New Shun 1730

Cotton in India, industry in Dashun, and consumption in Europe.

This is a whole.

Dashun chose a very strange path. The task that the bourgeoisie began in the 18th century was to create a world market. Obviously, the world market must include the Dashun internal market. But it is obvious that the Dashun bourgeoisie created a deformed and distorted international market before obtaining a unified domestic market.

This is determined by the special circumstances of Dashun, with its vast land, one-third or even two-fifths of the world's population, and long-term internal unity.

As a result, this strange situation can and can only occur in Dashun in this world.

Give an example.

The French Physiocratic School's reforms have a very high evaluation in history. In particular, the reform of grain sales broke up France's regional economy and created a unified domestic market for grain within France.

This sounds really good.

But take into account... the size of France.

Putting this sentence in the context of Dashun, it is roughly equivalent to saying: The grain in Puyang, Henan can be sold to Zhumadian!

Before this, the grain in Puyang could not leave Puyang, it had to be subject to supervision and control, and it could not be transported to Zhumadian for sale.

Countries are different. The sizes are also different.

In France, this is an earth-shattering event. It is the pioneer of France's achievement of a unified internal market and a preview before the storm of 1993.

In Dashun, it's not a big deal at all. Unless the warlords are in a state of melee after collapse, I have never heard that food from Puyang cannot be transported to Zhumadian.

The reason why grain is not sold over a thousand miles is not because feudal law stipulates that grain cannot be sold beyond a thousand miles; it is because the invisible hand of land transportation costs must be taken into account.

Therefore, under this reality, Dashun has developed a bizarre system in which "the internal market is restricted and the external market creates a deformed world market."

For Dashun, raw materials rely on overseas colonies; the market relies on deposits accumulated overseas and in Europe; and cheap labor relies on land annexation by landowners and gentry in internal areas to create waves of landless people. In history, they have accepted it for a day. They sell their labor power at the low price of two kilograms of sorghum rice.

The prerequisite for excluding Dashun and the European side was created by the blood and tears of countless Inca people in the Potosi silver mines.

Without a world currency, there would be no developed world trade and a unified world market. European gold and silver served as the world's currency, especially as a medium for trade between the East and the West - Dashun was a country born with a shortage of gold and silver.

Because if there was no gold and silver in Europe, it would be difficult for East-West trade to develop into world trade: this is not to say that Europe is as long as night if it is not created by nature. But...how to trade?

Silver is almost the only imported product that Mingshun can accept. He doesn't want other things at all. Without gold and silver, it is impossible to trade.

Of course, national wealth is not gold and silver.

However, it should be noted that the amount of gold and silver in Europe at this time was not produced by plantations and sugar cane gardens. That thing is not a particle accelerator large collider that can turn stone into gold. It can only grow sugar cane, not gold or silver.

Europe's wealth in gold and silver at this time really has little to do with Europe's handicraft industry. Because, even in the original history, until 1857, there was still a magical scene of huge European silver flowing to Asia.

Many people subconsciously feel that Europe is so rich at this time because its handicraft industry and even industry are very developed, so the world's wealth has gone to Europe. The problem is that Europe is clearly running a deficit in world trade at this time, whether it is with Dashun or India.

Many people mistakenly believe that Europe's prosperity comes from its trade surplus. This is purely a comparison of the late 19th century and the 18th century.

Not so.

It's just that there was too much gold and silver dug up before.

Gold and silver cannot be produced through the so-called "germ of capitalism". The wealth created by the germ of capitalism is a commodity in the sense of the Wealth of Nations, not wealth in the concept of mercantilism.

Indeed, the emergence of capitalism in Europe led to the development of Europe's productive forces. However, this is not the reason why there is so much gold and silver in Europe at this time - Italian woolen factories can only produce cashmere, not gold or silver.

Including that the European Agricultural Revolution can explain many problems, but it cannot explain the problems of so much silver in Europe.

During the Agricultural Revolution, I didn’t even hear that money could be grown.

In this case, there is no contradiction between the wealth of Europe and the impact of Dashun's handicrafts on Europe.

Wealthy is wealthy.

The handicraft industry is developed. The handicraft industry is developed.

The reason for the wealth is that the whole world, including Dashun and India, uses gold and silver. In particular, Dashun inherited the Ming Dynasty's currency reform and completely ceded the right to issue banknotes to foreign trade. Only European silver could buy raw silk, tea, porcelain, etc. in large quantities and cheaply.

There is so much gold and silver in Europe that history allowed Ming Dynasty to complete its currency reform and India later to complete its silver standard reform.

Being wealthy does not mean that some handicraft industries are developed.

It is also possible that three points means progress in handicrafts and agriculture, and seven points means more money.

Therefore, Europe's massive silver deposits and the extremely underdeveloped cotton textile handicraft industry have become the basis of the international order or trade system in Dashun.

As far as the cotton textile industry is concerned, Dashun, India, and Europe can be regarded as an unstable triangle. If there is a problem on any side, the entire triangle will be unstable.

Raw materials, industrial processing, and market, there are many painful factors here.

Some people say that handmade cloth can never stop machine-woven cloth.

This sentence, no matter how you look at it, is correct in the macro sense, but it may not be correct in a specific period of several decades.

Moreover, this kind of thinking can easily fall into the mechanical materialism of economic determinism.

That is: it is believed that social development is only the natural result of economic development, and the economy is regarded as the only factor that plays a role in the process of social development, denying the role of politics, thought, theory, etc. in the process of social development. Simply use the automatic action of economic factors to explain complex social phenomena and historical development processes.

Engels said: [If someone distorts it here and says that economic factors are the only decisive factors, then he is turning this proposition into meaningless, abstract, absurd nonsense], which is the same meaningless and correct nonsense as saying that someone betrayed the people in the German revolution and counter-revolution.

This kind of economic determinism is wrong and dangerous.

In the 18th century, if we look at the problems of the 18th century with this mechanical materialism, naive, wrong, and even completely vulgarized [economic determinism] of Marx's scholarship, we will naturally have extremely wrong views, and even slide into imperialism or even the most bizarre variant of the Whig view of history - the colonial aggression of Europe in history is the victory of civilization over barbarism, and the crushing of backward productivity by advanced productivity.

This can easily lead to a kind of dizzy self-righteousness, thinking that Europe's productivity and textile industry in 1750 have completely surpassed Asia. So with this vulgar mechanical materialism of economic determinism, many bizarre conclusions are drawn.

In fact, this is not the case, and it is by no means such a simple and mechanical economic determinism, which led to many problems caused by Dashun in India.

This vulgarized economic determinism, in later generations, is Illich's "What to Do", which blasts those supporters of economic determinism.

At this time, as a result of reverse training, it is the explanation of why Dashun must first establish this strange, deformed so-called world market that lacks about one-third of the world's population in order to solve Dashun's internal problems.

Historically, from John Kay's invention of the flying shuttle to the Jenny machine, to the water-powered spinning machine, to the mule machine and the cotton gin, this is a long journey of sixty or seventy years.

It was not until the emergence of the cotton gin and the mule machine that the cotton textile level in Europe had the strength to compete with Asia.

In the words of later generations, this is a latecomer advantage.

Starting from scratch, there are few people engaged in traditional cotton textile industry and little resistance.

Moreover, with warships, bayonets and cannons, they won several commercial hegemony wars at sea and relied on the colonial market to raise the cotton textile industry from scratch.

By the time the nobles and landlords in the wool textile industry system reacted, they could no longer suppress it.

Here, it can be clearly said: If there were no barriers of the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Then, the Jenny machine would not have appeared at all, let alone survived.

In Dashun, the possibility of the Jenny machine surviving is zero.

Because the yarn spun from this thing has poor fastness, it can only be used as weft but not warp, and needs to be blended with linen or wool to enhance its strength.

There is no market for this in Dashun. The more yarn you spin, the more you lose.

But in Europe, there is a market.

Because the state strongly prohibits imports, administrative orders prohibit the wearing of oriental cotton cloth, and imposes heavy taxes on oriental cotton cloth, this blended cloth, which is regarded as "complete garbage" in Asia, can survive in the European market.

And because of the strength of the British navy, the victory of naval battles, mercantilism and shipbuilding under the pressure of heavy taxes, the maritime trade of European countries is subject to navigation regulations.

This is a typical victory of commercial hegemony driving industrial development and protectionism.

Therefore, if Dashun wants to complete this step, it is impossible to stick to the old ways and imitate others.

That is, the idea that led the reform of Dashun when Liu Yu was alive: technological progress as a supplement, commercial hegemony and shipbuilding as a priority.

Until Liu Yu's death, the cotton cloth that Dashun sold well in the European market was not the so-called "industry crushing handicrafts" by steam engines, large looms and spinning machines - even if there were certain industrial factors, it was definitely not the main force of Dashun's foreign trade before Liu Yu's death.

It was the standard logic of commercial hegemony in the pre-industrial era, using shipbuilding and navy to gain commercial hegemony.

It's just that this kind of commercial hegemony and primitive accumulation was disguised by Liu Yu as [free trade], [the crushing of advanced productivity over backward productivity], and [the victory of the advanced over the backward under economic determinism] because of factors such as the silver exchange rate and labor price between Dashun and Europe.

Since economic determinism is to be criticized.

Then, obviously, in Dashun, there are only two ways to complete the transformation from the old era to the new era.

Either, strong organizational and control power can stabilize the pain of the disintegration of the old era and the collapse of the small peasant economy, and at the same time, there are extremely powerful means to prevent capital from flowing back from industry to agriculture.

This does not mean that it is wrong for capital to go to agriculture. Rather, under the conditions before reform and expansion, capital flowed to land, and the production means factor of land was far smaller than the financial speculation and hedging factor. The flow of private capital in Dashun to land will not bring about a huge increase in productivity. Because in the 18th century, Dashun's small-scale peasant economy, especially after North China carried out the agricultural revolution of two years and three crops, the yield per mu had reached the world's peak in the 18th century, and it was difficult to increase.

Therefore, in this situation, a strong visible hand is needed to control the reverse flow of capital from industry and commerce to the land. This is almost the path that East Asia must take later, including the land reform in Baodao and the distribution of capital to the land. If a tenant farmer sells his land back to the landlord, he will also be sentenced to jail.

Moreover, it is necessary to have extremely powerful organizational and control power, which in this era would scare all countries in the world to death, to suppress the pain of transformation and the pain of the collapse of the small-scale peasant economy.

Obviously Dashun couldn't do it at all.

Otherwise, we can only choose to expand externally and follow the first-mover-later model. The first-mover regions obtain raw materials and markets through external expansion, and drive industrial development through the commercial hegemony model mentioned by Lao Ma.

And it is definitely not what many people think, this bud or that bud. The development of society is only the natural result of economic development, and the economy is regarded as the only factor that plays a role in the process of social development. It denies the role of politics, ideology, theory, etc. in the process of social development. Simply use the automatic action of economic factors to explain complex social phenomena and historical development processes. I think that as long as it sprouts and economic factors take effect automatically, everything will be fine.

Not so.

To put it bluntly, Liu Yu's small reforms, from the transfer of trade centers, to the reform of the salt industry to enclosing land for cotton cultivation, and then to the abolition of canal transportation, are not at all troublesome compared to Dashun. Reform - if it really reaches the point where it is so damaging that King Hongtian and Li Chuang are everywhere, it will not be reformed at all - just this reform that is far from damaging, how many people have died? How many uprisings were suppressed? How many back-ups have been deployed?

In the final analysis, commercial hegemony is achieved by building ships, bayonets, battleships, and cannons.

Dashun's rule in India did not rely on simple things such as "advanced productivity defeats backward productivity" or "progress defeats backwardness".

To put it bluntly, when Dashun invaded India, it was stronger than Britain in terms of cotton textile industry alone, but it was only on par with India.

So this is not a question of simple, abstract, comical, contentless economic decisions.

But...a premeditated, cruel, clear, definite, bayonet and cannon-based, and even anti-human activity to destroy India's local handicraft production capacity and the old economic system.

The goal is very clear:

Destroy India's cotton export industry.

Starve 80% of India's weavers to death, or force them to pick cotton in plantations or spin yarn.

By building railways and canals, it went deep into the interior and disintegrated India's old economic system.

Relying on rice from Bangladesh and Southeast Asia, the industry in northwest India, which is suitable for cotton cultivation, was artificially simplified: planting cotton and replacing it with rice.

Through the control of daily necessities such as rice, the establishment of a robbery system for commercial capital in the single economic plantation model was completed, and India was forcibly drawn into the capitalist system of Dashun, making India, which was originally a self-sufficient small-scale peasant economy, become an economy. on the whole.

To put it simply, it is "industrial downgrade".

Through artificial means, its productivity is destroyed and the industry is degraded. From a "hometown of cotton" to a place "where cotton can only be grown and spun, but cotton must be imported."

If it were just like this, it would be stable.

But the current situation is that after Dashun spent thirty years to complete an "industrial downgrade" in India, it is preparing to do it again.

In the past thirty years, the industry was downgraded from "the entire cotton industry chain" to "raw cotton and cotton yarn".

Now, Dashun wants to go one step further. Let India be industrially downgraded again.

From "raw cotton and cotton yarn" to "only raw cotton".

It should be said that this time the industrial downgrade can finally be based on economic determinism. At least in the cotton industry, it can be regarded as the victory of the advanced over the backward and the decision of spontaneous economic evolution. Because this can be said to be the advanced steam engine driving the spindle worsted spinning machine, which defeated India's backward manual cotton rubbing.

It can be regarded as filling up the biggest loophole in the new etiquette and new order derived from the natural order advocated by Liu Yu over the years.

At the beginning, when Liu Yu was deceiving the natural order, absolute advantage, and relative advantage in Europe, Dashun could use this "free trade" disguise.

On the one hand, Dashun’s handicraft production capacity was indeed far superior to that of Europe at that time.

On the other hand, issues such as the silver exchange rate in Dashun can indeed hide Liu Yu's deception.

Although it is true that there are people in Europe who understand and have seen what is going on here, their voices were quickly drowned out by Dashun.

Coupled with the common anti-status quo and anti-reality mentality in European countries: that is, countries have serious mercantilism and under the background of controlled trade, things must be reversed. Therefore, Liu Yu's set of things was inherited and twisted by Li Han into "new etiquette, After "New Order, New World", it can be said to be very popular.

But in this twisted theory, there is a dark cloud that cannot be circumvented.

That is the Indian problem.

Is the cotton cloth of India because the cotton cloth of Dashun is of better quality and cheaper, or is it that Dashun's advancement defeated India's backwardness?

Not really.

The destruction of India's cotton cloth industry stems from Dashun's navy and strict control of trade, as well as colonial rule and tariff control over India, so that even if you have cloth in India, can you sell it?

Go to Persia, strictly check; go to West Africa, strictly check; go to Southeast Asia, prohibit; go to Europe, strictly check.

At least, from a purely economic perspective, Dashun's cotton textile industry did not achieve the so-called result of advancement defeating backwardness.

On the contrary, it was Dashun's bayonets, cannons, warships and massacres that defeated India's cotton textile industry.

So, while Dashun was shouting about the new order and the international system based on free trade in Europe, it was also carrying out tariff destruction and administrative restrictions in India.

This will always make some people in Europe think about it: Damn, what Liu Yu said seems to make sense, but why is the difference between what they do and what they say, like the difference between a black cardinal and a white knight?

Now, the second industrial downgrade of India can finally fill this gap.

At least, on the surface, Dashun completed industrial upgrading through the "natural order". "Advanced" defeated "backward", and steam engines and mule spinning machines defeated India's traditional spinning wheels.

This sounds much better and more pleasant.

Anyway, at least it is more confusing than the first industrial downgrade of India.

After all, India's first industrial downgrade, from cotton cloth to cotton yarn, was purely solved by Dashun through warships, bayonets, massacres, famines, and export bans. Dashun himself was too good at making excuses when he read the "Natural Order Sutra" and the "Advanced Sutra".