The Pentium Era - South to North

"Once credit is opened, it will be like mercury. Since the foundation for the recovery of China's real economy is still weak, a large amount of credit funds overflowed into the stock market and property market. Although the lessons of the last round of deep adjustment are still before us, the market investment enthusiasm is unstoppable. As investment demand emerges, the 'King of Land' once again shows its power, marking the end of this round of real estate adjustment."

The August issue of China's most prestigious Caijing magazine published the cover article "V-Shaped Real Estate Market", using a set of reports and comments that took up almost one-third of the magazine's space to issue a warning about the current property market. Voices.

“Because this round of real estate adjustment has been abandoned halfway, it is difficult to provide a complete risk guide for government departments, developers and investors. If the bubble accumulates further, the risk of deep adjustment in the future will still exist.

"Even the most optimistic people have realized that out of the extreme desire to 'guarantee eight' and 'maintain stability', the government will continue to maintain the existing loose credit policy, but may make partial adjustments. No one knows how the adjustments will be made. The specific timing and method will be determined, but it will definitely be after the National Day in the short term and in the first half of next year in the long term."

"Finance" magazine commented in the editor's note of this set of reports.

Tan Shuzhen closed the magazine and placed it on her desk. She placed her hand on the cold and smooth cover of the magazine. She felt that the vague fear she felt and the doubts that had troubled her night after night seemed to be verified.

Tan Shuzhen picked up the phone and called Yao Fen. Yao Fen walked in. Tan Shuzhen told her that she would immediately notify the general managers of each branch and return to Hangzhou tomorrow for a meeting the day after tomorrow.

"Dr. Tan, tomorrow is Saturday and the day after tomorrow is Sunday." Yao Fen said.

"What about Saturday and Sunday?" Tan Shuzhen asked.

Yao Fen nodded and said, I understand, Mr. Tan.

"Also, send someone to the newsstand to buy fifty copies of this issue of "Finance" magazine." Tan Shuzhen picked up the magazine on the table and handed it to Yao Fen.

On Saturday, the general managers of each branch were recalled to Hangzhou. The first thing they did after returning to Hangzhou was to go to the company and get it from Yao Fen according to what Yao Fen told her on the phone. In a "Finance" magazine, Yao Fen told them that this was requested by Director Tan. Everyone must read this group of articles on "V-shaped Real Estate Market" tonight, and it will be discussed at the meeting tomorrow.

"Please come to the meeting with your brains in mind." Yao Fen said to everyone, "These are Chairman Tan's exact words."

This requirement is nothing to Xu Wenhui, Ying Ying and Song Chunming, but it is a bit difficult for Zhang Musheng, Fan Jianguo and Lao Wan, general managers who have more folk wisdom than book wisdom. .

Their educational level is not high to begin with. Although Fan Jianguo has graduated from high school, he has not yet graduated. The little things he learned in school have already been returned to the teacher. His graduation exam was passed by the teacher who turned a blind eye. With one eye closed, copy what your deskmate did.

Needless to say, Lao Wan, Zhang Musheng used to work in the City's No. 3 Construction Company, where he worked as a laborer carrying mud buckets and gradually became the general manager. At that time, they still paid attention to "the hair is combed smoothly and the face is fragrant, just because In the era of "if you don't work, everyone calls you dirty", in the entire construction company, the most educated person was a high school graduate. In the company, he was already called a "scholar".

Although Tan Shuzhen always asked them to study more after becoming the general manager of the branch, Zhang Musheng felt that he was too old to enter college, Lao Wan said that he was too busy, and Fan Jianguo put his limited energy into To learn from countless young lesbians.

This is why Tan Shuzhen asked them to come to the meeting with their brains in mind.

Fortunately, Lao Wan has Zheng Huihong, Zhang Musheng has a daughter who is a civil servant who brings her children home on Saturdays, Fan Jianguo himself is illiterate, and his wife is a serious college graduate. All three of them devoured this set of articles. I understand the main content of the article and feel that my "brain" is already there.

The next day, everyone went to the company with their minds in mind. After sitting down in the conference room, Tan Shuzhen first let everyone speak freely and discuss this group of articles in the "Finance" magazine.

Zhang Musheng thinks this is alarmist. He said that the policy to suppress real estate has just been relaxed, and it has only been a little longer. It has just been confirmed that real estate is a pillar industry, and now the pillar industry is going to be taken away? We all build houses. No one knows what will happen if these pillars are taken away.

Fan Jianguo also said that everyone who drives knows that the brakes must be applied and not stepped on. It would be dangerous to step on the vehicle and it would be dangerous for us to wait until the authorities start to apply the brakes before dealing with it. It is too late.

Song Chunming objected to Fan Jianguo and Lao Wan's statement. He said that we should be vigilant. This wave of rising housing and land prices is indeed coming very fast and violently. Now it can no longer be slowed down by a few clicks. The market has already produced huge fluctuations. Inertia, according to the experience of macro-control in the past few years, when the above takes action, it will definitely be equally fast and fierce. Only in this way can it be effective.

Ying Ying agreed with Song Chunming. She said that some people on the Internet are now saying that the total land price in Beijing and Shanghai can already buy the United States. This situation is very similar to the situation before the Japanese real estate bubble burst.

"Bubble, bubble, bubble has been there for many years, but what is the result? Has anyone seen the bubble? Does anyone know what will happen when the bubble bursts?" Zhang Musheng said.

"I have seen it and experienced it personally." Lao Tan said, "There are also Mr. Liu and Mr. Meng Ping. They have also experienced it personally. What will happen? Four words, it is too horrible to look at, and four more words, it is unbearable to look back. , don’t think that this is child’s play, and don’t think that the bursting of the bubble is very far away. Let me tell you, Lao Zhang, the entire real estate bubble in Hainan burst at that time, just overnight.

"No one was prepared. They were caught off guard. Almost in the blink of an eye, when they opened their eyes, there were already corpses everywhere. No one could escape."

"Look, you see, this is the Weibo that Sina just opened this month. It has the Weibo of financial writer Wu Xiaobo. Let me read this passage of his to everyone."

Ying Ying looked at the computer and read to everyone:

"'I have attended several forums recently and everyone is talking about the real estate and stock markets. The speculative atmosphere is so thick that it has rarely been seen in years. The trend of wealth flowing upward, upstream, and concentrated in a few people is getting faster and faster, and it looks like the end of the world. 'That's what he said and I think we should be alarmed."

Xu Wenhui is relatively familiar with the "Caijing" magazine itself. He said that the organizer of the "Caijing" magazine, "Co-Ban", is a group of commonly known high-G kids, including the current editor-in-chief Hu Xili, who are also from the red generation. Many of the important articles in the article are not based on groundless speculation, but have already smelled some of the atmosphere above.

I think the current chaos in real estate is not invisible to the higher-ups. It is already being discussed, and the discussion may be very intense. I agree with what Lao Song said earlier. Once a decision is made, it will be implemented vigorously and resolutely, and will not be punished. Your breathing room.

Lao Tan said: "The most fearful thing is that the scene in 2008 will happen again. If we are not prepared, it will be difficult to say whether we can survive it. Last year, we were walking a tightrope, and the time it took to walk the tightrope Over time, there will always be times when we slip and fall, and now we can’t withstand the fall.”

Tan Shuzhen knew what Lao Tan meant when he said he couldn't stand the fall. If he were to fall like that in 2008, not only would their company be on the verge of death, but Zhang Chen would also be dragged into the water.

"There is a classic saying in the capital market, 'When there is a hurricane, even sows can fly.' Now the entire real estate market is already experiencing a hurricane, but we cannot be that flying pig."

Tan Shuzhen looked at everyone and continued:

"Although flying pigs can fly very high, when the wind stops, they will fall miserably. Mr. Tan is right to remind you that it has only been 2008, but many people have healed their scars and forgotten the pain." , but the wound was still scabbing, and he had forgotten the pain.

"In 2008, we were just like that flying pig. It was only by chance that when we fell down, Mr. Zhang below laid out a life-saving air mattress for us, so we didn't fall to death. But if we flew blindly again and fell, we wouldn't be able to survive." So good luck.

“Whether it’s a company or a person, running fast may not necessarily mean running longer, but those who run longer must be healthier in all aspects.

"What do you mean? What I mean is very simple, that is, we have to give ourselves a breath. No matter when the time comes, we have to give ourselves a breath, instead of relying on oxygen from the outside.

"To put it in layman's terms, that is to say, we cannot exhaust all roads by ourselves. We must leave ourselves a retreat that allows us to retreat to a safe zone and survive.

"How to do this? I think it is very simple. It is to have concentration. Everyone can say the word concentration, but it is difficult to do it. For a gambler, you can give him a good hand. How can he control himself if he doesn't stud during poker..."

Fan Jianguo laughed: "I didn't expect Mr. Tan to know about Stud."

Tan Shuzhen also laughed and said, "You think I don't watch gambling movies or Chow Yun-fat?"

Everyone in the conference room laughed, and Lao Tan said, "Zhenzhen, keep talking."

"Okay, what should we do? I've also been thinking about this issue these days." Tan Shuzhen said, "Now the entire real estate market is in chaos. Anyone who is not blind can see that it is already crazy. We To be determined, we must become a normal company amidst this chaos and madness.

"Every time there is regulation, companies will go bankrupt and close, and there will also be companies that survive. The companies that survive are, without exception, relatively normal companies, and there are no companies that go crazy. Such companies are what I said earlier. Yes, give yourself a breath and a way."

When Tan Shuzhen said this, she looked at her watch and said:

"What we have to do now is to make ourselves a normal company in this manic environment. As long as we become a normal company, no matter when the regulation comes and how strong it is, we will still be able to The hope of survival has been prepared.

"Okay, it's almost time in the morning. Let's go to Tuxiangyuan for dinner first. During the meal and lunch break, everyone will think about what is abnormal about us now and how to return us to a normal company. "

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