Wealth

Soon after the second passed, everyone’s attention was focused on the sobbing pandemic six, not six.

But obviously, no one takes this issue too seriously. What everyone cares most about now is the Iraqi side. The Americans have already clamored for Saddam and his son to leave Iraq, otherwise they will launch a military attack.

China has a lot of investment in Iraq, especially in oil, if war breaks out. Then the loss here will be very large. Therefore, all parties involved are urging the government to play a role in this issue to avoid the explosion of war.

"At least the Security Council must veto the US proposal, and they cannot send troops to Iraq under the guise of justice." A businessman who invested heavily in Iraq said worriedly.

Fan Wubing is indifferent to this issue. Anyway, he has no investment in Iraq.

Some analysts believe that once the US-Iran war breaks out, it will definitely have an impact on the Chinese economy.

When US President Bush claimed that he would use "all power" to completely defeat Saddam's regime. The New Gulf War has actually kicked off. As soon as it touches, the actions of the US military as claimed by some US media are equivalent to the beginning of the war.

Today, the process of global integration is intensifying. Although China is far away from the battlefield, it is undeniable that once a war breaks out, China's economy and China's stock market will inevitably find it difficult to survive alone.

Simply put, once the US-Iraq war broke out. Its influence will be passed on to the Chinese economy through several channels such as petroleum, foreign trade, labor engineering, finance, and investment, and will have a more or less impact on the domestic securities market.

Recently, due to the tense US-Iranian relations and the abandonment of war, international crude oil prices have risen sharply, and the increase has reached 30% in the past two months. If the United States and Iraq go to war, international crude oil may soar to more than 40 US dollars per barrel. The market outlook for basic petrochemical raw materials such as Yifeng is bullish. It is expected that plastic raw materials will also rise, and the stock price of plastic raw materials has risen against the trend recently.

Price fluctuations in the international oil market will have a considerable impact on China's national economy.

On the one hand, domestic oil accounts for about 30% of the country’s total oil consumption every year, and more than half of the imported oil comes from the Middle East. This shows that China’s dependence on Middle East oil is very high.

In comparison, Europe's dependence on Middle East oil is only about 40%.

Compared with European countries that are vociferously anti-war, the pressure on domestic oil trade is obvious.

On the other hand, the upstream and downstream products of petroleum and related products are affected by their prices. Naturally, there will be varying degrees of price fluctuations in the import and export trade. As the most sensitive area of ​​the national economy, the securities market has already responded to this in advance.

As the situation in the Gulf continues to deteriorate, most of the overseas stock markets have experienced volatility and decline. Although the Chinese stock market has not yet formally integrated with the world stock market, there is already a certain linkage phenomenon, and some oil stocks have begun to bearish.

At present, the U.S. military has an arrow on the string, and the war is imminent. The only question is how tough is the Iraqi military and how powerful is the US military? If the United States uses force against Iraq, like the 1991 Gulf War, it can end within three to five days and solve Saddam in a short period of time. With the establishment of a pro-Western Iraqi regime, the United States may use Iraq to develop the Middle East oil market, promote a surge in oil production, reduce costs and prices, and ultimately increase tax revenue through the fall of oil prices and the return of international capital to the United States. At that time, International crude oil prices will show a trend of ups and downs.

However, if the U.S.-Iraq war enters a protracted war and the war is undecided for a long time, it will cause further turmoil in the Islamic world. International crude oil prices will skyrocket to more than 40 U.S. dollars per barrel, and oil prices will continue to rise, which will lead to an increase in global production costs. , And have a serious impact on the world economy.

According to the American Enterprise Economic Research Institute. If the war caused severe damage to oil-producing countries such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, the U.S. economic growth rate this year may be only 1%. If the price of oil per barrel reaches 40 U.S. dollars and lasts for about a month, the U.S. economy will fall into recession. . The world economy will be hit hard.

At present, many people in China are most worried; once the New Gulf War starts, the US economy will inevitably rise and fall as the war situation changes. As the trend of economic globalization has become increasingly obvious, and the Chinese economy is gradually integrating into the world economy, some major events in the world will inevitably affect China.

In the so-called era of globalization, whether China's affairs can be handled well depends not only on oneself, but also with the entire world economy.

With China’s accession to…, the capital market will eventually be fully opened to the outside world. The volatility of China’s stock market will be more and more affected by the international environment, and the interaction between the domestic stock market and surrounding markets will also be significantly strengthened. Therefore, if the second Gulf War breaks out. It will also have some direct or indirect impacts on the Chinese stock market.

If the U.S.-Iraq war breaks out, China's direct interests in Iraq will be impaired, and oil, arrears and some unfinished projects will all be affected.

Under the current oil-for-food agreement, the Chinese company’s depository party contracted a lot of raccoons. With this project, the scale of the project is relatively large. You can see Chinese light industrial products and durable consumer goods everywhere in Iraq. Products, metal and mineral products, trucks, Chinese clothing, etc.

As soon as the war breaks out, the completion of these projects will become a problem. A large amount of unfulfilled project costs will be in vain, and there is no certainty that the funds for some completed projects will be recovered. Once the war is over and the Iraqi government under the control of the United States comes to power, the Iraqi market will be completely under the control and monopoly of the United States, and it will be very difficult for Chinese companies to try to enter this market again.

But some people have put forward different opinions. I think the explosion of the US-Iraq war may be a good thing for China.

First, war will exacerbate chaos in Islamic countries. Although many Islamic governments are pro-American. However, the hostility and hatred of the Islamic people in most countries towards the United States will intensify because of this war, and will cause social unrest within these countries, which in turn will lead to economic and political unrest. Secondly, the United States and Britain insisted on going their own way and ignored the opinions of EU countries, which also caused further differences between interest groups in Western countries. After the war is over, Americans and investors who expect American wealth will face even more severe terrorist actions. Under the envelope of this sense of crisis. How much money is willing to return to the US market is indeed a question.

In comparison, China's safe internal and external environment and generous investment returns are undoubtedly more attractive.

In fact, in recent years, with the continuous enhancement of China's comprehensive national strength and relatively stable domestic environment, the Chinese market has become more and more settled by international investors.

Everyone is arguing about whether or not the United States will actually fight Iraq.

Fan Wubing felt very bored after hearing this. He said frankly, "The U.S. fight against Iraq is already a solid matter. Why should we discuss this issue? Every time the U.S. starts a war, it is making money. Finally, there is another opportunity to start a war, and the battlefield is still in the oil-filled Iraq. How can the American consortiums let go of such a good thing? The people and soldiers who died are the huge profits of the big consortium. In contrast, which one is more important and how to choose? Isn’t it all at a glance? come out?"

"But the Americans did not have the authorization of the Security Council." Some people opposed Fan Wuyi's opinion.

Fan Wubing sneered, "This is a bit of a standard. The folks have long been saying that the Americans beat whoever they want to beat. I beat whoever the Russian beats me. As for us, China People, hey, I will scold whoever hit me. This is the case for folk rumors. Do Americans need to care about whether the Security Council approves what they do?"

As soon as Fan Wubing said these words, the faces of these people in the audience were all red and white. Obviously everyone has heard this sentence, but they didn't expect that someone would say it in the public.

"The information I got, the Americans are about to go to war on the twentieth, and now I am fully involved in the stock and futures markets, waiting for this war windfall!" Fan Wuyao pointed out the explosion of the war without any concealment. The date.

"What's the date today?!" Someone from the Li Scissors asked each other next to them.

Obviously, if someone else said this, or everyone would laugh, but it would be very different if it was spoken from Fan Wubing’s mouth. Although everyone still doesn’t know how Fan Wubing got the news, But what is certain is that Mr. Fan is generally very accurate. He also predicted the Great Taiwan Earthquake before~www.wuxiaspot.com~ The senior executives were also surprised. After all, the intelligence organization did not pass this kind of news, similar. It is the most difficult to predict the date of the explosion of the war. Even if everyone knows that there will be an explosion of war in the near future, it is still very difficult to be accurate to the day.

Fan Wubing, why can he judge so surely that it will be on the 20th? This is something that makes everyone feel incredible.

The new Chief No. 1 was equally surprised. I don't know if Fan Wubing is joking, or if he has a channel of news, he couldn't help but look at Fan Wubing to get a more affirmative answer.

Fan Wubing suddenly realized that everyone was looking at him, and suddenly felt something was wrong, so he prevaricates, "Well, don’t all look at me. The information I talked about was given to me by Zhou Gong, but generally Zhou Gong treats me well. It’s very respectful, and I’ve never been swayed, everyone just listened to me!"

Hearing that Fan Wubing actually said that he had dreamed of it, everyone burst into laughter and shook their heads. They all said that President Fan was brave, and he would be joking on this occasion.

It's just that some people are serious. For example, Fan Heng knows that his son, Fan Wuyi, will not talk nonsense.