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The valuation of a business is difficult to calculate because there are many ways to calculate it.

Capital investment in a company depends on the rate of return, and when a company has begun to make profits, it can be seen how much dividends will be paid after the investment.

Take Apple as an example, with a quarterly profit of 3 billion US dollars, which is 12 billion US dollars a year. Then, 100% of the shares can get a dividend of 12 billion US dollars every year. In this case, the valuation range is between $60 billion and $120 billion.

The reason for such a large gap is that investors have different requirements for the return on investment.

Some investors think that an annual rate of return of 10% is enough, so he will recognize the valuation of 120 billion US dollars, because he buys shares according to the valuation of 120 billion US dollars, no matter how much he invests, the annual dividends can be paid. If it reaches 10% of the investment amount, it will be able to recover the capital only by dividends in ten years, and his principal is still there.

And some investors believe that the return on investment should reach 20%. Under such circumstances, they think that Apple's valuation is only 60 billion US dollars. Because if he invests in Apple according to this amount, the annual dividend will be 20% of his investment amount. The capital can be recovered in five years, and the principal is always there.

But this method is only the most basic method, and factors such as Apple's listing and profitability improvement need to be considered.

Investors during the period of corporate financing start with a 10% rate of return requirement, but for ordinary shareholders, their requirement for a rate of return on investment only needs to be higher than the bank's interest rate.

And this lower demand for return on investment allows companies to obtain a market value that is much higher than the valuation represented by their profitability after listing.

Of course, another reason is that stockholders are like real estate speculators. What they want is not the rent after buying the house, which is equivalent to the profit dividend of the company. What they want is the future value of the house, and they will sell it after the value is high.

It is believed that Apple's future market value can reach 500 billion US dollars, so as long as Apple's market value is less than 5,000 US dollars, some people will be willing to buy Apple's stock and wait for the day when the value appreciates to sell.

And this is also the reason why Wen Ming dared to reveal Apple's valuation of 150 billion US dollars. According to the 20% return rate, it is only worth 120 billion US dollars, but I will definitely be more valuable in the future, so it will only increase by 30 billion when it is not listed. The valuation in US dollars is already very benevolent.

Of course, the main reason is that the quotation is higher again. In the financing market, even if someone thinks that you will be more valuable in the future, they will not invest because they do not have so much money to invest.

(ps: I didn’t want to explain this at first, because I don’t understand it. But some bosses think that Apple’s current valuation of 150 billion US dollars is too high. And Tesla will also have a high valuation, so explain that I understand Some of the reasons for the increase in valuation and market value, please professionals do not spray.)

"So, Mr. Moritz, how much do you think Tesla can be valued now?"

Moritz frowned. Before the vehicle test was over, Wen Ming dragged him away. His idea is actually the same. After reading the three main factors: speed, cruising range, and charging time, other aspects are actually irrelevant.

Not to mention the addition of Apple, even the former Tesla can do a good job in other aspects.

"I don't think I can decide Tesla's valuation right now, so I need to go back to the company."

Even as a boss, he can't decide such a big thing with a slap on his head, unless he also has the ability to "daydream" as confidence like Wen Ming.

Wen Ming laughed and said: "Then thank Mr. Moritz for coming, I hope that even if we can't reach a cooperation,

It can also solve the matter of that factory perfectly. "

After being courteous, Wen Ming did not invite Moritz to dinner, nor did Moritz invite Wen Ming to dinner. Compared to win over feelings through eating, it is most important to figure out Tesla's true valuation now, because as long as Tesla releases that new car to the outside world, it will be difficult for even Sequoia Capital to catch up with it. Wen Ming's car is gone.

Moritz, who returned to Sequoia Capital, immediately held a high-level meeting, and then said everything he saw and said.

Not to mention the shock of the participants, the chief analyst was very professional and started to analyze with his team after being shocked.

"At present, the global market demand for pure electric sports cars should only be about 100,000 units per year. However, we need to consider the increase in demand for Tesla's new cars in this market."

Market demand is not fixed. Some companies formulate production and sales strategies because of market demand, while some companies can change market demand through their own products. Whether it is Apple or Tesla, they are, or will soon be, such companies.

"Apple's industrial design concept is very powerful, and the root of this design concept lies in Wen Ming. So even if Wen Ming's acquisition of Tesla is not Apple's acquisition of Tesla, it will have no effect on the improvement of Tesla's industrial design. The difference, coupled with Wen Ming's technical level in software and digital hardware, it is completely foreseeable that Tesla's central control system, model appearance, and even its lights will become the top level in the industry."

Buying a car is not only based on performance, but also on appearance. Even if it can run into a 3-second supercar, not many people will buy it if it is too ugly.

The chief analyst concluded: "Combined with Tesla's price advantage, we believe that Tesla's annual sales can increase to 150,000. This is only in this year's data. With the increase in Tesla's sales, this aspect The market will gradually increase.”

"The most important thing is that Tesla is a pure electric vehicle, which can pass the new energy subsidies in many countries, including the United States and other Western countries, as well as China, the largest auto market in the future. And this kind of subsidy can affect many people. Choices when buying a car."

It is impossible for investment banks not to understand the policies of various countries, otherwise the companies they invest in are not allowed by the policies, and it would be a big loss.

Or, rushing in when a country starts to regulate a certain industry, and they don't know the direction of regulation, is almost tantamount to courting death.

A discussion began in the conference room, but after the discussion, no one denied the lead analyst's report.

"So, what do you think Tesla is worth today?" Moritz asked.

The chief analyst replied: "Considering that Tesla's current supply capacity is seriously insufficient, and it is impossible to manufacture 150,000 Tesla cars in a year, we believe that their profit this year can reach 2.5 billion U.S. dollars. According to this Profitability, we think their valuation can reach $12.5 billion.”

"However, considering that Tesla has sufficient cash flow and the market development within the next three years, we believe their valuation should be able to reach 20 billion U.S. dollars."

"And the key condition for us to be able to invest in Tesla is that we have mastered a car production plant."

The valuation of 20 billion US dollars surprised everyone present, not because they thought Tesla had more money than that, but because two weeks ago, Tesla was only worth 500 million US dollars, and even faced bankruptcy. risks of.

However, within two weeks of Wen Ming's acquisition of Tesla, the valuation has soared to 20 billion US dollars.

This is because Sequoia’s high rate of return requirements are replaced by some small venture capital companies, and they will directly give up investing in Tesla because of the high valuation.

Moritz asked again: "If we invest in Tesla, what is the expected rate of return when it goes public?"

The chief analyst replied: "If Tesla goes public within three years, then our return on investment will be 500% in addition to the dividend return of about 50%. That is to say, Tesla After listing, the market value can reach 100 billion U.S. dollars, becoming the second car company in the world with a market value of more than 100 billion U.S. dollars."

Even the person in charge of the No. 8 Fund, who had always wanted to invest in Tesla, was surprised and asked: "Even if their sales increase to 150,000 vehicles per year, it is impossible for them to surpass Daimler, Volkswagen, and BMW in terms of total sales." How can it be possible for a car company to surpass the market capitalization of these companies?”)!!