The investment era of rebirth
Chapter 143 The essence of trading is probabilistic investment
"So... in your opinion, what is the right investment?" Li Meng asked.
Su Yu thought for a while and said: "There is no certain correct way to invest, because investment is inherently facing an uncertain future. What we can do is to increase the probability of investment profit, regardless of 'value investment', 'trend investment'
Investment', 'K-line technology investment'...the various schools, in fact, the essential thing they do is to try every means to increase the probability of profit from this kind of investment."
"What we can do..."
"It's just based on your own understanding and analysis, no matter what method you use, to achieve this fundamental goal."
"If you can't see through this layer and believe in any investment school, that's a bad path."
"Because only the methods and methods that suit you and conform to your own cognition can help you truly form your own trading system."
"Of course, since these genre techniques are widely circulated in the market, they are not useless."
"It's just that when it comes to these 'technical' things, there's no need to indulge too deeply."
"After all, these are just summaries of experience, and the market does not change linearly, but has no rules and no definite logic at all."
"That is to say, there is no stock god in this world, right!" Li Meng suddenly felt that his understanding of 'investing in a way' was vaguely deeper, and asked with a smile, "Everyone is actually just betting on probability.
"
"Yes!" Su Yu replied, "The essence of trading is probability."
"Just saying..."
"The same transaction probability will sometimes have different results. Of course...the decisive factor is other things that need to be paid attention to."
"Yeah!" Li Meng nodded, "In addition to judgment, risk control will also bring different outcomes."
Of course, Su Yu had mentioned before about how to control risks and how to stop profits and losses. After this period of practical operation, Li Meng had mastered some of them, so naturally he would not ask again.
The two continued chatting for a while before going to bed separately.
The next day, Wednesday, July 17th.
As soon as Su Yu arrived at the company, he received a call from his soon-to-be brother-in-law Zhang Jianbo. The other party said that after a week of preliminary contact, Ancai Paper Group had agreed to formal negotiations.
Despite the current situation of Ancai Paper, the progress of this matter was within his expectations.
But when he really saw the dawn of winning that piece of land, he was still extremely excited.
Su Yu replied to Zhang Jianbo, letting him negotiate with peace of mind, and said that as long as the other party's asking price was within 100 million, there was no need to impose too many other conditions. It was important to seize the time and win the land.
There are still more than ten days, less than half a month, before Kumho Group's internal shareholders' meeting is held.
For the time being, due to the fierce internal disputes and competing interests within Kumho Group, the entire group has not yet focused on the backdoor listing.
This is the best time for him to secretly take action and win the key chips for the subsequent game.
If the talks are not concluded during this period, when the internal disputes of Kumho Group are settled, the need to sort out interests will return to the core of 'backdoor listing', and have in-depth contact with Ancai Paper, then... he will try to seize the opportunity from the tiger's mouth again.
, which is basically impossible.
After Zhang Jianbo inspected the location and area of the land...
Although I am still not sure of Su Yu's real motives, I have to admit that it is a treasure land, but it is far away from the core urban area and does not conform to the current overall urban planning direction of Yuhang. Coupled with the current real estate market
Just like the stock market, it is also experiencing a downturn, so no one is rushing to compete for this land.
Plus this is an industrial land.
Without macroeconomic and urban planning support from the province and city, it would be difficult to convert it to commercial development.
"Okay!" After listening to Su Yu's instructions, Zhang Jianbo responded on the phone, "After our inspection and understanding, the land where Ancai Paper's factory is located must be relocated and vacated under the pressure of the Environmental Protection Bureau.
We currently have no competitors. Considering the area and market price, we can definitely win the project for RMB 100 million."
"Don't worry, I will definitely save the cost that can be saved."
"But if I can't save money, I will naturally not 'lose a big deal for a small sum' and let the cost damage the original negotiation results."
Su Yu replied with a smile: "Brother Jianbo, I feel at ease when doing things. Of course...if the other party's asking price is too high, exceeding 100 million yuan, and you really can't make concessions and can't negotiate, you can call me again."
, I’ll figure it out.”
Negotiation is a game.
Although Ancai Paper is in urgent need of funds to complete the relocation of the new site and the establishment of a new product line, and it is also facing great administrative pressure, it does not rule out that the other party will bite the price, strive for premium profits, and extend the negotiation period.
Case.
Therefore, on his side, in case of emergencies.
It is necessary to have backup plans in place.
Fortunately, he now has the maximum amount of funds that he can use, that is, withdrawing all the funds from his stock account, and he can still collect nearly 30 million, which is fully able to cope with emergencies.
"Okay!" Zhang Jianbo responded with a smile and then hung up the phone.
After Su Yu answered the phone, he immediately turned around and returned to the company's fund trading room, focusing his attention on the two market quotation interfaces where the call auction had ended and was in a brief suspension stage before 9:30.
I saw...
Due to the unsatisfactory trend of U.S. stocks last night, many of the investment sentiments that warmed up yesterday were offset, causing the three major indexes, namely the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the ChiNext Index, to open lower by almost 0.5%.
Sectors and individual stocks.
Yesterday's strong 'Electronic Information', 'Apple Industry Chain', and 'Mobile Games' concept sectors all opened in the red today. The main board's 'Liquor Concept' and 'White Home Appliances' concept sectors were slightly in the red; among them, popular concept stocks in each sector
, stocks such as Fenda Technology, Wangsu Technology, Changqu Technology, Jincheng Fenjiu, Gree Electric Appliances, Boss Electric Co., Ltd. also opened slightly higher, and the mood is relatively good.
As for Shanghai Steel Federation...
Thanks to Su Yu’s seat bonus and yesterday’s unexpected late trading trend.
Today's check attracted the attention of the vast majority of short-term funds in the entire market during the collective bidding stage. There was a certain rush for funds, and it opened almost 2 points higher.
In addition to these stocks, there are potential concept stocks in the so-called "Shanghai Free Trade Zone" newly established as "Yuhang No. 1".
Performance is not so good.
The Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao Group, which have sluggish performance, continued to open lower today despite bucking the trend yesterday, and during the call auction, even if Su Yu and Li Meng did not pressure the market, their capital trading conditions were still very low.
The obvious selling of large orders suppressed the trend, which proved that the main funds in the market, other than them, continued to be unfavorable about these two checks and insisted on cutting positions and stopping losses.
Except for Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, which performed the worst.
Companies like Lujiazui, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Pudong Jinqiao, Jinjiang Investment, etc., appear to be much duller. There is no financial attention and no obvious selling pressure. They just follow the fluctuations of the index and have no autonomy.
Su Yu took advantage of the five minutes during the short trading pause to carefully sort out the individual stocks he was paying attention to and the overall market conditions of the two cities. He smiled and said: "The volume was heavy in the past two days, and I was emotionally drained. Today I encountered a bad external market situation.
, it seems... the index has to take two steps and look back again."
"Well!" Li Meng responded and said, "There is still a lack of incremental funds in the market, and the existing funds have always been playing games, which is why whenever there is a disturbance in the external market, A-shares will not be stable, and there is a high probability of a correction.
Trend.”
Su Yu chuckled and said: "This is inevitable. After all, when the index bottoms out and the initial stage of bear-bull transition is in place, the market is originally a hazy period. Coupled with the lack of confidence you mentioned and the existing game, new entry funds are extremely limited.
The hold-up plate ahead is heavy, and you need to consume it bit by bit... and other reasons. The index turns back three times in one step, and turns back once in two steps. This is a healthy trend state, and... If at this stage, there is a continuous trend of holding high and beating high, that is
It is a sign that the index will inevitably correct. In fact, it is easy to grasp the rhythm at this stage, and the success rate of doing T will be quite high."
His voice is loud.
He said this not only to Li Meng, but also to Wang Can and several other new traders.
Li Meng smiled and nodded. He glanced at the time, which was quickly approaching 9:30, and asked, "Should we continue with yesterday's operation?"
"Yes!" Su Yu nodded, "Taking advantage of the index's correction is a good time to pressure the market and create panic."
According to the detailed position information he received from 'Jingda Investment', the other party's fund holdings in Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao are not particularly large, but the absolute market value of the holdings is not small. The total holdings of the two stocks are total.
The market value exceeds 200 million.
And based on the liquidity of Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao.
If you want to liquidate the market value of this position of 200 million, it will not take one day.
Therefore, in order to make the other party liquidate their positions as soon as possible and help them reduce the cost of holding positions to an extremely low position, if you should use the chips in your hand to continue to suppress the market, then you have to suppress them.
Moreover, on the way to suppress Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao.
Su Yu also had to use the funds in his hands to continue to raise funds for Jincheng Fenjiu, creating a situation where funds continued to be raised and the trend continued to be strong.
Only in this way can the other party believe that the liquor sector is on the way to a 'difficulty reversal'.
Only in this way can the other party continue to add the funds reduced by Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group to the heavy liquor sector, which can quickly increase the net value of the other party's fund.
then……
When 9:30 arrived, the stagnant stock prices in the two cities began to change.
Su Yu and Li Meng quickly began to repeat yesterday's operating routine, focusing on the opportunity to sell large orders, competing with each other to take over the buying orders, and smashing the market of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group.
At the same time, other traders used fund sub-accounts with small allocations of funds.
On several strong stocks that the fund holds large positions, do intraday operation exercises, follow the techniques and methods taught by Su Yu, become familiar with the market trends, and improve your own operation skills and market sense.
And during this period...
As the core concern of the two cities, Shanghai Steel Union has embarked on a continuous fundraising trend with one yang crossing the four lines.
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