Future Super Intelligent System

The scene was silent for more than ten seconds, and the air was almost condensed, until the representative of Evergrande was the first to react, "We do have some houses in our hands, but for the entire real estate industry, it is indeed only a part. Mr. Liu won't deny it, right?"

Liu Fan nodded, "Continue."

"So once the house plummets, even if we lose the money we own, but what about more houses? First of all, we will not have as many bad debts as the United States, but we will still have a certain amount of bad debts. Secondly, The economic structure dominated by real estate has been around for so many years. Although technology is absorbing a large amount of capital, the inherent volume of real estate is there. If there is a sharp drop, can the country respond quickly to the rapid transformation of this economic institution?

The last point is the real estate interest chain. Because of the continuous rise of real estate, the rise of real estate has long been not a problem of real estate itself. A large number of related industrial chains rely on real estate to survive. Once the house plummets, unemployment will be rapid, the financial market will be turbulent, and related investment losses , and even the emergence of some social problems, we should face them and solve them, right?

We came to you today for our own sake, at least I admit it, but it is also for the stability of society. "

Liu Fan sat down, and Evergrande can give this attitude, so it is necessary to have a good talk with them, "Let me put it this way, in three points, first, the core problem of housing prices is not a sharp drop, second, Real estate reform, third, the preparation of Wood Dragon Technology."

"Why do I say that the core problem of housing prices is not plummeting? There are two reasons. On the one hand, I think the probability of housing prices plummeting in the short term is very low, because what Wood Dragon Technology is solving now is the outer core problem, but many core problems are not will change.

For example, the Chinese people bind the concept of house and home. I can be sure that after ten or twenty years, mother-in-law will still want a house. Their demand for a house has nothing to do with the house price itself.

For example, the pursuit of people to go to a higher place, I have said this sentence countless times. What I have solved is that relative fairness is not absolute fairness. The advantages of big cities are always there. We just let people have more choices. , but when conditions permit, you don’t have to worry about no one in big cities. China has a population of 1.4 billion, and Yanjing in Shanghai can only accommodate tens of millions. Those who choose to stay in big cities will definitely buy a house .

Housing prices are based on the trend of housing prices in big cities. If big cities do not plummet, small cities will be stable. Those that are not stable will fall even if there is no Wood Dragon Technology, just like Hegang.

On the other hand, haven't you noticed that housing prices have started to drop slightly recently, and people's expectations for housing prices have also begun to change, but rents have gone up! "

Everyone's expressions changed subtly. They were all bigwigs in the industry, and they understood Liu Fan's meaning immediately.

"The biggest problem with Huaxia's real estate right now is that the real estate distribution is seriously uneven!

Our houses go hand in hand with our wealth, because in the past few years, everyone has money to buy houses, so the houses are also gathered in the hands of a small number of people. Now the official data shows that our vacancy rate is 25%. The data is 30%, but this is only the vacancy rate. Everyone knows that most of the houses are rented out, and rented out is not considered vacant.

So our current real house ownership may be exaggerated to be the same as wealth, 28 points.

Among them, the largest group is retail investors. There are many real estate retail investors who have five or six or a dozen houses in their hands. They are not like you who have hundreds or thousands of houses in their hands, but they The base is large.

But will these people's houses sell? They won’t sell it, because they don’t have a reason to sell the house. People like them are not short of money, and they don’t want to invest it in other places.

Now you ask him to sell the house, but he doesn't know what to do with millions of millions.

deposit bank? They are used to enjoying house bonuses, and they don't care about the little interest from the bank at all.

But aren't they afraid of plummeting house prices? Of course they will be afraid, but they have their own judgment and bottom line.

Their judgment is the core of what I just said about buying a house. The Chinese people’s obsession with buying a house and the attractiveness of big cities still exist. At this time, they can see more clearly that there are not so many real buyers in the market. House of.

Therefore, it is not a big problem if the number of buyers is slightly smaller, because a large part of the reduced potential home buyers may not be able to afford it.

In their judgment, house prices will fall, but not sharply. As for the phenomenon of the so-called hot money starting to withdraw from real estate, they can also see it, but what they can see more is that you, developers and real estate speculators, have not yet started selling.

That's their bottom line.

As long as you don’t sell them, they will be even less afraid. If you don’t sell them, someone will put the real estate at the bottom. If you don’t sell them, there won’t be too much increase in the number of houses on the market.

For them, as long as the housing price does not fall to an exaggerated level, they will not lose money overall. What they want now is the monthly rent, and they can still receive the monthly rent, so they have no reason to sell it.

But the problem is that they hold a large number of houses in their hands, and use the behavior of your developers and real estate speculators as a weathervane to hold the houses firmly in their hands. This will lead to two extremes in housing prices at this time. , because there are too few houses in circulation on the market, housing prices will freeze.

Or, if you are not optimistic about housing prices for a long time, you can't take it anymore, collapse, and start selling. And you, as their vane, once you sell, they will really panic. As the main force, you can sell relatively rationally, but retail investors are never rational. You and I understand this truth. The selling has started, and the price will only continue to be lowered, so if there is a real plunge, it will not be because of Wood Dragon Technology, but because of the irrational behavior of these ordinary people who are hoarding houses.

At that point, the price bubble in the middle of the house price is very likely to burst in a short period of time. How fast this speed will be, I believe it will surprise everyone.

In fact, you should understand this point, but you come to me for two reasons. The first is that you hope that housing prices will continue to rise, and the second is that if this continues, you may really be unable to hold back. , your losses will be huge.

So the situation before us is, if you want to find a way to keep housing prices going up like before, you can leave now.

If you just don't want to face a crash, then let the market return to its proper rules. The way to return is to let everyone slowly hand over the houses that have been speculated.

I firmly believe that as long as things conform to the law, there will be no mistakes. This rule is not just about prices, but that houses are really for living, and each family has a reasonable number of houses.

Self-occupation, not real estate speculation.

If you have the heart to bring housing prices back to a reasonable level, and you are willing to make less money so that you don’t make such huge profits, then I will give you a suggestion, so that these people can sell these houses at a more reasonable price, so that they can be used for speculation. The house returns to the market, so that the house and demand gradually form a reasonable price.

This process may take several years, but as long as it is reasonable, all problems can be solved, and the loss of the losing party will be minimized as much as possible.

So everyone, think about it carefully, and if you are willing to talk about it, I will talk about my approach and the preparation of our Wood Dragon Technology. If you don’t want the low income brought by reasonable housing prices, the door is there, and you can do it yourself. "

Everyone looked at each other in blank dismay. They really didn't expect that Liu Fan could see it so thoroughly...