Wealth
Vol 5 Chapter 59: The risk of hot money
Obviously, everyone is still not very concerned about education reform. After all, basic education has been calling for reform, and the changes in higher education are still not big. At most, there have been some changes in enrollment, but the dominant direction of the changes is for Broadening the income of colleges and universities is not annoying, at least for these college teachers, this change is gratifying.
The increase in the income of colleges and universities means that the income of college teachers can be increased accordingly, which is a good thing.
As a result, everyone in the small conference room started an equal dialogue with Fan Wuyao.
A teacher in the department saw that everyone was embarrassed to talk to the student in front of him, and then took the initiative to say, “Let me ask a question first, student Fan Wubing, why are you talking about hot money in your discussion? The concept is very important? Do you think that hot money from international speculation is the main reason that shakes the steady economic development of Southeast Asian countries?"
This question is also a question most teachers want to ask.
In recent years, under the influence of the neoliberal theory and the new macroeconomic theory advocated by ImF, the economic technocrats in these countries who are deeply influenced by mainstream economic theories firmly believe that as long as they pay attention to and maintain the stability of a country’s macroeconomic The balance between supply and aggregate demand, the adoption of a demand management policy combining fiscal and monetary policies, and the opening of the financial sector and capital markets to the outside world will surely promote the inflow of large amounts of foreign capital, including scarce funds, and drive sustained, stable and high economic growth.
Therefore, Southeast Asian countries have successively implemented reforms in the economic field, lifting the control of foreign exchange inflows and outflows, and relaxing the management of foreign direct investment, foreign credit activities, capital and currency instruments, and financial derivative products. While simplifying the original cumbersome foreign investment procedures, it has relaxed or even abolished many laws and regulations that prevent foreign investment from entering sensitive areas of the local country, which has facilitated the investment and trade of foreign multinational companies.
"The so-called hot money, generally speaking, can also be called hot money, or speculative short-term capital. It is only for the short-term speculative funds that flow quickly in the international financial market in pursuit of the highest return and the lowest risk. The speculative nature of international short-term funds Movement is mainly to evade political risks and pursue exchange rate changes. Important commodity price changes or international securities prices changes, and hot money is speculative behavior in pursuit of exchange rate changes.” Fan Wubing said to everyone after thinking about it for a while. "Although the general definition can be said, how to identify hot money and determine the amount of hot money. It is not easy. Because hot money is not static, some long-term capital can also be converted into short-term capital under certain circumstances, and short-term capital can be converted into short-term capital. Hot money, the key lies in whether the economic and financial environment will cause funds to move from investment to speculation, and from speculation to escape."
Fan Wubing glanced at the crowd. I think they are all listening carefully. It seems that in this era, everyone really does not understand this concept. Although they are also studying economic and financial issues, this kind of phenomenon has just begun. The money frenzy that has not yet reached China has not been able to attract their full attention.
"I have some money." Fan Wuyao waved his hand and said to everyone.
"Huh?" The teachers present were a little surprised, wondering what Fan Wuyao wanted to say.
Fan Wubing continued. "Japan's economic crisis back then. I also participated in it. The gains are very impressive. I entered the Japanese capital market temporarily like me. Hot money purely for the purpose of short-term arbitrage. It belongs to the category of hot money."
"Have you really experienced the Japanese economic crisis back then? How old were you then? Did you make a lot of profits?" someone immediately asked with concern.
"A lot of profit. Within a month. Through financial leverage. You can make profits more than ten times the principal amount. Very easy. I am in Shanghai Difan Investment Group. The registered capital is several billion U.S. dollars. Most of them here Funds. They are all earning land from Japan." Fan Wuyao did not answer the first two questions. Just answered the last question.
"Are you the owner of the Fan Investment Group?! That's the Fan Investment Group that is building two 33-story buildings?!" someone immediately asked. Obviously they are concerned about this international capital that quietly appeared on the beach in Shanghai.
"It's like a fake replacement." Fan Wubing replied, shrugging his shoulders. At this time. Fan Wubing can no longer maintain an excessively low profile. He needs to enter academia. Use your own influence. In order to be able to speak powerfully to the entire society.
Academia is a very sensitive place. Experts who are keen to talk loudly in front of various media. Obviously it will not be the generation willing to be lonely. As for whether they can find flowers or bricks or boiled water for their expressions. It depends on his personal style.
But on the whole, the academic world will definitely not be innocent, it can also be corroded by money, and it is the most corroded part.
Its own academic atmosphere can not only generate countless people, but also breed more academic crooks.
In countless historical periods from ancient times to the present, the use of places in academia has existed. For example, the Han Fei doctrine of Qin Shihuang's legalist has created momentum for his own expansion. The first ancestor Laozi, after the Manchu Qing entered the Pass, countless scholars preached their orthodoxy.
As for the endorsement of their own forces in the economic field, many people are willing to do it. Whether they are praised or scolded, as long as they speak their own voice, there will always be support. Then his purpose It has also been achieved that conflicts of interest can make the academic world more prosperous.
Fan Wubing didn't mind drawing some people for himself in academia, even if it wasn't very useful now, but when it was needed, this would be a useful weapon.
As for the government, Fan Wubiao believes that there are too few people who understand economics. To formulate corresponding policies, especially those on economics, basically requires relevant experts to provide advice and suggestions for them. Some students are very beneficial to themselves.
But in this way, the problem of hot money has faded, and everyone's attention has been focused on Fan Wuyi himself.
After much discussion, Fan Wubing enthusiastically invited the teachers, “If you are interested, it’s better to visit our company. By the way, let’s take a closer look at Japan before the economic crisis broke out. What about the international hot money sniper encountered?"
Of course everyone would have no objection. They are engaged in economic research. There is no harm in having this kind of opportunity to visit large companies. What's more, the person who invited himself is still a student with a mysterious origin?
In fact, many people here have studied the problem of overheating. Since Deng Gong’s southern tour last year, the Chinese economy has once again entered a high growth cycle.
The good news is that the economy is showing a trend of full recovery. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the construction in progress nationwide in 1991 was about 900 billion yuan, and by 1992 it expanded to two trillion yuan. In the first five months of this year, the country’s fixed asset investment was on the basis of the previous year. It has increased by 70%, which is an unprecedented number.
The worry is that the growth of investment is inducing a series of related effects. The national production material price index has risen by more than 40%, the financial order has also become a bit disordered, underground banks are particularly active, and the interest rate of private funds is getting higher and higher. The official interest rate is in vain. If those who have access to the bank can get money from the bank, they will be able to release usury at an interest rate of 20% or even 30% after changing hands.
It is against this background that the central government is determined to deal with the Shen Taifu incident seriously. In the opinion of the leaders, if the existence of Shen-style financing is condoned, then financial control will be impossible to talk about.
However, Fan Wuyao clearly knows that although the domestic economy is a bit overheated, due to the long-term economic downturn, the brewing demand is very strong. Only the investment entering the country under the current degree of openness cannot disturb this pool. In Sham Shui Po, the domestic capital now basically yields high returns as long as it is invested.
Therefore, the target of international hot money is still those countries in Southeast Asia that are highly open, but their own economic frameworks have not been well-established.
For them, Fan Wuyao has a mentality of watching the excitement. Whether it is in Southeast Asia or Hong Kong, Fan Wuyao doesn’t mind making a fortune there. Although Soros and others have a large scale of funds, as much as The scale is tens of billions of dollars, but if Fan Wubing concentrates his energy, dozens of Soros will not be his opponent. UU Reading www.uukanshu.com
It’s just that there are some problems. In Southeast Asian countries, Fan Wuyi can let it go. But in Hong Kong, unless it’s a fight with Soros, the central government will definitely not let his temperament make other countries difficult.
However, this kind of thing is just taking advantage of the trend. If you create a few more clones, build a few overseas leather bag companies, and hire some traders to operate it, it is not impossible. After all, it is a capital feast. It's a bit unpleasant indeed.
After getting away here, Fan Wubing left the small meeting room, where the teachers were still chatting endlessly.
"No disease—" Someone called Fan Wuyi's name again.
Fan Wubing looked back, but it was Tong Xiaoyun who was waiting for him.
The two have not seen each other for a while. This semester Tong Xiaoyun and the others have been sketching from nature, while Fan Wuyi stayed in Beijing for a long time, and there was almost no chance of getting along.
When Fan Wubing and Tong Xiaoyun saw each other, there were some different emotions in their eyes, as if sparks burst out.
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