Chong Sheng 1977Nian Cong Zhi Qing Kai Shi

The next day, as soon as the market opened, SIMEX's Thai baht contract quickly rose from "26.42" closed yesterday to "25.98", but the short side did not give up, and continued to attack the Thai baht from the two markets for a day.

However, this time they encountered the joint intervention of the two central banks. The Lijiapo Monetary Authority and the Bank of Thailand jointly used more than 12 billion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves, not only stabilizing the Thai baht within the fluctuation range, but even slightly increasing the quotation of the Thai baht in the spot market. , The speculative capital of the short side suffered a double blow, especially the main force, which suffered a bit heavy losses.

Who is the main force of the short side?

Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund, these two funds can be said to be brother funds. They have joined forces many times before and achieved a lot. This time, when Quantum waved its flag, Tiger immediately followed.

At the moment, Tiger Fund is in trouble, a lot of trouble—the Thai baht overnight interest rate for lending to foreigners by Thai commercial banks soared to 1,000% at the beginning, while the previous channel of Tiger Fund has become 1,200%.

Julian Robertson had previously predicted that the Thai government would raise interest rates to deal with the impact of the foreign exchange market, and made corresponding preparations. But he never expected that the Thai government would dare to prohibit Thai local commercial banks from lending funds to foreign speculators, which made his preparations come to naught.

The original wishful thinking of Tiger Fund was to lend a short-term huge loan through Thai local commercial banks and sell it in the market.

This kind of short-term loan is ultra-short-term such as 7 days or 14 days. After the loan expires, you can borrow the corresponding amount of Thai baht from other banks, repay the previous Thai baht loan, and maintain your position through repeated cycles of borrowing.

Generally speaking, interest rates such as overnight lending, 7-day lending, and 14-day lending show a gradual upward trend. Although the overnight lending rate is the lowest, it is impossible to short the Thai baht by borrowing overnight lending. The time is too short.

The 7-day and 14-day loans are highly operable, and Tiger Fund can use this period of time to destroy the Thai baht.

Now it is impossible. Tiger Fund can no longer borrow from local commercial banks in Thailand to extend loans. If they want to maintain their positions, they must borrow Thai baht from multinational banks with Thai baht business at an interest rate of 1000% or even higher.

Tiger Fund's office, Julian was angry, "How much did we lose in the futures market?"

In addition to borrowing Thai baht, Tiger Fund, like other hedge funds shorting the Thai baht, also aggressively shorted the Thai baht exchange rate contract. When Thailand announced two measures to deal with hedge funds, the futures contract responded immediately, and Tiger Fund suffered heavy losses.

"$24 million."

Robert Cetron, Head of Emerging Markets at Tiger Fund, before becoming Head of Emerging Markets at Tiger Fund, he was in charge of emerging investment markets at Fidelity Group, the world's largest fund company, for four years. He has experienced many world-renowned financial market events, such as shorting the Japanese market in 1990 and shorting the Mexican peso in 1994.

In SIMEX, LIFFE and IMM, Tiger Fund sold more than 700 Thai baht short contracts. The strong rebound of the Thai baht not only wiped out their previous profits, but also cost them a very heavy price.

After Cetron finished speaking, he glanced at Julian carefully, and tentatively asked: "Should we stop the loss and leave?"

"No!" Julian directly vetoed, "Not only will we not close the position, but we will further increase our short-selling efforts until Thailand admits defeat."

Although he suffered a heavy loss, Julian didn't care about it. He was a patient person, and a temporary loss would not shake his determination.

"But...according to our current position, the daily interest is a huge sum." Cetron felt that it was necessary to remind Julian that it would be calculated based on the current interest rate of the Thai baht that can be borrowed, as long as the Thai baht does not announce depreciation one day, Their cost of ownership is astronomical.

"How much?"

Julian's face was calm, as if he was talking about something that had nothing to do with him, but the slight trembling of his hands betrayed the true thoughts in his heart.

Cetron picked up the pen and calculated on the paper, and raised his head after waiting for a few interest, his face had become very ugly, and he said in a stuttering voice: "If we want to maintain our position, the interest we have to pay every day is 13 million yuan. Dollar."

"so much?"

Although Julian was prepared, he still couldn't help being surprised when he heard the exact number.

However, he did not give up his determination to short the Thai baht, he just muttered: "It seems that the Thai baht must be destroyed as soon as possible."

Seeing that Julian had no intention of giving up at all, Cetron could only shake his head and turn to do his own work.

The situation encountered by Tiger Fund is happening in other hedge funds and commercial banks that have no business in Thailand. All short sellers are aware of a problem. If the Thai baht cannot be destroyed in the next day or two, it will be difficult for them to maintain their positions.

They have come to the Wujiang River, and there are no Jiangdong elders on the other side. They can only fight with their backs, either Thailand dies or their own. They want to sell Thai baht wherever they can sell short.

Now that Thailand has formulated measures, it is natural to think about what will happen once the measures are implemented. The Bank of Thailand is not immersed in the joy of the Thai baht being held. The senior management of the Bank of Thailand, led by Malakanuan, is calling allies. The content of the call was nothing more than "brother save me".

The relationship between Li Jiapo and Thailand can be said to be bitter. The air side embraces Thailand's grass, and it will definitely hit Li Jiapo as a rabbit. Moreover, Li Jiapo has long thought of becoming one of the world's financial centers. The financial policy is very open. Thailand can use Li Jiapo couldn't use this method at all.

Therefore, Hu Cidao of the Lijiapo Financial Management Bureau did not wait for Mala Jianuan to call him, and he had already called him on his own initiative.

With both kind reminders and practical assistance, Li Jiapo organized another six to seven billion US dollars, preparing to support the sworn brother in Thailand to the end, and implement the so-called aid to Thailand to resist the United States.

For Li Jiapo, the best situation is to keep the enemy out of the country. Before the short-selling international hot money has grown, let them fall into the sand. Also defeat the Lion City.

Malaganuan was naturally grateful for Hu Zhidao's timely help. What is a brother, this is it.

...

For some large investment banks and funds, there is not only one trading team, and there is not only one investment strategy. Although Nan's financial system is generally bearish on the Thai baht, in terms of details, it doesn't hurt to be bullish for a while.

Scarlett Fund has several investment managers who are bullish on the Thai baht in the short term. Together, they keenly seized the opportunity of the appreciation of the Thai baht, used a little leverage, and made a small profit of more than 10 million US dollars.

As long as the profits are maintained until the end of the year, they can get a lot of year-end bonuses.

For Nanguo Bank, although it does not have a branch in Thailand, the previous real estate plan of Creative Real Estate in Thailand, as well as its own loan plan, coupled with Zhao Shixian's short-selling plan, began to save Thai baht a few years ago. There are a total of 150 billion baht, which is why Zhao Shixian doesn't panic about the position.

However, although from the perspective of Nanshi as a whole, Nanguo Bank has the obligation to provide bullets to PY Securities, but from an individual point of view, Nanguo Bank also has to take care of its own profitability, so the 150 billion baht is not all lying there. Instead, they take advantage of the increase in the overnight lending rate to put funds in the lending market to earn some interest.

In fact, for Nanshi, he does not pay too much attention to profiting from shorting the Thai baht in the spot/futures market. A billion dollars is nothing compared to Nan's plan to establish a base in Thailand.

Of course, this is relatively speaking. In fact, shorting the Thai baht is also part of Nam’s Thailand strategy. Nam’s vision is relatively long-term, aiming at the recovery period after Thailand’s economic bubble is burst.

Just by analyzing the previous style of the IMF, we can roughly infer the terms of its loans to Thailand. Broadly speaking, they are financial opening, market opening, and corporate bankruptcy.

Along the way, Wangmu Fruit Industry (Thailand) was reorganized into a comprehensive group "Thailand", which appeared as a local Thai company and merged high-quality small and medium-sized enterprises in Thailand that were on the verge of bankruptcy.

Along the way, it appeared as a foreign capital, merged and bought shares in Thai financial companies, opened a Thai branch of Nanguo Bank, bought shares in local commercial banks, and followed Thailand's policies, taking as much shares as it could.

When the Thai government requires foreign capital to sell part of the shares, or stipulates that the shareholding ratio must be reduced after a few years at the time of purchase, Nanshi Foreign Capital can transfer all or part of the shares to Tainan Group.

In addition, when Thailand's economy is in a recession and its industrial development is stagnant, it will definitely focus on agriculture, which is already very advantageous. For the Nan family, it is also happy to see the results.

In addition, there is real estate. In the Bangkok area alone, houses worth more than 10 billion U.S. dollars have not been sold, and most of the mortgages that account for more than half of commercial bank loans have become bad debts. Revitalizing real estate is a must for the Thai government in the future. Things to do.

Want to revitalize, one is to expand domestic demand, and the other is to attract foreign people to buy.

The Thai government wants to attract foreign investment to buy houses. The only thing they can do is to relax the previous stricter regulations on foreigners owning Thai real estate. In addition, they continue to be ambiguous about the sex industry that has been judged illegal, so as to stimulate Thailand's tourism industry. Rapid development.

Tainan Group is a local company in Thailand. In theory, it has the same interests as the Thai government. It is the duty of Tainan Group to help solve the problem of unsold houses. Through enthusiasm and hardship, it has earned a small profit of one or two billion U.S. dollars. And it should be.

The maximum profit is just that, and it cannot be more. If the actual amount exceeds this figure, it must belong to foreign investors. As a local enterprise, Tainan Group is naturally patriotic.