Reborn Industrial Tycoon

Chapter 372: When it’s time to cheat, cheat!

The most important thing about predicting this kind of thing is not whether it is outrageous or not, but whether it is accurate or not.

Li Weidong's prediction sounds very unreliable, but it is obviously very accurate.

The change of political parties in Japan seemed completely impossible at the time.

However, when the old man said that the Haneda faction defected and formed a new party, all the scholars present realized that the seemingly impossible rotation of political parties was really going to happen.

This political party rotation in Japan is, to put it bluntly, a struggle between factions within the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan.

In the 1980s, although there were other factions within the Liberal Democratic Party, the Takeshita faction was the dominant one. The leader of the Takeshita faction was Japan's 74th Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita, who was also the grandfather of the Japanese actress Keiko Kitagawa's husband.

After Noboru Takeshita resigned as Prime Minister, the Takeshita faction held a presidential election to select the next leader. At that time, there were two people who were most promising to be Noboru Takeshita's successor. One was Ichiro Ozawa, the Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party, and the other was Mirai.

The 84th Prime Minister of Japan, Keizo Obuchi.

Ichiro Ozawa is the youngest secretary-general in the history of the Liberal Democratic Party. During his tenure, the Liberal Democratic Party was controlled by him, and he even had the final say on who would become prime minister.

However, in the end, it was Obuchi Keizo who was elected as the chairman of the Takeshita faction. Ozawa Ichiro broke away from the Takeshita faction in anger and established the Haneda faction together with the future 80th Prime Minister of Japan, Hata Tsugumi. As a result, two members of the Liberal Democratic Party emerged.

Large factions, this also paved the way for the rotation of Japanese political parties.

The Haneda faction naturally pushed for Tsutomu Hata to be the prime minister, but the Takeshita faction still supported the original Prime Minister Miyazawa. So on the eve of the 1993 Japanese House of Representatives election, the Haneda faction cooperated with the opposition parties and voted no confidence in the Miyazawa cabinet.

, which led to the removal of the Miyazawa cabinet.

If this is just the case, the Liberal Democratic Party will not lose the power to govern. The key is that 44 members of the Haneda faction announced their withdrawal from the Liberal Democratic Party, which directly dealt a fatal blow to the Liberal Democratic Party and caused the Liberal Democratic Party to lose the power to govern.

In fact, the split of the Liberal Democratic Party was already foreshadowed when the Haneda faction was established. However, no one could have imagined that Ozawa Ichiro and Haeda Tsutomu would be so bold as to directly leave the Liberal Democratic Party and establish a new one. Even Japan's own media also

Call this incident a "coup".

The scholars present are all experts on Japan. Naturally, they know what it means for the Haneda faction to defect before the battle. Without the Haneda faction, the Liberal Democratic Party not only loses dozens of seats in the parliament, but also has dozens more opponents.

The gap between the inside and outside will be narrowed by two times by the opposition parties, and the House of Representatives election next month will be defeated.

After realizing this, those disdainful or sarcastic expressions disappeared without a trace in an instant. Professor Du Zhengliang lowered his head in shame. He had just said that there was a rotation of political parties in Japan, unless the sun changed from

Coming out of the west, the rotation of political parties has really come.

"Is there really going to be a rotation of political parties in Japan?" Professor Qian Aimin murmured to himself in disbelief.

Professor Zhao Yue made a somewhat tough argument: "Even if the Liberal Democratic Party loses the election, the scale of other political parties is too small. Except for the Liberal Democratic Party, no political party in Japan has the ability to form a cabinet. Therefore, it is still difficult to judge whether there will be a rotation of political parties."

premature!"

Li Weidong immediately responded: "Professor Zhao, don't forget that other parties can jointly govern!"

"This..." Zhao Yue was speechless. He had to admit that Li Weidong was right. The size of Japan's opposition parties made it impossible to form a cabinet alone, but if they unite, although they are still not as powerful as the Liberal Democratic Party,

But it is more than enough to form a cabinet.

In reality, after this political party rotation in Japan, an alliance of eight parties is in power.

The old man looked at Li Weidong with a responsible look. In this room, he had the deepest impression of Li Weidong's prediction ability.

Li Weidong had successfully predicted before that Japan would cut interest rates and impose a land price tax. He even got the timing right for cutting interest rates and levying a land price tax.

And today, the rotation of Japanese political parties predicted by Li Weidong has also come true!

After all, this kind of prediction is not a two-choice multiple-choice question like making a sieve and guessing the size, but an essay question that gives you a proposition for you to use.

If it happens once, it can be said to be blind, and if it happens twice, it can be said to be good luck. But if it happened three times, it must have a theoretical basis.

So the old man asked: "Comrade Xiao Li, how did you judge that there would be a split within the Liberal Democratic Party?"

The old man's name for Li Weidong changed from "Chairman Li" to "Comrade Xiao Li", which was obviously a recognition of Li Weidong.

Li Weidong immediately replied: "Leader, in fact, the split within the Liberal Democratic Party has been foreshadowed for a long time. This started with Ichiro Ozawa..."

When the political party rotation occurred in Japan in his last life, Li Weidong was in Japan. At that time, Japanese TV programs and various newspapers and periodicals also had various interpretations and analyzes of this political party rotation, including the differences between various factions within the Liberal Democratic Party.

The contradictions among politicians and the contradictions between politicians have all been exposed by the media, clearly.

Li Weidong briefly introduced the information dug up by the Japanese media at that time, and then added some hindsight analysis, which instantly gave his predictions a sufficient theoretical and factual basis.

The old man nodded repeatedly after hearing this, and then he asked: "You just mentioned that if there is a proper rotation in Japan, because a single opposition party is not enough to form a government, then there will be a situation where multiple parties jointly form a government. So what do you think is the most effective one?

Who might become Japan’s new prime minister?”

"The Haneda faction withdrew from the Liberal Democratic Party and established the New Party on its own. The purpose is to allow Haeda Tsutomu to compete for Prime Minister David. Therefore, if multiple parties jointly form a cabinet, the voice for Hata Tsutomu to become prime minister will be relatively high."

Li Weidong paused and continued, "But I think it is impossible for Hata Tsutomu to become prime minister after the July election. Firstly, I think that his new party has just been established and no systematic political opinions have been formed within the new party;

Secondly, Hata Tsutomu is a traitor to the Liberal Democratic Party. If he becomes prime minister, it will be very embarrassing for the Liberal Democratic Party. In order not to irritate the Liberal Democratic Party, a multi-party coalition will form a cabinet and Hata Tsumugi will not be allowed to serve as prime minister.

Moreover, even if a multi-party coalition forms a government, each party will only see its own agenda. When dealing with the Liberal Democratic Party, the opposition parties may work together, but once they are in power, it will be difficult to share wealth and wealth.

Every opposition party wants to gain more benefits, and they also hope that they can dominate the political power. Therefore, some overt and covert struggles are inevitable. The next Prime Minister of Japan will definitely be the product of compromise between various parties, and he will definitely not be a strong figure.

."

The leader nodded. The situation Li Weidong mentioned is not uncommon in Chinese history. When several forces compete for power, if there is a stalemate, it is very likely that a relatively weak person will be elected as the boss in the end.

For example, after the Lu Rebellion in the Han Dynasty, King Liu Xiang of Qi and Marquis Zhu Xu and Liu Zhang all made great achievements. However, the ministers finally chose Liu Heng, who had been in power for decades, as the emperor. It was clear that they felt that Liu Heng wanted strength but not strength, and wanted foundation.

It has no foundation and is easier to control.

Another example is that after the death of Huang Taiji, Dorgon and Hauge fought for the throne. The final result was that neither of them could be the emperor, and the throne fell on six-year-old Shunzhi. If Shunzhi was not a baby, the throne would definitely not be

will fall on his head.

Li Weidong continued: "Currently among Japan's opposition parties, the only party that has the ability to gain more seats in the Senate election and is relatively weak is the New Party of Japan. So I think that the leader of the New Party, Morihiro Hosokawa,

Most likely to become Japan’s new prime minister.”

Professor Qian Aimin next to him asked: "Isn't the new party just established in May last year? It has only been established for just one year. How can such a new party produce a prime minister?"

"It is because the new party is relatively new that when Hosokawa Morihiro became prime minister, it was easier for other parties to replace him."

Li Weidong smiled slightly and continued, "As I said just now, this is just an excessive prime minister, and it is the result of balancing various forces, so he cannot sit for long! Hata Zi is eyeing the position of prime minister!

In addition, don’t forget that there is the Socialist Party, the second largest party in Japan. The leader, the Liberal Democratic Party, has been ousted. How could the second largest party not have any ideas? The Socialist Party will definitely find ways to compete for the throne of prime minister.

Therefore, Japan’s political situation may be relatively chaotic in the next few years. The coalition formation of a multi-party cabinet also means constant fighting among the parties. It is estimated that Japan’s political situation will not stabilize until the Liberal Democratic Party returns to power.”

These judgments of Li Weidong were of course made by him from the perspective of hindsight. However, to the ears of others, Li Weidong's series of inferences were reasonable and well-founded.

The old man's expression looked a little solemn. Different people serve as prime ministers, and their policies in various fields such as economy, politics, and diplomacy are bound to be different. As a neighbor of Japan, China will also formulate corresponding policies towards Japan based on the Japanese rulers.

policy.

If the candidate for Japan's prime minister can be predicted in advance, the country can formulate targeted policies towards Japan, not only knowing itself and the enemy, but also seizing opportunities. This is a huge benefit.

The old man wrote down Hosokawa Morihi's name, and then asked: "Comrade Xiao Li, you just said that the problems in Japan's economy are structural problems. Can you explain in detail what structural problems there are?

?”

Li Weidong nodded: "The structural problems of Japan's economy are multifaceted. It is more complicated to explain in detail. I will briefly mention a few points. First, let's talk about the problems caused by Japan's bureaucracy..."

Li Weidong began to talk in detail.

The thirty years lost by the Japanese economy have always been a hot research topic for economists.

At first, people blamed Japan's economic recession on the Plaza Accord, believing that if the Plaza Accord had not been signed, Japan's economy would have continued to prosper.

However, Japan is not the only country that signed the Plaza Accord. Germany, France and the United Kingdom also signed the agreement, and they also faced the problem of the appreciation of the mark, franc and pound. Why did Japan lose 30 years, and

What's going on with Germany, France and the UK?

Germany, in particular, has very similar national conditions and industrial structure to Japan. At that time, its economic scale was not as large as Japan's. However, it was able to withstand the impact of the Plaza Accord and even became the leader of Europe more than ten years later.

So economists looked for reasons outside of the Plaza Accord, and soon discovered that the real reason for Japan's lost thirty years was Japan's structural problems. Even without the Plaza Accord, Japan's

Structural problems will break out sooner or later and deal a fatal blow to the Japanese economy.

The way to solve structural problems is not to promulgate a few stimulus policies, nor to add, reduce or modify some laws and regulations, but to rely on structural reforms.

Japan's rulers are obviously unaware of this, or are incapable of carrying out structural reforms. Therefore, in the past thirty years, they have always hoped to rely on economic policies to stimulate economic recovery, and various means of stimulating inflation have been used.

If it is used, it will only achieve some short-term effects at most, and there will still be no change at the overall economic level.

With Japan's bureaucracy, it is simply impossible to carry out structural reforms. However, without structural reforms, structural problems cannot be solved. The current Japanese economy has become an insurmountable situation.

For economists in the early 1990s, they did not have a clear understanding of structural problems, and many even attributed structural problems to policy and institutional factors.

Li Weidong began to talk about structural issues, listing mature views put forward by later economists, and successfully impressed the leaders and other scholars.

After Li Weidong finished speaking, the old man seemed to be still thinking about the structural issues Li Weidong just mentioned. It was not until more than ten seconds later that he came back to his senses and said:

"Entrepreneurs look at problems from a different perspective than academics. Comrade Xiao Li, you really have a very unique view on the Japanese economy, and the structural problems you mentioned in Japan also inspired me!"

"The leader was ridiculous, I was just talking nonsense." Li Weidong said modestly.

The leader shook his head: "You are not talking nonsense, especially those structural problems you just mentioned, Japan's structural problems. If you think about it carefully, they are all real, and there are some structural problems not only in Japan, but also in our country."

It may happen, so we should be vigilant!"

"It's okay, we can reform. Even if there are structural problems, I believe that with the wisdom of the leaders and the efforts of the Chinese people, we will be able to solve them." Li Weidong said.

"Reform! Yes, reform cannot stop. Not only must it not stop, it must continue to deepen!" The old man nodded, and then said to Li Weidong: "Next month, a lecture will be held here, and the target group will be cadres of various ministries and commissions.

Comrade, I hope you can come to this lecture."

Although Li Weidong didn't know the nature of the lecture, since it was personally invited by the leader, he certainly couldn't refuse, so Li Weidong immediately said, "Leader, I will definitely come to the lecture on time, study seriously and understand the content of the lecture."

But the leader laughed: "Comrade Xiao Li, you misunderstood, I didn't ask you to come and listen to the lecture, I wanted you to give the lecture!"

Not only Li Weidong, but everyone in the conference room showed surprised expressions.

Those scholars are more knowledgeable than Li Weidong. They know that only those who are at least academician-level are qualified to give lectures to ministry cadres.

But Li Weidong was only a twenty-five-year-old young man, but he was asked to give lectures, which made everyone a little stunned.

But the leader said: "Comrade Xiao Li, I just said that the structural problems you mentioned in Japan not only exist in Japan, but our country may also encounter it in the future development!

I let you talk about it just because I want you to talk about these structural problems and what mistakes Japan made in its economic development in the past forty years, which led to the emergence of these structural problems.

I hope that our cadres and comrades can learn lessons from the Japanese economy through your explanation and try to avoid making the same mistakes! So I hope you will not refuse."

The leader's words have already been mentioned for this reason, how dare Li Weidong refuse.

So Li Weidong nodded and replied: "Don't worry, leader, I will prepare this lecture carefully."

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