The Rebirth of the Financial Hegemon

Prime Minister Chavalit said in the media the day before.

Thailand has tens of billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves, Thailand's exports remain strong, and there is absolutely no basis for the Thai baht to depreciate.

In the eyes of foreign capital, all this is a threat and intimidation from foreign powers and Chinese cadres.

In the past half month, domestic capital has tried many tentative attacks in the Thai baht forward and spot markets.

Although they all retreated at the first touch, international capital still tested the bottom line of the Bank of Thailand.

As long as the Thai baht reaches 25 against the US dollar in the forward market, the Bank of Thailand will intervene.

This intervention is to take over all selling orders in the forward and spot markets.

About four percent amplitude.

This means that the Bank of Thailand's bottom line is between 24 and 25.

The purpose is to maintain selling pressure in the spot market.

It was only after international capital took turns to test that Prime Minister Chavalit made a speech.

There is no three hundred taels of silver here.

Everyone understands this.

Chavalit's speech made international capital more convinced that the Bank of Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are insufficient.

In the eyes of Robinson and other international capital, there is only one way for the Bank of Thailand to go.

Take the initiative to liberalize the fixed exchange rate of the Thai baht and implement a floating exchange rate for market liberalization.

At that time, he will be able to obtain huge returns on the short positions he established previously.

However, the plummeting Thai stock market and the sluggish real estate market made Robinson realize that the Bank of Thailand was ready to stick to the fixed exchange rate of the Thai baht.

Such is the keen sense of smell of an apex predator.

Ordinary investors in Thailand have not realized what the bleak domestic stock market and real estate industry means.

In Robinson's eyes, Thai investors have become leeks to take over the country.

A lot of baht is evaporating from the stock market every day.

The fall in real estate prices has also locked some capital into real estate.

When these funds cannot flow out, the depreciation pressure on the Thai baht can be temporarily suspended.

There is no secret in the actions of the Bank of Thailand in the eyes of people like Robinson.

After thinking for a long time.

Robinson gently stroked his bald head.

A cold smile appeared on his face.

He felt that the hunting feast should begin.

November 21, 1996.

The Global Financial Times published a piece of news.

The title is:

Crisis in Thailand.

This was the headline of the Global Financial Times that day.

The content is.

“Use a set of data to explain: from 1994 to 1996, Thailand’s exports increased from US$45.1 billion to US$55.7 billion, and imports increased from US$54.4 billion to US$73.4 billion.

The growth rate of import volume is much higher than that of export volume.

In other words, Thailand’s foreign trade deficit quickly jumped from US$9.3 billion to US$17.7 billion.

In 1996, Thailand's balance of payments deficit accounted for 10.2% of its GDP, far exceeding the international warning line of 5%.

…”

A very professional analysis pointed out the current difficulties faced by Thailand.

With all kinds of reasonable data, it’s impossible not to believe it.

Quantum Fund Headquarters.

Soros stood in front of a world map and pondered.

He knew that his "big ups and downs" explosion theory had chosen to fall on Southeast Asia, which had created the "world economic miracle" in recent years.

The Bank of Thailand chose to continue to maintain the fixed exchange rate system, and he could only choose to target Thailand.

However, things are not that simple.

As one of the world's top financiers, Soros knows very well what kind of financial crisis will result from the collapse of a country's currency.

Under the financial crisis, people's lives will not be guaranteed, and many people may not even be able to eat bread.

It is different from attacking European countries.

In European countries, people have better welfare benefits, and the gap in wealth and per capita income is not that big.

Even if those countries suffer losses, they will not really affect people's lives.

But Southeast Asia is different.

In Southeast Asia, wealth is in the hands of the powerful class.

Real civilians themselves have little wealth.

Once a crisis breaks out, those people will bear great pain for the country.

It may even cause a war.

From 1929 to 1933, the global economic crisis caused serious damage to capitalist countries.

The unemployment rate has risen sharply and social conflicts have expanded.

In order to divert various domestic conflicts, governments of various countries launched a series of foreign wars, which led to the outbreak of World War II.

It can be said that the economic crisis of 1929-1933 was the trigger of World War II.

At Soros' height, he has an unimaginable understanding of politics and economics.

So facing Southeast Asia, Soros faced a rare dilemma.

He hates war.

It was precisely because of World War II that his home was destroyed.

But the target has been chosen, and it is difficult for Soros to convince himself to retreat.

As the top person in charge of a hedge fund, his career is to help clients and himself establish positions to earn sufficient profits.

After thinking for a long time, Soros picked up the hotline and wanted to chat with Druckenmiller.

"Ring...Ring"

Stanley Druckenmiller was woken late at night.

He knew that only Soros in the world would call him at this time.

It's just that this kind of thing has never happened again since 1992. What's the big deal this time?

Druckenmiller gently raised the phone.

Soros only said one sentence: "Stanley, let's study Southeast Asia together tomorrow."

However, it was these words that kept Stanley Druckenmiller awake that night.

To be honest, sometimes Stanley can't help but admire Soros' extraordinary intuition about the market. Although judging from the few years he took over Quantum Fund, the annual growth rate has exceeded the growth rate when Soros himself was in charge of the fund.

However, Stanley often pursues Soros' investment philosophy and speculation philosophy deep in his heart.

Quantum Fund has not been involved in Southeast Asia, but Stanley Druckenmiller also has his concerns.

Because there, he once had bad luck.

Speaking of which, that was at the end of 1995.

At that time, Stanley quietly established a baht position equivalent to hundreds of millions of dollars, and then sold the baht in large quantities on the market.

However, Druckenmiller failed to succeed at the end of 1995.

As the aftermath of the Mexican financial crisis from late 1994 to 1995 has not yet healed, Thailand has also increased its vigilance, so the Bank of Thailand has been well prepared.

When Stanley just took action, he suddenly raised interest rates and won the support of several other ASEAN countries.

In eight days in November 1995, Stanley Druckenmiller finally returned without success. According to statistics, the Quantum Fund lost nearly 70 million US dollars in that attack on the Thai baht.

Druckenmiller has always been obsessed with this matter.

This time the boss is planning to "pay attention" to Southeast Asia, which is playing into Druckenmiller's plan.

Druckenmiller is clearly aware that this time, he and Soros’ Quantum Fund may become famous all over the world again.

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