Chong Sheng 1977Nian Cong Zhi Qing Kai Shi

Entering June, Chen Wenqin, who returned to Xiangxi for a period of vacation, came to Seoul.

At this time, "The Upper Class" had already started filming, and Nan Yi spent most of his time on the crew. He didn't intervene in the affairs of the crew, but just watched silently as a bystander, understanding the functions and work intensity of each position.

With the implementation of the heroine plan, Nan's annual investment in film and television dramas is huge. The initial unit is 100 million US dollars, and it will grow to 10 billion in the future. It is inevitable that there will be smart people who want to dig out of it. Put it in your pocket a little bit.

A lunch box, a prop, an unspoken rule for kickbacks, and a yin and yang contract, from less to more, if you don’t know what to do, let it go, and it’s normal for hundreds of millions to evaporate inexplicably in a year.

Nan Yi spent every day in the crew, chatted with Jin Huixiu in his spare time, had a meal, and as time went on, he also knew a little about the crew, it was all serious business, nothing messy.

Occasionally, Nanyi would go to the South Office to have a meeting with the staff of the South Office and other groups.

It's June, and the Thai baht side is already in a stalemate. South Korea will soon line up, and everyone who needs to be buried must be prepared. During this time, people from various teams will come to form a South Korea strategy team.

On June 19, on this day, there was another big movement in the Thai baht.

As early as last year, the IMF had predicted that Thailand was about to face a financial crisis. IMF Managing Director Michel Condeso had visited Thailand three times since July last year. The third time just a few days ago, he asked Thailand to stop implementing the baht pegged to the U.S. dollar. Exchange rate system, and proposed to provide assistance to Thailand.

But Thailand did not accept his "good intentions". Instead, the Bank of Thailand announced in a high-profile manner that Thailand still has foreign exchange reserves of up to 32 billion U.S. dollars, which is enough to defend the Thai baht.

The news spread like wildfire, and many capitals attacking the Thai baht temporarily stopped to wait and see. With their capital scale, it is difficult to shake tens of billions of dollars in the short term.

Some people wait and see, but some people feel that Thailand is playing empty tricks and bluffing. Those who think this way include the senior management of Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund.

To determine whether the Bank of Thailand is lying, it is only necessary to check the forward position of the Bank of Thailand in the foreign exchange market.

Under the free floating interest rate system, a country's central bank cannot easily intervene in currency fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, and naturally it cannot actively participate in operations in the foreign exchange futures market. Although the Thai baht is not a free-floating currency, the Bank of Thailand cannot operate directly in the forward market, but can only operate through other commercial banks.

The Bank of Thailand will not operate through exchange banks, but only through local commercial banks, and the forward contract positions of local commercial banks must be presented on the balance sheet, because commercial banks are mostly listed companies and regularly disclose financial information to the public. The responsibility of the situation can be easily investigated through open channels and supplemented by certain covert means.

This investigation, needless to say, really found out an empty city plan. Now, the bears' attack on the Thai baht is even more violent.

"No, I have money to sell Thai baht again!"

At the Bank of Thailand, the traders had just spent a few days of leisure, and held a party to celebrate keeping the baht. When each of them was thinking about taking a vacation and relaxing, the market began to fluctuate abnormally again.

"How much is the amount of funds?" the supervisor immediately asked.

The order that will be passed to the Bank of Thailand must be a single large order exceeding 100 million baht.

"1.5 billion, $60 million transaction volume."

"One billion baht, a transaction volume of 40 million U.S. dollars." A trader quickly reported the number, "Exchanged through Jia Najin Bank, and has applied for the transfer of U.S. dollars."

Most of Thailand's US dollar reserves are in Thai bank accounts, and commercial banks do not have many US dollar positions. When there is a large amount of sales, commercial banks can only turn to the Thai bank for help.

"$6,000, not too much."

The first reaction of the traders was that it was insignificant. After the defense battle some time ago, their horizons have been broadened a lot.

But before they could stop their thoughts, the phones on the table jumped up one by one. At this moment, their hearts rose again, they looked at each other, and quickly answered the phone.

"Sell baht...how much...how much?"

"1 billion baht?"

"1.5 billion baht, spot price?"

When the traders put down the phone, their hearts were cold. Everyone realized that the charge of international hot money was sounding again, but, strangely, where did their baht come from?

How could they have imagined that PY Securities has been preparing for this day for many years, and also lent a lot of Thai baht to Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund.

"How about the futures market?"

When the news reached Malakanuan's ears, his first reaction was to know whether the short side was operating in the two markets at the same time. If it was only selling in the spot market, there is a certain possibility that foreign funds were remitted out. The simultaneous emergence of two markets is undoubtedly a new round of attacks.

"The situation is not good. There was a huge sell-off just after the opening of the market. We are fighting fiercely with each other."

Malaka warmed the trader on the phone, and immediately called the Prime Minister's Office, "Mr. Chavali, I'm afraid they have seen through our plan. According to the reports from various commercial banks, there are continuous calls from the US funds, so that They report their positions in the forward market.

Moreover, the U.S. capital market has reported that hedge funds are currently selling U.S. Treasury bonds on a large scale, preparing to raise funds to attack the Thai baht again, and some funds have been sold today. "

"What...here again?"

An extremely surprised voice came from the microphone, apparently unprepared for the current situation.

"I'm afraid, it will be difficult for us to resist this time."

Malakanuan's voice was extremely bitter, and he didn't want to see the current situation, but the attack of international hot money did not depend on his will, and the fake news he released obviously did not deceive the other party.

There was silence on the other side of the microphone for a while, "What about raising interest rates? How about raising interest rates? Can it attract some capital inflows?"

In the intertemporal arbitrage operation mode, there is one called risk-free arbitrage. Simply put, it is arbitrage through the spread of interest rates in different countries. Most multinational commercial banks will use the arbitrage method, and Nanguo Bank is using it every year. This arbitrage method can reap more than $1 billion in profits.

However, this method seems to be very useful, but it needs to consider the risk of exchange rate. Once the local currency appreciates in the process of arbitrage and exceeds the profit rate of arbitrage, it is equal to a transaction loss.

The current situation of the Thai baht is obviously not suitable for risk-free arbitrage. Although Thailand has raised the interest rate to 11%, which is twice as high as that of the United States. Unable to attract dollar inflows.

Moreover, the interest rate level is mainly aimed at the liquidity of the domestic market. It is inconvenient for a country's central bank to change frequently. Unless it encounters inflation, otherwise, the economy will be in big trouble. What's more, Thailand's recent interest rate hike has dealt a heavy blow to Thailand's financial industry. If it raises interest rates again, the entire financial industry will collapse directly.

Malaganuan translated the technical terms into vernacular and explained it to Chavali. As soon as Chavali heard it, he understood that Malakanuan was tactfully refusing to raise interest rates.

Compared with political pressure from allies, Chavalit is more concerned about Thailand's economic situation, so he dismissed the idea of ​​raising interest rates, "Is there any other way?"

Malakanuan seemed to have gall in his mouth, full of bitterness. If there was a way, he would have proposed it long ago, so why would he wait until now.

"Mr. Chavalit, I have no other choice."

"Got it, I'll think about it."

Chavali's voice was calm, and he hung up the phone after speaking.

Listening to the beeping sound from the microphone, Malaganuan suddenly realized that he had overlooked a very terrible trading method-foreign exchange swap.

Foreign exchange swap is a kind of financial swap product, which means that the two parties to the transaction exchange a group of funds with each other within a certain period of time according to the pre-agreed exchange rate, interest rate and other conditions, so as to avoid risks.

Generally speaking, foreign exchange swap transactions will not be limited to the physical exchange of two currencies, but credit will be added, that is, funds will be released in the form of foreign exchange swaps, causing a false prosperity of a large influx of funds until the bubble bursts Then ask for the loan back, so that a large amount of foreign exchange will be consumed in a short time.

To put it simply, through false trade, foreign exchange swap transactions with financial institutions outside Thailand, avoiding the supervision of the Bank of Thailand and obtaining huge funds, the essence is to borrow funds from financial institutions outside Thailand and then convert them into local currency put on the market.

Thailand’s exchange rate is pegged to the exchange rate system. The exchange rate between the Thai baht and the US dollar changes very little. There is no need to think too much about foreign exchange swap hedging. However, in fact, Thai companies are very keen on swap transactions in the foreign exchange market. The reason is very simple. lower financing costs.

Thai companies borrow US dollars from foreign financial institutions through foreign exchange swap transactions and convert them into Thai baht, and then invest in high-yield industries such as the stock market and real estate. inflow regulation.

If Thailand's stock market and real estate boom continue, the scale of swap transactions will be extremely expanded. However, if there is a slowdown in earnings or sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate, foreign financial institutions will immediately call back the loan and close the transaction.

The essence of the whole transaction is a process of lending, rather than pure hedging. Therefore, it is very necessary for foreign financial institutions to end the transaction early, and generally there will be similar clauses in the contract.

According to the operating logic of the financial market, if Thailand raises interest rates again, the expected return on investment in the stock market and real estate market will be further compressed, and foreign financial institutions will aggravate the panic over credit, and will withdraw funds from Thailand at a faster speed.

"If there is a conspiracy, the currency attack launched by hedge funds is probably just a smoke screen." Mala Jianuan couldn't hide the shock in his heart, and couldn't help taking a breath of air, "No wonder the recent loss of foreign exchange reserves is so much, it's all designed Yes, it's all designed!"

Malakanuan guessed right. Indeed, everything was designed in advance. Quantum Fund bought a large number of put options as early as March, borrowed a large amount of Thai baht in the form of swaps, and sold Thai baht futures and forwards. Quantum Fund is expected to The counterparty will sell the Thai baht spot to protect the value of the derivative contract, which can create pressure for the depreciation of the Thai baht through the hands of others.

In fact, Thailand has fallen into a trap, and it is tightly covered by a network of heaven and earth, waiting to be tightened step by step and harvested slowly.

A few hours later, Chavalit's "consideration" came to fruition. Thailand's Ministry of Finance held an emergency press conference, and Minister of Finance Wilawang announced his resignation at the press conference.

As soon as the news came out, it shocked all parties in an instant. Fortunately, the news was released during the suspension of the market, otherwise it would definitely cause violent fluctuations in the market. However, everyone understands that tomorrow's market will inevitably react badly to this.

As for foreign investors, they need to consider speeding up their withdrawal from Thailand. The Minister of Finance has repeatedly made public statements to defend the Thai baht to the death.

...

Sacrifice: All animals of solid color used for sacrifices, animals used for oaths and banquets. Now it refers to giving one's life for a just cause, and it also refers to abandoning or harming the interests of the other party for the benefit of one party.