The Rebirth of the Financial Hegemon

In the financial investment community, many people compare Druckenmiller to Soros.

Many people will think that Druckenmiller is the second George Soros.

Even Druckenmiller is not as good as Soros in some aspects.

Druckenmiller doesn't think so.

In his eyes, Soros is the person he respects most.

Druckenmiller himself knew that his strength was predicting trends, but that was more of an innate instinct.

Soros is different.

Soros's greatness is based on his rich accumulation of life experience, which is a kind of understanding of philosophy.

Beginning traders will think that the market is all about numbers.

As long as you have strong mathematical abilities and can find the secrets in numbers, you can prosper forever.

But at Druckenmiller's level, he still doesn't understand what a transaction is.

Psychology and philosophy are the most fundamental things.

Even economic theoretical analysis and general trend judgment must be ranked behind these two.

Therefore, when Soros said that he understood something, Druckenmiller also roughly understood what he had gone wrong.

“Stanley, a few months ago we analyzed that the Thai baht would depreciate, and I still think so.

But we failed.

It is not that our analysis is wrong, but that we have fallen into a misunderstanding of thinking.

Because we believe that the Thai baht will depreciate, when we see the Thai baht's elastic band being broken, we take it for granted that the Thai baht has lost ground.

Then we struck out in haste.

One wrong move, every step is wrong.

So far, everything has been lost.

We, and everyone else, are being led around without knowing anything. "

“You mean Boulder Capital?”

"no no,

Not Boulder Capital.

Putting the responsibility on others is the act of a coward.

Stanley, we are humans not gods.

We have been too successful in recent years, and we have lost our respect for the market.

We fail because we are not prepared enough.

There is a saying in "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu that soldiers are important matters of the country, the place of life and death, and the way of survival. They must be observed.

However, we have forgotten this during the long period of smooth sailing.

What would you have done if it were you ten years ago? "

Soros's words made Druckenmiller sweat.

What would he have done ten years ago?

It must be a step-by-step, steady approach. When there is enough profit support, the Thai baht's Achilles heel will be determined and then the final fatal blow will be made.

If the attack fails, there will be an orderly retreat.

But now.

When there is not enough preparation, they attack hastily. After failure, they run away like deserters.

It is always difficult for people to detect the mistakes they have made.

After being reminded by Soros, Druckenmiller finally realized why he couldn't figure out why he failed.

Druckenmiller bowed to Soros sincerely.

"Thank you, George!"

A smile appeared on Soros's old face, he patted Druckenmiller on the shoulder and said.

"Stanley, you are my best partner. I am very happy that you can realize this now. There is a saying in China that it is never too late to make up for the situation. So, you don't have to blame yourself."

"I see!"

"..."

...

In financial markets, there is always some logic that is like an afterthought.

Good news, the rise is reasonable.

If it is good to fall, it means that the good news has been realized and turned into a bad thing.

Vice versa, the same is true.

The speeches of Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke revealed that the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates to release US dollar liquidity.

In this expectation, the dollar ended its upward momentum and turned downward.

The reason is very simple.

Cutting interest rates releases US dollar liquidity, and there will be more US dollars circulating in the market.

As supply increases, prices will naturally fall.

This explanation from major economists and professors around the world is very consistent with the logical relationship in economics.

But here's the interesting thing.

The Fed did indeed implement the interest rate cut decision as revealed by the two big figures.

12:00 Eastern Time, 24:00 Hong Kong Time.

The Federal Reserve announced the final results as scheduled.

Starting from January 7, local time, the federal funds rate will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points.

The Fed stated in a statement that after this interest rate cut, monetary policy will remain loose, and the actual interest rate path will depend on the economic outlook and data. The Fed's judgment on the pace of interest rate cuts is still "gradual."

In addition, the Federal Reserve expects that interest rates may be lowered to 1.075% by the end of 1997. Calculated at a pace of 25 basis points each time, this means that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates four times this year.

Logically speaking, the Fed may enter an interest rate cutting cycle, which is negative for the US dollar.

That night, our Hong Kong station broadcast the views of some well-known international investment companies on the future trend of the US dollar.

Jason Carwell, a well-known analyst in the investment department of JPMorgan Chase, said.

This interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve means that the federal interest rate has officially entered an interest rate reduction cycle. In the next 12 months, it is expected that more than 100 billion US dollars will flow from banks to the market.

Therefore, in the future, the U.S. dollar will most likely end its rise and enter a downward trend, and it is not ruled out that it will continue to break through the price of $75.

said a spokesman for Goldman Sachs' investment analysis department.

When the federal interest rate enters a rate cut cycle, the dollar will inevitably follow the downward trend in interest rates.

...

Many well-known investment departments have expressed their views on the future of the US dollar.

One o'clock in the morning Hong Kong time.

Within an hour of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global markets suddenly rioted.

As the major investment banks speculated, the U.S. dollar suddenly plunged sharply.

In just half an hour, the drop reached 1%.

Affected by the weakening of the US dollar.

Gold, silver, crude oil and even copper prices, which have been weak in recent years, have all seen sharp gains.

Silver had the best trend, with an increase of as much as 3.5% within half an hour.

The Dow Jones Index and the Nasdaq Index also followed the opposite trend of the US dollar.

After one o'clock in the morning, there was a fierce upward trend.

Currency markets also had mixed reactions.

The British pound, the Japanese yen, and the two major currencies rose almost simultaneously.

The Thai baht, which has surged recently, is also on the rise again.

During the session, the increase reached 22.788.

Singapore.

Jushi Capital Trading Department.

Liu Qiang was talking on the phone, nodding and answering from time to time.

"Yes, boss, I understand...Yes, okay. Then you can go to bed early!"

After hanging up the phone, Liu Qiang's eyes flashed with a faint light.

"Pa bang bang..."

Liu Qiang clapped his hands.

"Brothers, cheer me up. The boss just told me that he has placed the year-end bonus at your feet. If you can get it before the year, you will get a year-end bonus of one million for each person."

"Oh ho..."

Money always brings unlimited excitement.

Stimulated by the million-dollar year-end bonus, all traders howled like wolves.

"Show off your masturbation hand speed!"

"..."

At three o'clock in the morning, the US dollar, which had experienced a rapid decline, suddenly changed its trend, and the price suddenly counterattacked under the huge buying orders.

Five minutes later.

The U.S. dollar trend chart has formed a ‘V’ shape.

Almost synchronized.

Crude oil, gold, London copper, and silver all suddenly plunged sharply.

Six o'clock in the morning.

International markets close.

The Dow Jones and Nasdaq rose 2%.

The U.S. dollar index rose one percent.

Crude oil, gold, etc., saw the largest declines of nearly 5%.

The Japanese yen fell 0.8 percent.

The Thai baht also suffered its biggest decline in recent trading days.

Closing price.

23.338.

The strength of the U.S. dollar has shocked the world.