The Rebirth of the Financial Hegemon

Chapter 113 Openly challenging Thailand

Hongkong.

Jushi Capital Headquarters.

Zhao Jiangchuan was holding a thick stack of photos in his hand and looking at them.

The photos were taken very clearly.

It's so clear that you can clearly see the meaning of the text in the background.

Dozens of photos, taken near major banks in Thailand.

Bank of Thailand, Bangkok Bank, Standard Chartered Bank, Fuji Bank...

As long as banks in Thailand have currency exchange business, they have been photographed from different angles.

The angle is well grasped.

In addition to the long queues of people outside the bank, the logos of major banks can also be clearly seen.

After Zhao Jiangchuan flipped through it casually, he shouted to Ouyang Lan who was not far away.

"Little money fan, send these photos to those media outlets. Well, don't forget to ask them for information fees. This is first-hand information."

"..."

Ouyang Lan was speechless.

As Zhao Jiangchuan's woman, she didn't know anything.

But now, this guy doesn't even let go of the information fee for the photos.

That's not all.

Jushi Capital is also one of the major shareholders of the media outlets Zhao Jiangchuan mentioned.

I’m afraid this means that although flies are small, they are still meat!

Ouyang Lan rolled her eyes and went out.

Zhao Jiangchuan smiled, picked up the phone on the table and dialed.

Three seconds later, the call was connected.

"boss."

Zhao Jiangchuan casually grabbed a cigarette on the table and lit one. He took a deep breath before speaking.

"Liu Qiang, the feast can begin."

Singapore.

Jushi Capital Trading Department.

After Liu Qiang hung up the phone, the muscles on his face jumped a few times involuntarily.

After waiting for so long, it is finally time to reap the rewards.

"In the New York market, short sell 30,000 lots and enter..."

"Chicago market, close all the long positions in our hands in batches...Second brother, add 10,000 short lots in the Chicago market..."

"Xiao Si, clear out 20,000 long positions in the Singapore market, and add 20,000 short positions on the backhand..."

Traders in the global forward foreign exchange market have discovered that the Thai baht has changed.

The dollar exchange rate for Thai baht suddenly hit a huge amount. The price of Thai baht dropped from 23.288 to 23.588 in an instant.

Before traders could react to what was going on, there was a swarm of short-selling contracts on Thai baht-related contracts on major exchanges that could not be counted with the naked eye.

Three seconds.

The total transaction amount was US$300 million.

Driven by massive funds, the Thai baht was bombarded directly from 23.288 to 23.999 with a ninety-degree vertical line.

...

Bangkok, Bank of Thailand Governor's Office.

Sonny was yelling into the phone angrily.

"Damn it, you idiot, who told you to do this? Do you know what this means, you bastard."

At noon.

Sonny received a call from the commercial bank.

A branch official said that early this morning, the bank had an influx of customers requesting to exchange their Thai baht into U.S. dollars.

After receiving telegrams from multiple branches in succession, Sonny instinctively felt something was wrong.

The sudden appearance of so many people exchanging U.S. dollars in major commercial banks is definitely a conspiracy.

Sonny's response was swift.

He immediately arranged for people to go to major commercial banks to conduct investigations.

As the governor of the Sonny Central Bank, the energy that can be mobilized is extremely huge.

After receiving the order from various departments, relevant bank personnel and government agency personnel all went to investigate the ins and outs of the entire incident.

In normal times, it may be very difficult to catch a thief.

But at this critical moment, no one who received the order dared to slack off.

In just two hours, investigators found the source of the incident.

There was a man named Ananda, the promoter of this incident in Sathorn area.

But Sonny never expected that Superintendent Nitiwa, the person in charge of Sathorn who was investigating the matter, would use his authority to arrest Ananda openly.

Sonny was almost furious to death after receiving the news.

Thailand is a free market country.

Completely free flow of capital is fundamental to Thailand's development over the years.

Some time ago, in response to the international capital's attack on the Thai baht, Sonny had no choice but to implement the Leaky Cauldron Plan.

Later, he regretted it for a time.

Because using compulsory administrative intervention to force capital is no less than drinking poison to quench thirst.

Under absolute interests, no matter how powerful the rights are, they cannot fundamentally interfere with the flow of capital.

The mandatory administrative orders of the Leaky Cauldron Plan have lost the credibility of the government.

Currency is also the embodiment of sovereign credibility.

It is good that the Thai baht is stable. Once there is any trouble in the Thai baht, those capitals that have been forced to bear the loss of profits will definitely flee Thailand at all costs.

Therefore, when Sonny heard that Superintendent Nitiwa actually publicly arrested Ananda, he almost went crazy.

Judging from what has been passed on, Ananda is just a small role abandoned by the people behind this incident.

In terms of legal procedures, Ananda himself did not commit any illegal acts.

It is reasonable for him to go to the bank to handle the exchange business.

No one is qualified to arrest a person who handles exchange business normally.

Now, there have been runs on major banks.

This kind of run has happened in all free market countries around the world.

But no one has many good ways to deal with this kind of run.

The only way to deal with it is to mobilize a large amount of cash to accept it.

As long as there is ample cash flow, and through the comfort of the media and public figures, it is still possible to resolve this kind of run.

But Superintendent Nitiwa arrested Ananda like this, which will inevitably increase the level of public panic.

If the panic cannot be controlled, all banks in Thailand will be run down and collapsed.

No bank can afford unlimited runs.

Not even Bank of America.

"Ring ring ring..."

While Sonny was cursing at his subordinates, another phone on his desk rang rapidly.

"Hey, what did you say, damn it."

Sonny didn't care to scold his subordinates any more. He hung up the phone and ran all the way to the market trading department in the bank.

"Tony, what's going on?"

"It's very bad. In the spot market, a seller suddenly put out a selling order worth more than 3 billion US dollars. We are doing our best to take it, but judging from the other party's actions, this time it is fierce."

"Did you find out where the selling order was thrown out?"

"It's...it's Boulder Capital."

"How is this possible? How could it be Jushi Capital."

Sonny was stunned.

When international speculators attacked the Thai baht not long ago, Sunny discussed with his subordinates Jushi Capital, the largest holder of Thai baht positions in the market.

Judging from the long and short cross positions of Jushi Capital, the purpose of Jushi Capital is not to actively attack the Thai baht.

It seems that it is doing a conventional hedging.

This capital is likely to be a means of risk defense in the face of uncertainty about the Thai baht.

Judging from the final result, this judgment was not wrong.

When the baht price fell from 23 to 26, Jushi Capital's position shifted to the long side.

Standard Chartered Bank, a subsidiary of Jushi Capital, has taken over a large amount of Thai baht in the Hong Kong market. Jushi Capital's position size in forward markets such as Singapore is also as high as more than double its short positions.

Judging from this kind of cross-hedging positions between futures and cash, Jushi Capital is a real hedge fund.

And those international capitals with hedge fund names are the sharks who are making all-out attacks to suppress the Thai baht.

But now, why did Jushi Capital suddenly adjust its strategy to suppress the Thai baht.

"President Sonny, come here and take a look."

Just when Sonny was still wondering why Jushi Capital was selling the Thai baht when other international speculators were retreating, a staff member from the marketing department hurriedly shouted to Sonny.

Hong Kong's local financial channel.

The host introduced a special guest with a smile on his face.

“Today we are fortunate to invite Mr. Li Dapao, the chief investment adviser of Jushi Capital. Maybe you don’t know Mr. Li Dapao very well.

In mainland China, Mr. Li Dapao has a very huge influence. He is known as a breath of fresh air in the contemporary financial world. He has publicly warned of market risks at critical market points many times.

And Mr. Li Dapao is qualified to serve as the chief investment adviser of Jushi Capital. I think everyone has a reference for Mr. Li Dapao's ability.

Last year, Jushi Capital acquired Standard Chartered Bank in one fell swoop.

In the 1996 fund rankings, Jushi Capital's Jushi No. 1, Jushi No. 2, and Jushi No. 3 funds outperformed famous funds such as Jones, Tiger, AllianceBernstein, and Quantum.

Its annual total income reached 56%, which is very rare in financial history.

Ranked first in the world.

The funds under Jushi Capital can achieve such a terrifying record, which is inseparable from the contribution made by Mr. Li Dapao.

Mr. Li, can you share with everyone your investment experience, why you are always able to capture the most sensitive positions in the market, and why Jushi Capital can achieve this impressive record that is very rare in history. "

"Host, please stop praising me. If you do, I will be embarrassed."

"I didn't expect you to be so funny, Mr. Li, but I am not boasting but stating a fact. Everyone can see the returns of Jushi Capital's funds. As the chief investment adviser of Jushi Capital, I think your existence must be irreplaceable." of.

I heard that even the credit default swap contract signed when Jushi Capital was able to acquire Standard Chartered Bank included your suggestions, Mr. Li. I wonder if there is such a thing. "

"Actually, the credit default swap between the company and Standard Chartered Bank was mainly due to the boss's brilliance. My role was only a trivial one."

"Haha, Mr. Li, we all understand what you said. I think the audience in front of the TV understands what you mean.

However, what we want to know most now is what drove you to make the judgment that Thailand’s real estate prices will decline. I wonder, Mr. Li, if you can share your analysis ideas in this regard, which will be of great help to many investors’ analysis of the future. Might be of great help. "

"Well, it's actually very simple.

Thailand's economic start can be traced back to about 1976. At that time, due to the economic weakness of the European and American markets, Thailand's low labor costs and cheap raw materials attracted the enthusiasm of global investors. Driven by large-scale hot money, Thailand With the development of these two decades.

But we Chinese people have an old saying that goes like this.

When things reach their extremes, they must reverse; when they reach their peak, they must decline.

Three years ago, the U.S. economy, which had stagnated for a time, showed signs of recovery. By 1994, the U.S. economy could see a significant improvement.

That's why the Federal Reserve raised interest rates continuously from 1994 to 1995 in order to curb inflation.

In the past two years, the U.S. dollar has also risen from a low of 70 to a recent high of 79.

There is only one reason for the strength of the US dollar, which is the increased demand for US dollars.

This can also be said to be a reduction in demand for other currencies.

In our team’s investigation, we found that capital outflows are most serious in Southeast Asian market countries.

We said before that everything that goes great must come down.

Emerging market countries, led by Thailand, have experienced two decades of rapid development, while established European and American capital countries have experienced more than ten years of economic downturn.

In economic theory, this is called economic cyclicality, and it is an economic law that cannot be violated.

So when I found signs of capital outflows from Thailand, I made the judgment that Thailand's economic development had temporarily reached a bottleneck. The decline of assets is inevitable.

In fact, everyone can discover these things as long as they observe carefully.

The United States experienced the Great Recession that year.

Japan also entered a long recession cycle after the economic bubble burst in the past few years.

Neither the world's largest economy nor the second largest economy can avoid this cyclical law, and Thailand naturally cannot avoid this economic law.

Well, rules are no longer rules if they can be broken.

These combined reasons are the main basis for my belief that Thailand’s real estate industry will decline. "

"Mr. Li, are you saying that you are not optimistic about Thailand's economy in the next few years?"

"Well, it can indeed be understood this way. A country's economic recession is always accompanied by several very special signs. For example, stock market crash, real estate crash, currency depreciation, etc.

Take Japan for example.

After Japan's economic bubble burst, Japan's stock market has experienced a bear market for six years. Property prices in Tokyo have also dropped from the original low of 30 million yen to the point where they can only afford a pair of leather shoes, and the yen has also dropped. Naturally, it has entered a downward cycle.

Coincidentally, Thailand's current stock market has dropped from its highest point of 1,798 points to 440 points, and property prices have also dropped by more than 50%.

I believe that before long, the Thai baht will also enter a downward channel like the Japanese yen and the US dollar did. "

"..."

The TV show continues to play.

But Sonny in front of the TV already had the urge to smash the TV.

He hated that face on TV.

That face with a pair of gold-rimmed glasses and a lewd smile that makes people disgusted at first sight.

Sonny had never been so disgusted by just seeing a face as he was today.

He always thought that he was not a person who judged people by their appearance.

But all this was broken by the wretched young man on TV.

Damn Boulder Capital, damn Li Dabao.

You are openly challenging the whole of Thailand.

"Bang bang..."