The leisurely life of rebirth

Although this hunt cannot prevent the issuance of the euro in the end, if it doesn't work once, it will happen a second time. Anyway, you can't be allowed to grow stronger and threaten the status of the US dollar leader. It is really about to die! And it will be an ugly death.

The financial defeat was worse than the atomic bombing. The United States has rich experience in the previous currency wars launched in other regions, and it has been very skilled in playing it, and it has succeeded every time.

It’s really a waste of time and still make a lot of money!

One will ebb and flow, and either you will die or I will die.

At the same time, the lights were brightly lit in Cheng Shigui's office in Hong Kong. It must be the same in other financial institutions. They have been awake all night since September.

Cheng Shigui and Wu Zhihong were sitting at their desks, looking at the computer screen from time to time. They raised their wine glasses and said with a smile, "Cheers!" to celebrate their victory in lira.

The two took a sip of red wine. Cheng Shigui's slender fingers gently held the wine glass and shook it, and the wine swayed gently and regularly.

"Do you think Germany will save the UK?" Wu Zhihong said with a slight frown, "Yesterday, Germany officially announced that the discount rate would be reduced by half a percentage point, from 875% to 825%. This is Germany's first interest rate cut in five years."

"It's too late! This will only cause greater panic! Yao Yao! The foreign exchange market has taken the lead in reacting. The exchange rate of the pound has been falling all the way. The ratio of the pound to the mark has broken through the three lines of defense and reached 1 pound equal to 280 marks. [

From July, when Germany raises the discount rate and lights the fuse, Finland will be a canoe filled with firewood, and Italy will be a burning sampan. What is a burning camp? This is the law.

Recovered. Market changes are subtle. Once confidence is shaken, the general trend has been established, and the trend of exchange rate changes will be difficult to curb." Cheng Shigui said intoxicatedly, squinting his eyes.

"Besides, Germany is too overwhelmed to take care of itself, and has no conditions to save others. With the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989, many people believed that a new, unified Germany would rise and prosper rapidly.

However, the new Germany will definitely experience a period of economic constraints due to the reconstruction of the former East Germany. Germany will pay more attention to its own economic problems and will have no time to help other European countries tide over their economic difficulties. This will have an impact on the economies and currencies of other European countries.

Disastrous consequences." Cheng Shigui said. "As for the Americans stabbing in the back, he does it often. A unified and strong Europe is not in the interests of the Americans.

He will kill anyone who threatens U.S. interests without hesitation, just like Japan did two years ago."

The first country to fall in this war was Finland in Northern Europe. After Germany raised interest rates, Finns exchanged Finnish marks for German marks. In order to maintain the parity between Finnish marks and German marks, the Bank of Finland had to sell German marks and buy Finnish marks.

However, the Bank of Finland's reserves of German marks were very limited and were quickly exhausted. In September, the Bank of Finland tried its best to maintain the parity between the Finnish mark and the German mark. On September 8, the Finnish "government" was forced to announce that the Finnish mark and the German mark

Decoupled, free floating.

The British and French governments were deeply worried about the withdrawal of the Finnish mark and suggested that Germany appropriately lower interest rates to reduce the pressure on other member countries' currencies to depreciate. However, the German government believed that decoupling the Finnish mark was insignificant and rejected the suggestions of Britain and France. In September

On the 11th, Bundesbank President Schlesinger even publicly announced that Germany would never lower interest rates, which further encouraged speculators' confidence.

Among Western European countries, Italy's comprehensive national strength is significantly weaker than that of Britain, France, Germany and other countries, and the Italian lira has always been regarded as a 'soft currency'. The withdrawal of the Finnish mark has made the Italian lira particularly prominent in the international arena.

Capital decided to attack the lira, just like a lion always looking for the old, weak, sick and disabled among its prey.

Hunting always starts with the weak, and you have to pick the weak ones.

Prior to this, international capital had already been instigating the devaluation of the Italian lira and building a trap for the devaluation of the lira. There are many ways to speculate on the depreciation of the lira. The simplest is to first borrow a large amount of lira in the market and then sell it at a high level.

, suppress the exchange rate of the lira, and then buy it back to repay the loan after the lira depreciates. Then use foreign exchange options to sign a lira put option at the current higher market price, and execute the option to make a profit after the lira depreciates. In order to cooperate with the Italian lira

In July, Moody's, a well-known American rating agency, downgraded Italy's debt rating from 1 to 3. This made matters worse.

In order to maintain the exchange rate between the lira and the German mark, Italy had to repeatedly raise the lira's interest rate. On September 7th and 9th, Italy raised the bank discount rate twice in a row, from 12% to 15%. However, Italy's fragile economic law can withstand

With such a high interest rate, raising interest rates not only fails to boost people's confidence in the lira, but also raises concerns about the damage that high interest rates will do to the Italian economy. The lira continues to depreciate. On September 12, the lira fell to the level of the German mark in the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System.

The lower limit. On September 13, the European Community announced adjustments to the exchange rates of 11 currencies. The Italian lira depreciated by 35%, while the other 10 currencies appreciated by 35%, and the lira actually depreciated by 7%.

Even after depreciating by 7%, the lira is still overvalued, and speculators continue to launch fierce attacks and sell the lira crazily. Moreover, the previous depreciation of the lira by 7% allowed international capital to gain a lot, which actually increased the opportunity for international capital to continue to attack the lira.

The Bank of Italy was forced to buy a large amount of lira to maintain a stable exchange rate of the lira. After less than a week of fierce fighting, the Bank of Italy almost exhausted its foreign exchange reserves of 40 billion German marks and could no longer maintain the exchange rate of the lira. Today

I had no choice but to raise a white flag and surrender.

"On the 10th, the Wall Street Journal published an interview with German Central Bank President Schlesinger, in which he vaguely mentioned: 'The instability of the European monetary system can only be solved through the devaluation of some countries' currencies.

...'Although he did not mention which countries the 'some countries' were, this hint was enough for the financial giants who smelled the smell of blood."

Wu Zhihong said with a smile, "The Germans have abandoned the UK and lifted the protection of the pound. This is really a huge irony. When Germany invaded the UK in World War II, the British relied on the help of the Americans to win. However, when London

When faced with a currency attack launched by the United States, in order to defend the pound, the British needed asylum from the Germans!"

"There are only eternal interests between countries." Cheng Shigui said coldly. "In 1990, the United Kingdom joined the new monetary system created by Western European countries - the European Exchange Rate System. At that moment, the United Kingdom made a decisive mistake."

Regarding the mistakes he made, especially when the Maastricht Treaty was signed, it was foreseeable that the European exchange rate system would be difficult to maintain coordination due to the economic strength of each country and their respective national interests.[

Once some of the "chains" that make up the European exchange rate system become loose, financial giants like Wall Street, just like sharks that have smelled blood, will take advantage of the situation and launch an attack on these loose "chains", while other waves will

"Followers like Liuxiang Cheng Shigui will also follow the trend, making the exchange rate more volatile. Ultimately, the reliance on the trend-chasing mechanism is much greater than the market's capacity to accept them, until the entire system is destroyed.

The British economy has been in a long-term slump and is facing many difficulties. It is impossible for the UK to maintain a high interest rate policy. If it wants to stimulate its economic development, the only feasible way is to lower interest rates. But if Germany's interest rates are not lowered, the UK will unilaterally lower them.

Interest rates will weaken the pound and force the UK to exit the European exchange rate system.

Although Germany has lowered its discount rate yesterday, it is too late and the market confidence is intact.

Not to mention the mental arithmetic, Wall Street, Cheng Shigui and other speculators have been continuously expanding the size of their positions in the past few months to prepare for a sniper attack on the pound.

"This battle made Soros successful." Wu Zhihong crossed her slender legs and placed them on the desk, with a faint smile on her lips.

"Why do you want to stand under the spotlight and accept the worship of the world?" Cheng Shigui kicked him, but Wu Zhihong had already been on guard against this move and dodged it with quick eyes and hands.

"Alas! No need!" Wu Zhihong looked grateful. "If Soros was the only one competing against the UK, the British 'government' might still have a glimmer of hope. However, the participation of many speculators in the world has made the two sides of this competition very disparate.

Doomed the British 'government' to failure."

"Look! Look, the pound exchange rate has dropped to 278 marks." Wu Zhihong pointed at the computer screen and said.

"Let's add more fire and continue to sell pounds." Cheng Shigui said with a smile and gave the order.

"Looking at the stalemate on the screen, it was really brutal." Wu Zhihong looked at the computer screen with her heart pounding. Every time the numbers changed, her heartbeat would speed up and her blood pressure would rise.

Generally speaking, the devaluation of a country's currency will usually promote the country's exports, thereby causing the country's stock market to rise; while the appreciation of a country's currency will often lead to the decline of the country's stock market.

Wall Street attacked the pound in a three-dimensional and all-round way, not only buying British stocks, but also shorting stocks on the German stock market. If Soros was the only one to compete with the British, the pound might still be able to hold on, but unfortunately, he

You are never alone in your battle. Other American capitals have long wanted to take advantage of the situation. Soros' actions triggered a large number of follow-up orders, and the pound was sold off in large quantities. The battle between hedge funds and the Bank of England was fierce.

Time passes minute by second, which is a kind of torture for both parties in the stalemate. The financial market is changing rapidly, because no one dares to say that he is the winner until the last moment.

Cheng Shigui and the others were also staring at the computer screen, receiving calls from Diao Rong and the others from time to time. (To be continued...)

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