Future chat group

It had only been less than half a day since his fiancée Qiu Yuting arrived in the United States, but Lei Hao felt that everything was going smoothly. Who to meet and what to do, everything seemed in order, and all the clues were sorted out in his mind.

Lei Hao came to meet Frank and his son this time to extend his tentacles for LEI, but the abnormal fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate also made him aware of its role and some additional possibilities.

Moreover, after the two parties' intentions were initially finalized, Lei Hao did not even need to speak, and Frank and his son began to ask questions and give various opinions with smiles on their faces.

The popularity of non-agricultural data has passed, and the most eye-catching thing in the market now is undoubtedly the interest rate meeting. Naturally, everyone's topic cannot escape this, and this is what Lei Hao wants to discuss.

"The current conversion speed of monetary assets has indeed slowed down slightly. Our opinion is that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate discussion, it will definitely push up expectations for interest rate hikes. The value of the U.S. dollar will stabilize, and we do not rule out the possibility of further increases. Of course, the magnitude will not be large. The possibility of devaluation is not impossible.”

Frank and his son got what they wanted and began to show their strength. With their status and social circle, they had many things in their hands.

For example, if everyone is an economist and institutional consultant, and everyone knows the direction of operation of some institutions, and various data will be shared without being known to others, then Frank and his group can have a specific understanding of the entire situation. Know.

With these cognitions, scholars will give their opinions in turn, but they cannot say anything like "How much has so-and-so invested in such-and-such a field, and how much intention is expected to open a position?" This is against professional ethics.

But instead of talking about the process, you can talk about the conclusions and opinions.

"Why is it not trending toward depreciation? Given the relative depreciation of several important peripheral currencies, the Federal Reserve should not want to let the dollar appreciate at this time." Lei Hao seemed puzzled, but asked tentatively.

“You know, the U.S.’s monetary policy is not like China’s... Sorry, I don’t mean anything else, but in fact, the global pressure on the value of the U.S. dollar is much greater than that on the RMB. If the Fed cannot withstand the pressure, it will release it. This It’s a normal thing.”

Frank Jr. took up the conversation and said quite proudly: "Before today, I was not sure what the outcome of the Fed's interest rate meeting would be, but now, I can tell you clearly that it is a high probability event that expectations of interest rate hikes will be pushed up. , things have changed."

"Peripheral pressure?" Lin Anxi's face appeared in Lei Hao's mind, and he had a deeper desire to pry in his heart, but his level was neither embarrassing nor awkward, and he couldn't see too high a place, and data that was too low-level was of no use. .

Seeing the expression on Lei Hao's face, Frank and his son smiled. This is the meaning of their existence. There will not be absolute trust between institutions, but they need to gain some understanding through certain channels. Scholar circles and advisory teams It came into being.

"Isn't there little pressure to reduce expectations for interest rate hikes?" Lei Hao continued to ask.

"Of course, some people hope to raise interest rates, and some hope not to raise interest rates, but now the voice for raising interest rates is loud, and the data supports it. The Fed hopes for stability, but... there is always someone who has the upper hand." Old Frank's answer is very sly. With.

Finance is a very complicated thing. Sometimes if you make corresponding operations, the decision-making institutions may not operate according to your wishes. But the current situation is that the benefits of following the mainstream voice are greater than the risks. Those who do not follow the mainstream voice The risks outweigh the benefits.

Then there is nothing to consider. Anyway, the amplitude is not big, and the fundamentals support it, so if you increase it, you will increase it.

Lei Hao fell into thinking again. Looking at his appearance, Frank and his son felt proud of themselves.

In their opinion, Lei Hao knew these things "a little in advance", so he was "shocked" and was weighing the capital operation.

The more "shocked" Lei Hao is, the more powerful the father and son appear to be, doesn't it? Look, we can get so much information with time advance, and we can analyze this economic trend in advance.

Moreover, Frank and his son are not very worried that Lei Hao will disagree with them. They are 70% to 80% sure about the increase in interest rate expectations. The remaining 20% ​​to 30% is to maintain a state of neither rising nor falling. What's the point? worried?

"When the results come out, I should be able to get more rights." Little Frank thought happily.

"If you eat my cake, you should know my abilities." Old Frank was proud, but also thought with some pity: "If I had analyzed this trend a few days earlier, I would not have gained such a little thing from it. That’s it.”

Old Frank's pity is not unreasonable. Today is Saturday and tomorrow is Sunday. Most financial markets are resting. However, Monday and Tuesday are already the times when the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is held, and everything will be clearer.

This will cause the index to change, but the trading volume is not much. If there is enough space but no corresponding volume energy, there will not be much effect left.

Lei Hao has also seen this matter clearly, but he does not have a lot of funds. Furthermore, the index will absorb the pressure of 70% to 80% of expected interest rate hikes, and the remaining variables will be reflected, which is also a profit margin.

What others thought was a 70% to 80% probability event was directly calculated as 100% for Lei Hao. Furthermore... there was a second appreciation.

"The question is where are the variables for the second appreciation? Is it because I met President Lin and hired Frank Jr.?" Lei Hao was confused. When he came back to his senses, he saw the smiles on the faces of Frank and his son. Suddenly he felt a little weird.

"Do these two people think they have suppressed me?" Lei Hao thought in a funny way, hesitated for a moment, and then said: "In fact, LEI has invested all its funds in the direction of increasing expectations of US dollar interest rate hikes. "

Frank and his son were stunned.

"To be precise, all the funds were invested." Lei Hao continued.

Frank and his son could hardly close their jaws.

"More than 200 million US dollars. According to yesterday's trading situation, our leverage is more than 100 times." Lei Hao said again.

Suddenly, Frank and his son's cheeks turned slightly rosy. That was because of shyness.

Come on, let me analyze and analyze with you here. You are actually the same as me, and... I only determined the general direction today, but you have already laid out the plan. The difference is huge. go.

No amount of energy? People have already built positions in LEI. What they want now is the index. When the index digests the impact of the Fed meeting, the volume and energy will definitely recover again.

"If I had known earlier, I wouldn't have talked about it." Old Frank felt like he was beeping. If he had known that Lei Hao had already planned it, he would be a fool to mention the impact of the Fed's interest rate discussion. Wouldn't this be the same as setting up a stage? Would you like Lei Hao to come up and show off?