Time Travel: 2014

Artificial intelligence will basically be a dirty word in the next few years.

However, in 2014, artificial intelligence represents a possibility for the future.

Artificial intelligence is actually a very broad topic!

It is precisely because of the broad scope of artificial intelligence that Lin Hui made this direction his first choice.

Taking artificial intelligence as the entry point, it can be easily extended to other directions in the future.

Lin Hui believes in the potential of artificial intelligence in the next 10 to 15 years.

Of course, the potential is only 10 to 15 years.

As for matters in the distant future, Lin Hui is not very optimistic.

In fact, judging from the artificial intelligence situation in the previous life in 2021.

It already gives people a feeling that the sun is declining.

Artificial intelligence has become a very vulgar science.

Far from the moment when the concept of artificial intelligence first became popular, it gives people the feeling of turning stone into gold.

Lin Hui is not optimistic about the potential of artificial intelligence in 15 years, and it is not entirely a psychological reason.

To a large extent, it is also because of artificial intelligence itself.

In terms of the development of artificial intelligence in previous generations.

In the previous life, probably after 2010, the popularity of artificial intelligence continued to ferment.

In 2016, the popularity of artificial intelligence was completely detonated.

In the following few years, basically all major scientific research institutions swarmed into the field of artificial intelligence.

During this time, technological achievements seemed to be pouring out like crazy.

But Lin Hui feels that the crazy emergence of these scientific and technological achievements is just the accumulation of quantitative changes.

There was no qualitative change.

Why do you say this way?

Research progress in artificial intelligence in previous lives seems to have achieved a lot.

But most of these research results belong to weak artificial intelligence.

The most typical weak artificial intelligence is Siri.

The conversation you have with it is actually the programmer designing a corresponding set of processes behind the scenes.

Then a set of responses are added based on speech recognition, making everyone think it can understand what you are saying.

In fact, Siri just goes through the process.

If there is weak artificial intelligence, there will naturally be strong artificial intelligence!

The term "strong artificial intelligence" was originally coined by John Rogers Searle for computers and other information-processing machines, and is defined as:

"The strong artificial intelligence perspective holds that computers are not just a tool used to study human thinking; on the contrary, as long as they run appropriate programs, the computer itself is thinking."

The biggest difference between strong artificial intelligence and weak artificial intelligence is whether it can have thinking ability that does not rely on humans.

More than that, there are also some conceptual differences involved.

For example, the weak artificial intelligence view holds that it is impossible to create intelligent machines that can "really" reason and solve problems.

Judging from the development of artificial intelligence in previous generations, the weak artificial intelligence faction seems to have won.

Strong artificial intelligence has failed miserably.

In the past life, in the eyes of many people, the progress of artificial intelligence has already advanced by leaps and bounds, but in fact this is not the case.

Such as image recognition, image recognition, language analysis, board games, etc.

These seemingly high-end and classy artificial intelligences are actually in a very primitive stage of weak artificial intelligence.

These machines just "look" intelligent, but they don't really have intelligence, and they don't have autonomous consciousness.

The reason why these things are primitive is because every move of these artificial intelligences is what the programmer predicts.

Some people may say, isn’t it correct that every move of artificial intelligence is in the situation predicted by the programmer?

If artificial intelligence produces something unexpected by its designers, wouldn't it mean that artificial intelligence is out of control?

That does make sense.

But think about it from another perspective, what is the original intention of people designing artificial intelligence?

Do people want artificial intelligence to do better in games such as language analysis and board games?

Even if artificial intelligence is excellent in these aspects, it only means that these artificial intelligences are more adaptable to the rules.

What humans expect is that artificial intelligence can break the rules.

Only by breaking the rules can artificial intelligence help basic science.

It sounds a bit ridiculous.

But this is the case, and research on strong artificial intelligence has always been aimed at this.

For example, in 2009, Professor Hod Lipson of Cornell University and his doctoral student Michael Schmidt developed the Eureqa computer program. As long as some data are given, the computer program can deduce the Newtonian mechanics that Newton spent many years of research in just dozens of hours of calculation. formula.

This is equivalent to rediscovering Newton's mechanical formulas by yourself in just a few dozen hours.

But this kind of research only goes as far as Newton's formula.

It's understandable why researchers are working on this.

Basic science is what determines the true upper limit of human technology.

If artificial intelligence does not contribute to basic scientific research.

Now it seems to be a waste of resources.

Probably similar to reskinned cyberpunk?

Even if the concept is hyped up, it is essentially just false prosperity.

When all fields are covered by weak artificial intelligence.

Then artificial intelligence will probably come to an end.

Sometimes, Lin Hui even feels that when it comes to artificial intelligence, it seems like the result of a crooked technological tree.

The arrival of deep learning has opened the door to artificial intelligence.

But after opening this door, the direct consequences are:

Machines are getting smarter and smarter, and the role of humans is declining.

Some algorithm engineers have even become machine nannies.

It’s hard to describe in one word.

This is not to say that artificial intelligence has no development prospects.

However, Lin Hui estimates that it can only be used for 10 to 15 years.

The potential of weak artificial intelligence has been fully exploited, and the dividends of artificial intelligence are estimated to have come to an end.

As for Lin Hui deliberately guiding the development of strong artificial intelligence?

Lin Hui is not that brave.

The development of artificial intelligence has not only technical difficulties!

There are also many obstacles in society:

Many media predict that weak artificial intelligence will replace many industries such as supermarket clerks, general clerks, taxi drivers, toll station operators and cashiers, marketers, customer service personnel, etc.

This caused panic among these people.

Every step forward in artificial intelligence will face huge social controversy.

The development of weak artificial intelligence in previous lives faced obstacles at all levels.

Not to mention what obstacles strong artificial intelligence will face.

After all, strong artificial intelligence is disruptive in a sense.

Lin Hui is not that brave.

Lin Hui, on the other hand, is not that noble.

Just weak artificial intelligence is enough for Lin Hui to eat.

The scale of core industries exceeds 1 trillion yuan, with spin-off benefits exceeding 10 trillion yuan.

What is the concept of ancillary benefits of 10 trillion?

Not to mention it was enough for Lin Hui to eat alone.

Even if you want to start a huge business empire, it won't be a big problem.

This is just domestic.

In short, everything is promising.

But these are things for the future.

As for what will happen in ten or twenty years, Lin Hui can't say, and it's hard to say.

It would be great if Lin Hui could accept the news about that time and space in his previous life in real time.

But that might be another story.