My Fintech Empire

After hearing his bullish view on the U.S. stock market, Tian Jiayi knew that the next step was to adopt a long strategy on the U.S. stock market, which was completely opposite to the bearish view of most outsiders.

After a while, Fang Hong turned to ask: "By the way, have the data come out? How much did you make in the foreign exchange market this time?"

Hearing this, Tian Jiayi nodded and replied: "It's already out. In just two months, Qunxing's net profit is about 150 billion U.S. dollars, which is about 970 billion yuan excluding exchange rate changes."

Rounding it off is one trillion. If this number is spread, it will definitely cause a sensation and shock to the outside world. However, the revenue of Qunxing Capital has always been a mystery to the outside world. Because it is not a listed company, it does not need to disclose some important data to the outside world. The outside world can only rely on speculation. .

Nowadays, many institutions are also making predictions and analysis, and there is a consensus that Qunxing Capital has won a big victory this time. Unlike the A-share market bailout last year, which invested money to lose money and make a profit, the game in the foreign exchange market this time is about gaining both fame and fortune. Bureau, made a lot of money.

Because many domestic funds were liquidated and their positions were liquidated, international short sellers also suffered heavy losses and retreated.

So many people have lost money, but the money cannot disappear out of thin air, it is just transferred to other pockets.

And players from all walks of life know that most of the money has been transferred to Qunxing's pockets. They just don't know how much they have earned, but they all firmly believe that the wealth that Qunxing has harvested must be an extremely amazing amount. Figures, some organizations predict that this number is 700 billion, which is only higher but not lower.

But at this moment, Fang Hong couldn't help but close his eyes and breathe, nodding to himself with satisfaction: "Have harvested nearly one trillion, and had a good year, not bad."

Seventy to eighty percent of the wealth that Stars Capital has harvested from the foreign exchange market in the past two months was contributed by some cheaters, moles, and opportunist accomplices. Now they hate Fang Hong to the point of gnashing their teeth. Degree.

This income from the foreign exchange market can completely cover the losses incurred in response to the call for market rescue last year, and it is more than enough. The previous 2 trillion invested does not mean that all was wasted, but the assets held have depreciated. The overall loss rate has not exceeded 20%, such as the banking sector at that time, even made some profits, and most of the funds eventually entered the Galaxy concept stocks, but the money did not flow to outsiders.

After a while, Tian Jiayi left the living room, went to get a new document, handed it to Fang Hong and said: "This is the information you asked for before about the bilateral local currency swap between the domestic rice bank and other countries' rice banks or monetary authorities. The data is as of December 2015."

Fang Hong took it and opened it to browse. It was a data list of bilateral currency swaps as of 12 minutes in 2015.

Tian Jiayi sat down in the empty seat next to him and looked at the document in his hand and said: "A total of 33 countries have signed local currency swap agreements, of which 28 countries have renewed them. Last year, 5 new countries were added, namely Suriname, Armenia, South Africa, Chile, and Tajikistan. The total swap scale of the 33 countries reached 3.3 trillion yuan."

After reading the information, Fang Hong thought about it and seemed to be talking to himself: "Is there a swap scale of 3.3 trillion? It seems that we have enough RMB in the offshore market this year to buy in large quantities, so we don't have to worry about running out of goods."

Currency swaps began in 2009. At that time, due to the uncontrolled and large-scale money printing by the Federal Reserve to rescue the market, the country should have to bear the consequences of the "subprime mortgage crisis" and became a global necessity. The yellow lotus swallowed together.

In order to get rid of this dollar dilemma, the country began to actively participate in the reconstruction of the international monetary system, which is to promote the internationalization of the RMB, and currency swaps are one of the key tasks.

In addition to promoting bilateral trade and developing regional economies, the most important role of currency swaps is to allow trade between the two countries to bypass the U.S. dollar and directly use bilateral local currencies for settlement and payment.

After bypassing the US dollar for bilateral trade, the first thing to save is the transaction cost of the local currency against the US dollar.

The simplest and most direct example is that when exchanging currency, there is an exchange rate difference between the selling price and the buying price. This is the transaction cost. No matter individuals, companies or countries need to pay this cost, it is basically impossible to avoid it.

Secondly, it can reduce the impact of the "dollar tide" on the domestic economy. When the U.S. dollar raises interest rates and flows back to the country, some countries do not have enough U.S. dollar reserves, forcing them to borrow expensive U.S. dollar foreign debts when interest rates are high. When U.S. dollars cut interest rates, they flow back to the world. At that time, the assets of some countries shrank relatively due to the depreciation of the US dollar.

When Tian Jiayi heard what Fang Hong just said, he thought for a moment and couldn't help but wonder: "You mean there is a huge correlation between them? Or do you think the currency swap is a wrong move?"

Fang Hong did not speak, but Tian Jiayi thought again and said: "The biggest benefit of currency swap is that it can get rid of the dollar dilemma, but there is also a potential risk of default. If the swap target country runs out of foreign exchange or even declares bankruptcy, and some countries have new If the person involved comes forward and refuses to admit his/her account, then it will all be wasted.”

Obviously, this kind of default risk is also a risk that has to be taken in order to promote the internationalization of the RMB. What can be done is to try to select countries with high creditworthiness for currency swaps.

At this moment, Fang Hong suddenly said in a deep voice: "The question is, can we really get rid of the dollar dilemma? In my opinion, not necessarily."

Tian Jiayi stared at Fang Hong curiously, who immediately looked at him and said: "In international games, Chi Guoguo's interests come first. For example, I am the exchange partner country, and your RMB comes to me. , but I still think the U.S. dollar is more useful internationally. The U.S. dollar can buy things that you can buy with RMB, and you can also buy things with U.S. dollars that you can’t buy with RMB.”

"Then what is the most beneficial thing for me? Of course, I convert the RMB into U.S. dollars, so I go to the market and sell all the RMB in exchange for U.S. dollars. The RMB is not even warmed up before I throw it away."

"This will lead to a consequence. The RMB will in turn be continuously squeezed, which will lead to the depreciation of the RMB. This will further encourage those countries that swap RMB to sell them and exchange them for U.S. dollars. Your exchange rate will still be unable to hold, even if you swap It took me a long time to change my loneliness."

After hearing what he said, Tian Jiayi immediately understood the logic and the meaning of his previous sentence. The trend of RMB depreciation remains unchanged, not to mention that the United States still has the card of raising interest rates.

Obviously, if the currency swap goes out, those countries will exchange their hands for US dollars, and the RMB will be run on. The RMB will carry everything for a day, and it will still not get rid of the dollar dilemma. Instead, it will have to bear the consequences of future defaults of the swap partner countries. risk.

Tian Jiayi raised his eyes and looked at Fang Hong and asked: "Then should we continue to buy RMB as planned, or should we wait for a period of time for the depreciation to be in place?"

Fang Hong shook his head: "No, just continue to buy as planned. No matter how the exchange rate goes, it will not affect the execution of the established plan. Qunxing is not a small workshop. This account must not be treated as an economic account, but as a political account." Let’s use the accounts to calculate, and if the reserve is less than 10 trillion, just keep buying and buying.”

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