the fund positions are withdrawn from Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, he will not let the funds idle in the fund account.

certainly……

As Hao Weilai is seriously optimistic about the liquor sector, can it turn around and lead the blue-chip sector of the main board market in the second half of the year to get out of the quagmire and resume its upward trend?

At present, he is not entirely sure.

We still have to wait patiently for a few days to see how strongly market funds attack and recognize this sector.

Only then can you make the final decision on whether to add to this sector.

However, based on the fundamental analysis of the major sectors in the current market, it is true that the liquor sector has been seriously oversold and offers great value for money.

At least since he's been involved in market trading...

I have never seen such a valuation of less than 15 times PE in the liquor sector, which is the core of "big consumption".

Therefore, it was only when Hao Wei took a good look at this sector and suggested that he appropriately reduce his holdings of Shenhua Coal, Huaguo Baosteel, China Commercial Bank and other weighted core stocks, and increase his position in Jincheng Fenjiu, which has the best relative performance in the liquor sector, that he

Without much hesitation, I agreed directly.

After all, facing the temptation of the valuation of this sector, he was really a little moved in his heart.

During this period, younger members of the company, such as Mu Yao and Liu Ze, also suggested that he should pursue some popular GEM stocks such as Internet Speed ​​Technology, Fenda Technology, and LeTV.

He was also moved when he saw that the GEM has been significantly stronger than the main board recently.

Unfortunately, facing the 100-fold PE valuation of so-called growth stocks such as Internet Speed ​​Technology and Fenda Technology, as well as the trend that continued to be hyped by hot money, he really couldn't make a move and only made symbolic purchases when the market fell back.

I bought some LeTV as a supplement to participate in the GEM market.

Of course, LeTV’s valuation is also over 100 times PE.

This resulted in him not daring to make a heavy move even if he participated in building a position on this stock.

After all, for such a ticket... based on his many years of market experience, it is easy to speculate, but once there is no funds to continue attacking, the decline will be very rapid.

Currently, the net values ​​of the company's three funds are below 0.9.

He really doesn't have the courage to bet heavily on GEM concept stocks dominated by hot money.

Therefore, if you struggle and struggle, you will miss the GEM market more and more. You can only focus on the main board as the research object, and study the so-called 'dilemma' where the risk is low, the oversold is serious, but the future upside potential is not low.

Invert' the plate.

"Okay, Mr. Gu..."

Seeing that Gu Chijiang had already spoken, Hao Weilai and Team Leader Lin stopped arguing and nodded one after another.

When the three of them turned their attention back to the trading boards of the two cities, they saw that the time had passed 9:30. The stock prices of Jincheng Fenjiu, Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, and Waigaoqiao were jumping rapidly. On-site and off-site funds were constantly being bought and sold.

, showing different trends and forms.

At 9:35, Jincheng Fenjiu's stock price climbed to a 3.78% increase under the main attack of three consecutive 1,000 large orders, while Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao continued to increase their volume and continued to fall, with a decline of more than 2.7%. During this period

, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, and the ChiNext Index all showed a continuous upward trend.

Within these 5 minutes, the main fund trading of ‘Jingda Investment’ was within the trend.

Gu Chijiang stared closely at the changes in market volume of the three stocks without making any moves or issuing any trading orders.

9:37, 9:42, 9:48...

When the time reached 10 o'clock, the net inflow of Jincheng Fenjiu's large orders exceeded 10 million, and the entire liquor sector also showed a net inflow of funds. Qianzhou Moutai, the core leader of the sector, finally emerged from the downturn for many days.

It was the first time this month that it had a 3% increase. At this time, Jincheng Fenjiu was leading the liquor sector, with an increase of more than 5%, becoming the top-rising stock in the sector.

In contrast, the Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao stocks at this time.

While Jincheng Fenjiu is rising sharply, they are still continuing to decline. The amount of funds flowing out continues to expand, and the overall market acceptance situation is extremely weak.

And due to the drag of these two stocks, as well as the performance of stocks such as Huaguo Baosteel, Shenhua Coal, and China Commercial Bank, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, and the ChiNext Index all made strong upward moves. Today's Jingda

The net value performance of investment funds still seriously lags behind the market and underperforms the market.

"Sell it!" Seeing that half an hour after the market opened, market funds had completely different attitudes toward Jincheng Fenjiu, which had performed well, and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao, which had performed poorly. Gu Chijiang sighed softly.

, finally issued an order to sell Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao, "It seems... market funds have already made their choice, and the liquor sector does seem to have ushered in the dawn of a 'difficulty reversal'"

.”

Hearing Gu Chijiang's words, Hao Weilai, who was standing behind him and had been silent, finally showed a smile, glanced at Team Leader Lin who had stopped making predictions, and said with a smile: "Mr. Gu's judgment

, is not wrong. Today, the amount of funds attacking the liquor sector has obviously increased a lot compared to the previous period. The volume at the bottom is severely oversold. This is a sign of stock price reversal. I estimate... it will take at most half a month. Jincheng

Fenjiu will be able to fill the big hole of decline in the previous two months."

"I hope!" Gu Chijiang nodded slightly, "Most of the funds managed by our fund are internal idle reserve funds of Pengyuan Real Estate. If by the end of the year, the net value of our fund is still half-dead, then Director Wang will not be able to do it again.

Speak for us."

"Don't worry, Mr. Gu." Hao Weilai chuckled, "In the second half of the year, the liquor sector will definitely turn around!"

While the two were talking, Team Leader Lin sighed helplessly, and could only follow Gu Chijiang's instructions and give the order to the waiting traders to reduce their holdings of Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao.

Of course, he was not in a hurry to explain, leaving traders to stick to Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group stocks.

The freed-up funds will be added to the liquor sector, which is heavy at the bottom and seems to be showing signs of reversal.

He believes that to determine the "difficulty reversal" of the liquor sector, it will take at least a week to observe, and when the net value of the fund is lower than 0.9 and the risk tolerance space is not large, it is still reasonable to invest on the right side.

Insurance.

As his order was issued, traders sold Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group's holdings in large sums.

this moment……

In the trading room of 'Yuhang Investment', Su Yu and Li Meng, who were also selling chips and suppressing the stock price of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, sensed it instantly.