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Chapter 527 Butterfly Effect

In the financial market, no matter what index it is, it is the median line formed by the battle between bulls and bears. Lei Hao originally wanted to retreat because he could not see any profit points.

But the market has changed, and another possible result has emerged. It can attract more forces to promote the appreciation of the U.S. dollar and maximize profits from your investment. This is something that can be done.

Looking back, no one is sure about the development of the market now. Supply and demand determine the trading volume, which affects the U.S. dollar value index. The U.S. dollar value index affects the stock market, foreign exchange market, gold price and everything else that can be affected. With a little push, the whole world will change. Something has changed.

"I can affect these things, and I hope to affect these things. The greater the market changes, the more profits it contains." Lei Hao understands these things better than anyone else.

"Now I also believe that the U.S. dollar will appreciate." Lin Anxi began to agree with Lei Hao's point of view, not the data, but trusting an investment genius' grasp of the market, but his heart was not as calm and sure as he appeared on the surface.

"Mr. Lei's point of view has merit. I also think that the Fed may have overcorrected this time." Zhang Qinfeng gave an opinion from an academic perspective: "The U.S. import and export deficit last year was as high as hundreds of billions of dollars. Due to the development of the economic situation, the decline in his total import volume is only about 60% of the decline in total export volume..."

Zhang Qinfeng began to talk, and various data came out of his mouth. But unlike Lei Hao, Dr. Zhang did not dare to determine any variable. Even if it was the probability of increase or decrease, he could only give a percentage. words.

This is one reason why economists who are full of economics rarely become financial giants. They do not have the courage of people like Lei Hao.

Lin Anxi can be regarded as the middleman between Lei Hao and Zhang Qinfeng. He belongs to political forces. China is now the second largest trading partner of the United States. The United States has a trade deficit with China of more than 200 to 300 billion U.S. dollars.

It can be said that every time the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the RMB changes, tens of millions of dollars are jumping. Chinese capital and U.S. capital have been making seemingly real and fake actions in front of each other, and both sides have huge influence on each other.

For example, Lin Anxi, a group of senior financial officials in the U.S. system, regularly make reports, make suggestions and requests to the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. They also have some influence in the U.S. financial circle. When these things are added up, it can indeed It affects decision-making, not much, but definitely.

"Should I trust Lei Hao? This is no small matter." Lin Anxi looked at Lei Hao and fell into a dilemma.

Even though Lin Anxi said something nice on the surface, in his heart he just started to change his direction. He typed up the report on behalf of the Bank of China, which had some impact on his career.

If the superiors adopt the suggestions, the influence will be even greater. The Ministry of Finance and Central Bank of a country hope and feel that the US dollar will appreciate slightly. How to regulate foreign exchange reserves and national assets? Do you want to convert certain securities or assets into U.S. dollars? Do I need to make some agreements with other financial institutions?

Hedging the risk of US dollar appreciation is another systematic operation, and if you determine this and make corresponding operations, then you must try to ensure that the situation progresses in the expected direction, which is another kind of sacrifice. .

Lei Hao is stable. The Fed has increased pressure to raise interest rates, and the US dollar has appreciated slightly. Then a series of fluctuations such as falling gold prices, flat stock markets, falling oil prices, and rising US dollar exchange rates are all added variables.

In the original time and space, the exchange rate was stable, which represented a balance of power between the long and short sides. If Lin Anxi and his group were added to the effort, the chain reaction would not be small.

Moreover, Lin Anxi didn't know that Lei Hao actually knew these things, so even if there were changes in the future, Lei Hao's withdrawal speed of only 200 million US dollars could completely crush large institutions.

Either everyone wins together, or you lose alone. The situation Lei Hao faced was so beautiful.

"It's better to have a win-win situation, otherwise, I will be hated to death by President Lin." Lei Hao thought in his heart. At this time, the stage also began to talk about some content that interested him. He and Lin Anxi and Zhang Qinfeng As a result, the communication stopped, and everyone listened to the various explanations of the consultation meeting with their own concerns.

The meeting lasted until 5:30 pm, which can be said to be very successful. Chinese-funded institutions listened to the voices of the Chinese financial community and obtained more information without these people knowing. The Chinese financial community in the United States also expressed their opinions. Asking for help, the hired scholars who were sent here also took advantage of the situation and brushed their faces.

Everyone gets what they need, and no one comes home empty-handed.

Lei Hao chose to stay in the hotel for dinner, and he was accompanied by Lin Anxi and Zhang Qinfeng. Different from the afternoon, this time the two parties had a stronger desire to communicate.

During the dinner, even a rookie like Lei Hao could see that Lin Anxi was making the final decision and repeatedly asking questions about the economic situation.

"The financial market is different from other markets. Only changes here mean profits. From the recent shrinkage in transaction volume, we can see the cautious mood of the market. If we push back, this is another kind of stability, and In other words, the accumulated risk is not big, and it actually doesn’t matter if it breaks out..."

Lei Hao also had some turmoil in his heart, which was affecting Lin Anxi's decision in other ways.

After considering the pros and cons for a long time, Lin Anxi decided to accept Lei Hao's point of view. Anyway, there are two voices in the system. One is optimistic about the increasing pressure on the US dollar to raise interest rates, and the other is the opposition. He is on either side. This is normal. This time's policy stance cannot be said to be a major decision.

Believing Lei Hao once was no big deal to Lin Anxi. He could afford a small failure.

At night, everyone goes back to their homes.

The evening in New York happens to be the morning in China. Usually, this time is the last moment for the branch office in the United States to send documents to the country.

The Bank of China has a strong political connotation. Its U.S. branch has the task of issuing reports to the domestic head office, and the domestic head office has the obligation to send data files to the central bank for reference. The central bank also has direct communication with several departments.

When Lin Anxi's report was published, it was a coincidence that Chinese institutions were evenly matched when looking at this issue. The document of the Bank of America, which was originally biased towards stability, happened to make the domestic head office tend to be optimistic about the appreciation of the US dollar. This The influence spreads out layer by layer, just enough to tip the balance slightly to one side.

"On the afternoon of the 17th, Eastern Time, the offshore exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.6103?"

"On the afternoon of the 17th, Eastern Time, the price of gold in New York was 1273.8?"

"On the afternoon of the 17th, Eastern Time, the New York crude oil futures price was 47.63?"

Returning to his residence, looking at the market conditions on the 17th as usual, Lei Hao slowly exhaled: "The value has really appreciated."

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