Future chat group

Everything has variables, two different development trends. Lei Hao felt that the variables were at this consultation meeting, but he did not dare to confirm it yet.

When Lin Anxi asked the next question, Lei Hao became more confident.

"Do you think the Federal Reserve can stabilize the current interest rates and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar at this interest rate meeting?" Lin Anxi said with a trace of expectation deep in his eyes.

"Yes!" Lei Hao replied almost without thinking: "Based on the current situation, capital's view of the market outlook has been fully digested by the index, the pressure to raise interest rates is appropriate, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate will at least stabilize at the current level."

"This..." Zhang Qinfeng and Lin Anxi didn't expect Lei Hao to be so sure.

Who can be completely sure about the operation of the financial system? There can't be any.

Just like this interest rate discussion, it can be roughly divided into several situations.

The first is to deny the expectation of interest rate hikes and the US dollar depreciates; the second is to reduce the pressure to raise interest rates and the US dollar depreciates slightly; the third is to maintain appropriate pressure to raise interest rates and the market operates stably; the fourth is to amplify the pressure to raise interest rates and The U.S. dollar appreciates slightly; the fifth option is to confirm interest rate hikes and the U.S. dollar appreciates.

The first and fifth situations are the least likely and will almost never happen.

Judging from the feedback received from all the information, the Fed subjectively hopes to achieve the purpose of the third scenario. In addition, no matter whether the dollar appreciates or depreciates, the U.S. economy will enter a correction period, and correction has a cost. .

The only thing that needs to be measured is what wording should be used, who should express it, and what kind of signal should be given. If it is done well, of course everyone will be happy, but if it is done poorly, market fluctuations are inevitable.

Even the 19 members of the Federal Reserve who need to vote and express opinions are still not sure how much effort they should use.

Lei Hao gave an affirmative answer. This is equivalent to saying that you will have a boy or a girl before you are pregnant. It is simply... awesome.

"It's just a personal opinion. Generally speaking, I think after the Fed's interest rate meeting, they can at least send out a signal to stabilize the market." Lei Hao also felt that he had gone too far, so he explained a little, but his attitude Still obvious.

Even according to the prompts of the first future information, Lei Hao knew that Lao Mei handled this incident very appropriately. If the situation of the second time was followed, it would be great, and the value of the US dollar package would increase.

But who caused the second situation? The variable should exist in Lei Hao himself.

Who wants some fluctuations in the U.S. economy, big or small? The answer is Lin Anxi's group... No, it should be Lin Anxi's group and all those who have made corresponding investments.

This includes Lei Hao.

Think of the change in pressure from interest rate hikes as a duel between bulls and bears. Lei Hao is part of the bulls. Opposite him are a corresponding number of shorts. Lin Anxi is also one of those who hopes that the dollar will appreciate.

"I think the pressure to raise interest rates will be released, and the Fed's willingness is not very strong." Lin Anxi pondered for a moment, then said: "First of all, from the perspective of the external market, even after excluding the factor of the appreciation of the US dollar itself, other currencies In terms of exchange rates, the depreciation of the renminbi and the depreciation of the euro..."

As Lei Hao listened to Lin Anxi's story, clues intertwined in his mind to outline an outline of economic development. The difference between this outline and the previous one was that it included the subjective initiative of most people.

In other words, the Bank of China’s opinion is that based on the current development trend, the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting will tend to depreciate the U.S. dollar. If they participate, it may actually contribute to the stability of the U.S. economy, but they prefer the appreciation of the U.S. dollar to complete it. political and economic purposes.

This is very embarrassing. If I try harder, I will do good things with bad intentions. I sit aside and watch. The depreciation of the US dollar is also a bad thing. So what should I do?

Even Lei Hao can see more things from the documents. For example, maybe the people at the Federal Reserve have also seen this trend, so they are accepting the lobbying of the bulls, and the lobbying is well-founded, and then finally The result is to stabilize the exchange rate.

There are 19 committee members, and everyone’s opinion is important. Maybe the short sellers have the upper hand now, but in the end there will at least be a balance between the long and short positions. What is your goal?

Definitely hoping that the exchange rate will rise.

It is now Thursday. Lei Hao has invested as much as 200 million in the market, and it is the principal. If you include the leverage, the trading volume and contract face value he has driven will exceed 10 billion. Not to mention the long jump, even if it is a retreat , he also needs to spend several days.

Besides, the development of the situation is that the bulls are invincible, so what else is there to consider? If you can draw in more forces, then draw in more.

"But if the pressure to raise interest rates is released, the U.S. dollar exchange rate will be affected, and capital outflows will hit the U.S. economy. Now there is a shortage of money here, or in other words, the money here is just enough. If there is less or more, it will be affected..."

After clarifying the goal, Lei Hao began to explain: "Finance is an error-correcting system. Since everyone can see things clearly, will the Federal Reserve not be clear about it? They must know it, and they must have a plan to deal with it, and I am optimistic about raising interest rates. The pressure is on, and the reason is very simple.”

"Exterior appearances are illusions and things that confuse others. The Federal Reserve, coerced by many forces and wills, will definitely release a signal to at least maintain the existing pressure to raise interest rates. In this case, it is basically a sure profit to be optimistic about the appreciation of the US dollar. "

"I think the current situation is that the probability of the dollar appreciating is higher than the probability of depreciation. The pressure to raise interest rates should increase, and it is likely to be overcorrection. In the end, the market will still be volatile, but in an upward direction."

Lei Hao finally concluded and elaborated that Zhang Qinfeng and Lin Anxi knew all the laws of data and analysis, but what these two people recognized as being weaker than Lei Hao was the profitability of the investment field.

In terms of investment profits alone, Lei Hao crushed everyone. If he didn't throw away his schoolbag, didn't talk about financial chaos theory and other topics, and only expressed his opinions from an investment perspective, he would be more easily accepted.

A self-made financial upstart, a securities investment expert who earned tens of billions of yuan in net worth in one year, is his opinion worth taking seriously? At the very least, it should definitely be included as a variable in the analysis in the investment field.

This is what Lin Anxi and Zhang Qinfeng thought. If Lei Hao talked about some theoretical things in a long way, they would not dare to believe the opinions of a junior college student. But if it was about things like market psychology and investment introduction, looking at the whole world, Lei Hao is undoubtedly the leader.

"I bet on the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. According to the investment direction, I invested 200 million U.S. dollars in the market. The principal! The leverage is 100 times. I will continue to push it higher before the interest rate meeting is over!" Lei Hao also knows very well what he can do to convince people. Wherever he is, he also concluded decisively.

When he finished saying this, Lei Hao saw Lin Anxi's eyes getting brighter and brighter as he wished.